Austria's presidential vote must be repeated - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14697615
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/austria-court-to-rule-on-rerun-of-presidential-elections/2016/07/01/658a3bea-3f68-11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html

In a move that could turn into the next blow to the EU after Britain’s exit vote, Austria’s highest court on Friday ordered a rerun of the country’s presidential election. The landmark decision gives a right-wing candidate the chance to turn his narrow defeat into victory.

Unprecedented in Austria’s post-war history, the court ruling also appeared to be unique within the European Union and is looming large in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the 28-nation bloc.

The decision, announced by Constitutional Court chief judge Gerhart Holzinger, represents a victory for the right-wing Freedom Party, which had challenged the May 22 runoff on claims of widespread irregularities. It comes just a week before independent politician Alexander Van der Bellen was to be sworn in as president and 40 days after he was declared the winner of the vote.

But it also has wider implications.

With Britain’s impending departure from the EU, a chance by Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer to turn his loss into a win would boost not only his party but also far-right and nationalist movements elsewhere in Europe who are all lobbying for a weaker EU or an outright exit from the bloc.

Those parties had hailed Hofer’s strong showing in May as proof of a surge in anti-EU sentiment. Several wasted no time in responding to Friday’s court decision.

Marine LePen of France’s far-right National Front called it “very good news for patriots.”

“After the happy victory of Brexit in Britain ... Austria also has a chance to find the path to freedom and national pride,” she said in a statement. “France’s turn will be next!”

The leader of Italy’s euroskeptic, right-wing Northern League party, Matteo Salvini, also linked the outcome in Austria to Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

“Let’s hope the winds of European freedom and normality arrive here as well,” Salvini said in a Facebook video post.

Austrian referendums are decided by parliament and not by the president and are restricted to only a few issues, with an EU exit not among them. Still, a win by Hofer could increase pressure for a popular vote on that topic.

Interviewed after last week’s exit vote in Britain, Hofer said he could see the need for such a referendum in Austria within a year if the EU “develops into a centralistic union instead of returning to the original basic values.”

Founded by former members of the Nazi party, the Freedom Party has sought over the past few decades to shed its far-right image and appeal to the political middle but still counts the far-right fringe among its supporters.

Hofer was leading after the polls closed in May, but final results after a count of absentee ballots put Van der Bellen ahead by only a little more than 30,000 votes. The final count gave Van der Bellen 50.3 percent of the vote, compared with 49.7 percent for Hofer.

The Freedom Party insisted the law had been contravened in one way or another in most of the 117 electoral districts.

The court ruled broadly with Freedom Party claims that absentee ballots were sorted before electoral commission officials arrived; that some officials stayed away during absentee vote counts but signed documents saying they were present; and that some ballot envelopes were opened without authorization.

Holzinger also spoke of the possibility of individuals voting twice and of potential violations by the Interior Ministry, which released partial results under a publishing embargo to media, pollsters and other institutions.

The judge said the court had no other choice but to call for a rerun, noting that the irregularities potentially affected nearly 78,000 votes — more than twice the margin separating the two candidates.

He acknowledged that opting for a new vote instead of a recount represented a “rigorous measure.” But he said this was necessary “in the interest of the legality of the elections, which represent one of the foundations of the state ... in a democratic republic.”

He emphasized that the irregularities did not point to willful cheating, saying testimony from witnesses led to no indication that of any “manipulation” of the results.

Holzinger also said the investigation suggested that previous Austrian national elections also were beset by similar problems that had remained hidden until now.

Government officials also sought to cast the decision not as a failure but a victory for strong democratic institutions, including one tongue-in-cheek comment.

“Sometimes, a re-vote is not the worst thing in the world. If someone in the UK needs the phone-number of our Supreme Court: +43-1-531220,” tweeted Martin Weiss, Austria’s ambassador to Israel.

But Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache suggested that the count was marred not by “sloppiness but massive legal irregularities.”

“Because of these illegalities, anything could have happened,” he told reporters.

Parliament now has to decide on a re-run date, expected in September or October. Until then, Austria’s presidency will be run jointly by the three parliamentary presidents — one of whom is Hofer — once Heinz Fischer, the current president, steps down next week.

Austria’s flawed election has increased mistrust in the Interior Ministry and other government institutions and that, said political scientist Kathrin Stainer-Haemmerle, “is a sentiment which first and foremost benefits” Hofer.

Hofer and the other co-presidents from the governing center-left coalition said they would restrict themselves to the essentials and avoid high-profile representational functions during their interim terms. Hofer personally promised to avoid any effort to exploit his position.


:lol: :cheers: Well, this should be interesting. Hofer has promised a referendum on the EU membership, although that would only happen if the FPÖ gets the majority in parliament. But who knows? The Austrians are pretty fed up with their current government...
#14697621
Frollein wrote:Hofer has promised a referendum on the EU membership

Do you think the Austrians would leave the EU? Even the British turn out to regret it. Even if there were a referendum, the FPÖ itself would not campaign for it, or would campaign for it halfheartedly after Brexit. In my opinion Brexit, as it is going, doesn't make a case for leaving at all.
#14697624
48% of the people who voted in Britain voted to stay in the EU, so it's natural that there would be a lot of people trending about Regrexit. Doesn't mean the 52% necessarily have changed their minds.
#14697629
Bulaba Jones wrote:48% of the people who voted in Britain voted to stay in the EU, so it's natural that there would be a lot of people trending about Regrexit. Doesn't mean the 52% necessarily have changed their minds.

Some of them have changed their minds, even some of the high profile campaigners for Brexit seem to have changed their minds. However, even if the Brits still believe they did the right thing, Brexit is a synonym for screwing yourself in other parts of the EU and the world.
#14697630
For what it's worth, they couldn't prove any wrongdoings during the elections (which is difficult anyway), but there were a lot of irregularities, such as counting of the votes beginning to early and people who were supposed to be present and supervising the counting not being present.

The excuse of the people who knew about these irregularities was that that's how they had always done it. :knife: :lol: I wouldn't be surprised if that's true.

The Austrian president is a ceremonial position and the FPOE candidate is so moderate, he could easily be a conservative.

Having said all that, great symbolic victory for the FPOE and even more so if they win the presidency this time around.

--------------------------------------------

Beren wrote:Some of them have changed their minds, even some of the high profile campaigners for Brexit seem to have changed their minds. However, even if the Brits still believe they did the right thing, Brexit is a synonym for screwing yourself in other parts of the EU and the world.

Apart from the fact that there is no way of knowing how the people who now claim that they have changed their mind have voted, there may also be some who may now vote leave after seeing that the world hasn't gone under.

The temper tantrums and undemocratic outbursts of the remain side is not only very unsettling but also most unbritish.
#14697633
So temper tantrums and undemocratic outburst are sane, reasonable and thoughtful? Not sure it can get any more Orwellian.

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Apparently, about 78,000 votes are potentially compromised, i.e. could be wrong due to the irregularities, while the difference between Van der Bellen (Greens) and Hofer (FPOE) was 31,000 votes.
#14697634
Beren wrote:Do you think the Austrians would leave the EU? Even the British turn out to regret it. Even if there were a referendum, the FPÖ itself would not campaign for it, or would campaign for it halfheartedly after Brexit. In my opinion Brexit, as it is going, doesn't make a case for leaving at all.


It's far too early to make any predictions about Britain's fate. What some seem to forget is that Britain is still a full EU member. They haven't even invoked article 50 yet. Let them strike some profitable deals with Asia and not sink beneath the waves, and EUxit may become very attractive for any number of members. That's what fuels the vicious reactions in Brussels and elsewhere. 8)

As for Austria, it depends on when that referendum would take place and how many incidents would capture public attention until then. A terrorist attack in Austria or even in neighbouring Germany may tilt the consensus pretty decisively against the EU which is seen as hell-bent on destroying the nation-state and using mass migration as its weapon of choice.
#14697637
There was actually some polling done on this. 5% of "leave" voters in the poll said they would change their mind in another referendum. But, so did 2% of "remain" voters. And the vast majority on both sides said they would vote the same way. (see here)

To say "the British regret leaving" is to commit the same sin that the "remain" camp has committed, ad nauseam, since the beginning: only listening to your own side, and outright ignoring the views of your opponents.
#14697639
I also doubt that Austrians would vote to leave the EU, although by now it's clear that surprises are possible and we should never say never. Chances are low though, because the euro is a serious hurdle. We've seen that even in Britain a lot of people voted for remain because they were afraid of the consequences and the FPOE doesn't advocate for an exit either (right now at least). If Austria was "only" an EU member chances would be much higher. A major motivation for the introduction of the euro was that it is hoped to make integration inevitable and EU membership irreversible.
#14697645
With Britain out, there's a real danger that the Northern member states will have to subsidize the Southerners forever, if they get their way. If nothing else, this will sway many in favour of ditching the Euro, no matter the pain. Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende...
#14697649
I agree that the danger is real in the medium to long term and it's not the only danger either, although I consider non-eurozone EU members to be more likely candidates to either follow Britain or present major challenges to the established EU order for the foreseeable future.

Having said that I'd be happy to be proven wrong by a eurozone member. :)
#14697653
I guess France will be ahead of Austria, IF Le Pen wins. I don't follow French politics too closely, but I'm pretty sure they hate Hollande and Sarkozy, so who else can they vote for? :hmm:
#14697657
As far as I know, according to polls (which obviously need to be viewed with some caution) Le Pen would not be able to get a majority in the first round and lose against several candidates in a run-off vote, although you are right that she would have a chance of beating Hollande. Considering how much Hollande is disliked, he almost certainly won't be among the final two though.

But even if she doesn't win, it's still going to produce shock waves if she gets a good result.
#14697665
Heisenberg wrote:There was actually some polling done on this. 5% of "leave" voters in the poll said they would change their mind in another referendum. But, so did 2% of "remain" voters. And the vast majority on both sides said they would vote the same way. (see here)

To say "the British regret leaving" is to commit the same sin that the "remain" camp has committed, ad nauseam, since the beginning: only listening to your own side, and outright ignoring the views of your opponents.

Agreed. Some of the wavering may also be a function of the appalling state of British politics after the referendum, with Labour actually beating the Tories in terms of irresponsibility.

I don't know if Theresa May is the best person to become Tory leader, but at least she's shown some form of statesmanship which is urgently required at the moment.
#14697694
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Agreed. Some of the wavering may also be a function of the appalling state of British politics after the referendum, with Labour actually beating the Tories in terms of irresponsibility.

I don't know if Theresa May is the best person to become Tory leader, but at least she's shown some form of statesmanship which is urgently required at the moment.

I hope it's Theresa May as well. I'm not a fan of hers, but like you said, she's the only one acting like an adult. Rather than parading around, hurling insults and showboating, she's quietly getting on with her job.

As for Labour: they have completely lost the plot, and I think this may be the end of the road for them - forever. I can't see how they can ever win power again, and I'm not sure they even want to. Only they could find a way to fuck this opportunity up so badly.

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