[ingliz]

Gloom and doom.

I was reading that they have found reinfections in S. Korea and so any immunity gained could be very short lived with this virus.

If this is true. Even if the CFR is not as high as first thought. It could kill millions over time.

[Ter]

More gloom and doom :

It might not be possible to develop an effective vaccine against it.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... s-21890093

[ingliz]

Quoting the article:

Seoul 18 April 2020 (CNN)

In South Korea, health officials are trying to solve a mystery: why 163 people who recovered from coronavirus have retested positive... The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans to test 400 specimens from people who have been infected and recovered to see how much -- if any -- immunity having Covid-19 might give people. [KCDC deputy director Kwon Joon-wook] says those tests may take several weeks.

* My emphasis

[fokker]

@ingliz
Those patients most probably never fully recovered and test is unable to detect very low virus concentrations. What is not mentioned in these articles if these patients where virus got reactivated were able to infect anyone and what was the severity of their 2nd infection.

[ingliz]

@fokker

They do say it's mutating and that can go either way.

[Pants-of-dog]

It is also possible that some people are naturally immune, some can develop immunity through exposure, and some will never be immune.

My guess is that what I just said is true, and the virus is mutating, and other things are also making it more complicated.

[QatzelOk]

More gloom and doom :

It might not be possible to develop an effective vaccine against it.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... s-21890093

Vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective.
They often have worse side effects than the thing they were designed to cure. (or designed to make money curing)
They can't keep up with new mutations of viruses, and viruses are constantly mutating.
Bill Gates supports vaccines because he has deals going with Big Pharma firms, and really knows how to make deals and make money! We may be living through an infomercial staged by his team.

1. According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.

2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not recorded.

3. 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.

4. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality. Up to 60% of all Covid19-related deaths have occurred in particularly vulnerable nursing homes.

5. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).

6. Normal overall mortality in the US is about 8000 people per day, in Germany about 2600 people and in Italy about 1800 people per day. Influenza mortality in the US is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 1500 people per winter.

7. Strongly increased death rates, as in northern Italy, can be influenced by additional risk factors such as very high air pollution and microbial contamination as well as a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick due to mass panic and lockdown measures.

8. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent Great Britain and the US, a serious overload of hospitals, notably by the flu, is not unusual. In addition, up to 15% of doctors and nurses currently have to self-quarantine, even if they develop no symptoms. ...

(There are 11 more of these "truth bombs" if you visit the site)

[QatzelOk]

Here are the findings of Professor Johan Giesecke, "one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government." Sweden is one of the few rich, Western countries that kept its businesses and schools open, and went with protecting seniors and suggesting voluntary social distancing:

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

1. UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
2. The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
3. This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
4. The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
5. The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
6. The paper was very much too pessimistic
7. Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
8. The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
9. The results will eventually be similar for all countries
10. Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
11. The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
12. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

[B0ycey]

12. At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

This isn't the first time that this has been suggested. When the UK ordered antibody tests from China they were believed to be faulty because of the amount of positives they were getting and now they sit idol doing nothing. Is that an indicator of things to come? I don't know. Perhaps they were faulty. Again I don't know. But what I do know is like the UK, Swedens casualty rate and cases is plateauing. Sweden are having the same results with only a fraction of protection measures and without being in lockdown as the UK are having being in lockdown. Remember initially they had the same strategy. If both nations do have a high infection rate with a motality rate below .5% that wouldn't be surprising because ultimately the horse had already bolted and we are seeing the aftermath now.

Sweden I suspect will be the real winner in 6 months. Gates was right, only they are going to get the A grade.

[late]

Sweden I suspect will be the real winner in 6 months. Gates was right, only they are going to get the A grade.

"The Swedish Public Health Agency has collaborated on a new study that estimates one-third of all Stockholm residents will have been infected with COVID-19 by May 1. That amounts to approximately 600,000 people in Sweden’s capital city."

"Last week, 22 scientists from across Sweden claimed the country’s relatively relaxed approach was not working."

That remains to be seen.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/21/sweden-600000-coronavirus-infections-in-stockholm-by-may-1-model-estimates/#42cfe83378d6

[B0ycey]

That remains to be seen.

...but there isn't anything extraordinary in Swedens cases and fatalities. It is true that compared to other stricter Scandinavian nations their fatality rate is higher per mn, but nothing out of the ordinary for a virus with a very high infection rate and a low mortality rate that Giesecke suggested this could be. Also their cases and fatality rates are plateauing. And if they begin to fall in the next month and align with the UKs trend that will basically be a big huge thorn in the ass for those who suggested lockdowns are required at all. That isn't to say that protections and advice shouldn't be given. But that the protections and advice didn't need to be so strict in the form of a lockdown.

[late]

...but there isn't anything extraordinary in Swedens cases and fatalities.

Yet.

As I said about a month ago, every option is a gamble. There are a lot of unknowns here, and pandemic disease specialists know how bad bad can get. That's the conservative approach...

Something you may have missed, is that study I linked to suggests they are really ramping up testing. That can really help.

It's something we should be doing a lot more of, as well.

[B0ycey]

Something you may have missed, is that study I linked to suggests they are really ramping up testing. That can really help.

It's something we should be doing a lot more of, as well.

Well I'm not against testing. In fact I am all for it. It gives you the best indication for everything and helps governments work out their next steps. And I don't think it is a surprise that those nations who have tested the most also have the lowest mortality rates. Not that this makes Covid-19 less/more deadly in those countries. But that it indicates that it isn't as deadly as many fear.

[Rugoz]

...but there isn't anything extraordinary in Swedens cases and fatalities. It is true that compared to other stricter Scandinavian nations their fatality rate is higher per mn

Several times as high in fact.

And if they begin to fall in the next month and align with the UKs trend that will basically be a big huge thorn in the ass for those who suggested lockdowns are required at all.

Nope, because different countries were on different trajectories.

[Rich]

So Sweden has less deaths per head than the UK and it seems to have peaked. And they are now talking about easing measures even further.

[QatzelOk]

So Sweden has less deaths per head than the UK and it seems to have peaked. And they are now talking about easing measure even further.

And they didn't shut down their economy and stress everyone to death with end-time measures that put everyone under house arrest.

If it turns out this was just another flu bug, why were these measures promoted so much in commercial media?

Are they up to their old tricks of selling things - cars, oil, banking, wars against Iraq - and now, perhaps, vaccines?

Has Bill Gates turned the WHO into a vaccine salesman for Big Pharma?

[B0ycey]

Several times as high in fact.

Sure. But they (other Scandinavian countries) need to loosen their lockdown measures, which they are now doing, whereas Sweden don't and their healthcare has never was put under complete strain.

Also with low infection rates, these countries are more at risk of a second wave I might add. And if we use the Spanish flu as an example of what if... a second wave of a virus that has been manipulated by isolation is more likely to be deadlier than if it was left alone due to mutation selection.

Sweden is being judged today. But today under their strategy it will always look bad compared to those who over reacted. But those who over reacted now have to come up with a plan to get out of lockdown without spooking their populous and to also justify an increase in death and infection. In six months time Sweden will be the posterboy whilst everyone else pisses around with the half measures approach and with high death figures.

Nope, because different countries were on different trajectories.

Then you misunderstood. They are currently on the same trajectory! and if they head downwards in the next month along with the UK that needs explaining. It certainly wouldn't justify lockdown I might add.

[Wulfschilde]

deadly enough to keep whitey indoors but not deadly enough to stop the soldiers of Allah: https://summit.news/2020/03/27/french-o ... oid-riots/

A top government official in France has admitted that draconian lockdown measures being imposed on the rest of the population shouldn’t be implemented in the country’s migrant-heavy ghettos in order to prevent riots.

In a letter leaked to magazine Le Canard Enchaine, French Secretary of State to the Ministry of the Interior Laurent Nunez advises, “It is not a priority to enforce closings in certain neighborhoods and to stop gatherings.”

In a separate video conference call, Nunez told other officials that restricting movement and shutting down shops in France’s infamous banlieues risks igniting violent social disorder if enforced too rigorously.

people who just DGAF live life normally off of your tax dollars, you still pay taxes when you arent even allowed to work. its what you white males deserve

[Rugoz]

Sure. But they (other Scandinavian countries) need to loosen their lockdown measures, which they are now doing, whereas Sweden don't and their healthcare has never was put under complete strain.

Sweden could avoid the lockdown because it wasn't as strongly affected, just like its neighbors. You could argue Denmark/Norway etc. overreacted, but then again they have a fraction of the deaths as a consequence.

I just read that about ~5.5% of people in Geneva had the virus. Geneva was affected strongly with 95 cases per 10k (in Sweden its 15 per 10k, though they don't test as much).

So you would need to infect maybe 13 times as many in Geneva to get immunity (to get to 70%), and about ~81 times as many in Sweden.

Great strategy .

Edit: According to this estimate, the fatality rate in Geneva is 0.76%.

[late]

Great strategy

We're in Round One of a ten round bout, and they keep declaring victory.

Kinda childish.