412,000 Missing Covid-19 Deaths - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Most countries are undercounting Covid deaths either intentionally or because they only count people who died in hospitals. A survey of the excess deaths data of 35 countries found that 412,00 Covid deaths are missing from the official count. In other words, instead of 1.4 millions deaths, we already have nearly 2 million Covid deaths as we are speaking.

If all countries were to be taken into account, the real death count is likely to be near 3 millions. With the current exponential growth, the total count will likely be at least 5 millions before the pandemic is over, even if vaccines can be rolled out swiftly. Without the various containment measures and lockdowns, the death toll would be much higher.

Since January it was clear that this would happen. It could have been prevented if timely measures had been taken. The pandemic deniers have the blood of millions of their fellow human beings on their hands. Words do have consequences. If Covid-19 had struck during a major crisis like WW1, the death count would have been has high as for the Spanish flu.

The highest numbers for unaccounted Covid deaths are in Mexico and the US. The US has about 92,000 more deaths than officially counted, which means that the US death count is already approaching 350,000 in less than a year.

Germany as well as Scandinavian countries like Norway and Finland have hardly any excess deaths, while Sweden has the highest number of excess deaths in 150 years.

412,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak

At least 412,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.

Over the last several months, far more people have died in most of these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed. These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway.

Mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. In most places, the disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths reflect limited testing for the virus rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, more than 1.4 million people have died of the coronavirus worldwide as of Nov. 27.

But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, researchers say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.

Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany.

Where excess deaths are on the rise again
After large spikes in excess mortality in the spring, most countries across Europe returned to normal levels in the summer. But a second wave of serious illness returned in the fall, leading to an uptick in mortality once again.

In Belgium and Switzerland, the peaks in mortality in the fall are even greater than in the spring.

These estimates were made for each country by comparing the total number of people who died this year to the number of deaths that would be expected given local mortality trends, adjusted to account for changes over time. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in a similar way.

It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.

“At this stage, it’s a partial snapshot,” said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. “It’s one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.”

Where excess deaths have never returned to normal
The virus was last to hit Latin America, and excess deaths still have not returned to normal levels. Mexico recorded at least 189,200 more deaths than usual compared to the same period in previous years — about two times higher than the reported number of Covid-19 deaths during that time.

And in the United States, cases of the virus are headed toward a third peak, and more deaths are likely to be recorded in the coming weeks.

Not all countries have seen excess deaths
In a handful of countries there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. The reasons for this are varied and will become clearer in the months ahead as countries process and certify deaths.

In Norway, Denmark and Finland, demographers say the low mortality is due in part to a less severe flu season last winter — but also because these countries were quick to implement severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain.

Age breakdowns in mortality data will also provide a clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. Using relative age-standardized mortality rates, Britain’s Office for National Statistics found that Spain had the highest rate of all European countries during the peak of the pandemic.

Even taking into account differences in mortality by age, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.

Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”

To estimate expected deaths, we fit a linear model to reported deaths in each country from 2015 to January 2020. The model has two components — a linear time trend to account for demographic changes and a smoothing spline to account for seasonal variation. For countries limited to monthly data, the model includes month as a fixed effect rather than using a smoothing spline.

Some countries have less historical data available. For countries with three or fewer years of data, the model uses a simple average of deaths in the observed years. For the United Kingdom, the model accounts for the number of bank holidays in a given week, since deaths are not registered during bank holidays.

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