[Puffer Fish]

College Closings Signal Start of a Crisis in Higher Education

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-n ... -education

Colleges in Massachusetts and New England are closing, part of a wider trend of declining college enrollment in the country.

Massachusetts and New England have long been the "center of education" in the country, and many students from other parts of the country have traditionally moved across the country to go to colleges there, so this is a significant thing.

It looks like the college education bubble is popping.


U.S. college attendance is falling

For years, America's college campuses swelled with more and more students. But enrollment peaked in 2010 at just over 21 million students. Attendance has dropped every year since.

By the fall of 2014 there were 812,069 fewer students walking around college campuses.

There are several likely reasons for this trend.

First, job opportunities in the economy are improving, so there are fewer people deciding to wait it out getting another degree.

Or perhaps more troubling, it may be that the job market has become saturated with degrees and a college degree isn't conferring as much value as it used to. If that's the case, some prospective students may be deciding that the huge investment isn't worth it.

Another factor, demographics in the country are changing and there are more poor people. College may be becoming a little less obtainable for a larger share of the overall population. 1 out of 3 people in the U.S. is an immigrant or a child under the age of 18 with at least one immigrant parent.

Lastly, college attendance may have reached its peak in 2010 and this may have been unsustainable. Basically, the people who wanted to go back to college have already done so, many with Masters and PhD degrees now.

https://bryanalexander.org/trends/highe ... 017-again/

University of Massachusetts President Marty Meehan spoke of the "existential threat" facing the higher education sector, especially in New England: decreasing enrollment that is set to be exacerbated within the next decade by a significant drop in the U.S. birth rate due to the 2008 economic recession.​

https://www.boston.com/news/education/2 ... ew-england - article from March 25, 2019


I think part of what is happening is demographics in the country are changing, there are fewer white children, and fewer parents can afford to send their children to college. Also, since the 2008 Recession, more people were finding there weren't really enough higher paying "college-type" jobs for all these college graduates, so families and people are a little more questioning about whether the time and money cost of college is really worth it.
However, a lot of this effect is being countered by the surging Asian population. Which is probably to say the actual underlying issue is much bigger and we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

[Puffer Fish]

Time Magazine has released an article titled "Too Many High School Seniors Are Turning Away from College Altogether". (May 2023)
They also cite a survey that says that suggests that more than half of Americans do not even think college is worth the investment.

In April, a Wall Street Journal-NORC poll found that 56% of Americans think that a college degree is not worth the cost, the highest rate in the survey’s ten-year history. These attitudes are also reflected in the actions of our youngest generation, as fewer students opt to pursue a college degree. In February, the National College Clearinghouse reported the sixth straight year of declining enrollment in 2- or 4-year colleges. In 2021, there were 1.8 million fewer undergraduates enrolled in college than there were in 2017.

Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds Confidence in value of a degree plummeted among women and senior citizens during pandemic, Wall Street Journal, Douglas Belkin, March 31, 2023

[Rancid]

Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education

What does this even fucking mean?

[MistyTiger]

The US charges too much for tuition. Other countries do not charge nearly as much. But in the US, employers can disregard foreign degrees if they want to. I knew a woman who had a high level degree from Ukraine but they still treated her like someone with a lower degree.

People have seen the figures for how many college alumni are in debt. The struggle to repay is real.

Most of the student debt is owned by the federal government. So actually, if less students are taking out loans, the student debt will be a little less. The number I saw is 1.6 trillion.

Millions of Americans have student loan debt, amassing to more than $1.6 trillion by the end of last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

It’s the result of a decades-long explosion in borrowing coupled with soaring education costs.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/27/politics ... on%20costs.

Why can't the US lower the cost? I know the professors and staff need salary, but there has to be another way to pay them.

[Politics_Observer]

@MistyTiger

Americans have to be smart in choosing a school. You want to start at a good community college that is cheap, put in for financial aid to get grants, and apply to as many scholarships as possible. Then, apply to a major 4-year institution that is in state, offers an affordable cost for the best value of education. You don't have to attend an expensive institution or an institution that is out of state to get a solid college education that is valuable to the market. You do need to major in a field that pays well too.

I think Rancid nailed it based on some of his posts when it comes to intelligently choosing a good college while minimizing your costs and maximizing your value (it's Game Theory, minimizing cost while maximizing return). In terms of Game Theory, a poor person would have to choose an institution and appropriate field that is closest to his or her means that provides the cheapest cost with the highest return.

[Unthinking Majority]

I think it's just demographics changing. Gen Y/millennials are out of school. It's the same reason every McDonalds in my city turned into a McCafe 10 years ago.

[MistyTiger]

@MistyTiger

Americans have to be smart in choosing a school. You want to start at a good community college that is cheap, put in for financial aid to get grants, and apply to as many scholarships as possible. Then, apply to a major 4-year institution that is in state, offers an affordable cost for the best value of education. You don't have to attend an expensive institution or an institution that is out of state to get a solid college education that is valuable to the market. You do need to major in a field that pays well too.

I think Rancid nailed it based on some of his posts when it comes to intelligently choosing a good college while minimizing your costs and maximizing your value (it's Game Theory, minimizing cost while maximizing return). In terms of Game Theory, a poor person would have to choose an institution and appropriate field that is closest to his or her means that provides the cheapest cost with the highest return.

Not everyone is smart when they make choices. Most people consider a major because they just think about the money they could earn in the future. But say if you study pharmacology but then 3 years into the program you realize that you hate studying pharmacology and studying all the biology and biochemical science courses...but the tuition has been paid already. The loan has already been used and still needs to be repaid. Pharmacology is difficult. I think it's a 6 year program and then you still need to get some internship/practice hours before you earn your license or other professional certification to become a licensed pharmacist.

I was Pre-Law and I knew about the high pay and long hours. I thought I could handle it. But luckily I didn't apply and go to Law School only to realize that the field is not for me. I see now that it would not fit me. It's so heavy on procedures and the language can give anyone a headache.

But some people just go farther into a field and realize a bit late that they just cannot cope with all the stress and the job expectations and challenges. It happens. But the money has been wasted. How many people waste money on college because they can't seem to find a career that fits them?

I went to a community college at first for accounting, but its purpose was only to make it easier for me to transfer back into my alma mater. Besides that, I still had to retake several courses and the university courses were much more in-depth than the community college classes. I actually should have left the community college many years earlier than I did. The university provided a better foundation in the basics. Fortunately, transfer students can skip some of the Freshman courses that traditional business students take. So that was a definite plus.

[Politics_Observer]

@MistyTiger

So are you suggesting that the taxpayers flip the bill for college kids to "find themselves" and spend money recklessly? If not, then what alternative solution do you propose that wouldn't be a waste of money for anybody?

[late]

The college I went to, Camp Nasson in the Pines, died in the 1970s. A lot of colleges died back then, when the Boomer surge ended.

So this is nothing new...

However, what we have now is a mess. College debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, and that's insane and evil.

My 2 cents is that we should generously support STEM education. We might offer loans that require half payment as long as you have a STEM job. I'd be willing to cover all of it for teachers, assuming we upgrade teaching standards.

Anyway, we need to do something, what we have now sucks dead male bovine reproductive members.

[MistyTiger]

@MistyTiger

So are you suggesting that the taxpayers flip the bill for college kids to "find themselves" and spend money recklessly? If not, then what alternative solution do you propose that wouldn't be a waste of money for anybody?

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just stating my opinion and what I've observed over the years. I don't have any solutions.

[Politics_Observer]

@MistyTiger

Well, we wouldn't want to waste taxpayer money un-necessarily to allow young people to "find themselves." If you are going to school you have to make a commitment and stick to it and be serious and endure the hardships that come with it. No degree worth having is going to be easy to get.

[MistyTiger]

@MistyTiger

Well, we wouldn't want to waste taxpayer money un-necessarily to allow young people to "find themselves." If you are going to school you have to make a commitment and stick to it and be serious and endure the hardships that come with it. No degree worth having is going to be easy to get.

I just thought of something. Remember those college savings funds? I think more people should open up savings accounts for their young children and let the funds build for 20 years. They could also set aside some investments for their children. This way young students would be able to borrow less money which would put less strain on taxpayers.

If more people saved up money for years, there would probably be less debt in the US. In some countries, they do not use credit cards, people actually have to have funds in the bank in order to purchase goods.

[Politics_Observer]

@MistyTiger

Unfortunately, a lot of parents do not plan for their children's future. Part of this is due to a lack of education on the parent's part. Parents play a key role in the success of their children into adulthood. Yet, I think, many parents don't really seem to care about the success of their children. I know of some parents who are able to save money for their kid's college education but simply don't make it a priority or don't even try.

But the parents also might be concerned about how serious a child is about being academically successful. A parent can't force a child to be academically successful. They can encourage them to do so and punish them for not studying and trying their best in school. Which I think they should. Still, it's no guarantee of success for the child.

Regardless, parents should save for their kid's college education, if they are able to. It is their child and their responsibility. Personally, I wouldn't have any children unless I was sure I could pay for a child's college education and provide a good future for that child. Why have a child only to doom them to poverty or have the odds against them to have a bright future? If there is not enough money in a household to give a child a good chance at having a bright future, then simply don't have children.

My parents helped me out as best they could. But they didn't have the money to pay for my college education. Fortunately, Uncle Sam was willing to pay for my education in return for serving in the military.

[Puffer Fish]

The US charges too much for tuition. Other countries do not charge nearly as much.

Maybe American colleges are charging too much.
Anecdotally, there have been some reports of price collusion, even among public universities. (There are all sorts of ways to skirt the laws and all sorts of loopholes, so the law does not apply in an obvious plain way)

Maybe American colleges are also spending too much. A lot of that money doesn't end up going towards actual education.
Many of these schools are spending huge amounts on luxurious amenities to attract students or expensive buildings, or the upper echelons of administration are siphoning off large amounts of money.

Then there's also the problem of predatory lending for college loans to students who are unlikely to be able to pay the money back. Government guarantees all the student loans, so the lender ends up getting paid, while the borrower is stuck in a terrible financial situation for half their life.

There are a lot of issues here, each of them somewhat complicated with no obvious simple solution.

[Puffer Fish]

What does this even fucking mean?

It means they're losing faith that personally paying for college is worth it.

But in a Leftist's mind, that's never the question, is it?

[MistyTiger]

It means they're losing faith that personally paying for college is worth it.

But in a Leftist's mind, that's never the question, is it?

How would you know what's in a leftist's mind? Are you a leftist?

[late]

I think it's just demographics changing. Gen Y/millennials are out of school. It's the same reason every McDonalds in my city turned into a McCafe 10 years ago.

Good point.

But it's not just demographics. The cost has gone up, even with some state schools. And Republicans made it so you can't erase college debt in bankruptcy. Which is straight out of the 1800s...

The risk/reward balance has changed completely from when I was a kid, and dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

[wat0n]

It would be more useful to see the enrollment by major, for all we know all those colleges were specialized in the humanities - which are not a great deal, financially, for students.

[Puffer Fish]

And Republicans made it so you can't erase college debt in bankruptcy. Which is straight out of the 1800s...

This is a huge issue, that probably deserves its own separate discussion.
Republicans insisted that college debt could not be erased in bankruptcy because government was guaranteeing the private sector loans made to students. The idea is that if a student went into default (could no longer keep paying) on their loans, then government would then be stuck with obligation to pay the private sector lender, on the student's behalf. So they wanted to make sure government would be able to collect that money from the borrower.
Students tend to be younger and irresponsible, so they were afraid if the debt could simply be eliminated through bankruptcy, like ordinary debt, there would be a big problem. The other thing is they viewed education as a "lifetime benefit" that cannot be repossessed like a car or house can, and that if you have higher lifetime earning potential, you should have to pay for that. And lastly, there was a view that government had to be the one to guarantee the student loans, otherwise the private sector would be too reluctant to, there would be too much risk, and the interest rates on those loans would be impractically high.

[Puffer Fish]

The risk/reward balance has changed completely from when I was a kid, and dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

Part of this could be the changing economy, with fewer good opportunities; the other part of it could be that when a larger percentage of the total population have a college degree, that college degree confers less individual benefit. (In other words the job applicant does not stand out as much from everyone else) There also seems to be some anecdotal evidence that with so many college graduates, the competition is pushing pay levels down in typical jobs that college graduates do. (More people competing to do those jobs)

In older times, if you got a college degree, you would be considered cream of the crop. Your employer would be more likely to consider you for a management position.

I was even told of one story, that may have happened around 2004 to 2008, about a company that fired an accounting manager that had worked there over 15 years and told him they were firing him because he did not have a college degree. But told him if he went back to school and got the degree they would consider rehiring him. He was an older middle aged man, maybe 58, and he wasn't able to find a similar job somewhere else, at that time.
Apparently that company felt like they were in a position to picky.