[Hong Wu]

Taiwan has nuclear power, I usually assume that means they have nuclear weapons, even though some people act as if there's a world of difference in the scaling of the technology, I'm not convinced. So a military takeover of Taiwan seems questionable.

At the same time, Taiwanese are ethnically Han and speak Mandarin Chinese. The mainland is their biggest trading partner. Geographically, it's located off the coast of China. I don't see the country going anywhere but into China, the question is when and how.

As far as Trump goes, he is not motivated by any agenda besides "winning" and this means he will never fully relinquish a bargaining chip like Taiwan for something as transient as trade deals.

[Igor Antunov]

The MSM being hilarious which is probably true does not not preclude you from being hilarious also.

How do you go from Chinese apologist( .ie only yesterday you wrote, "praise be to my Chinese overlords") to praising escalating US-China antagonism?

Because that's not what's happening. Once against the media is the chief antagonist in all of this, creating fantasies to try to influence reality. Trump really has to do something about those networks. Give them the Putin treatment.

Taiwan has nuclear power, I usually assume that means they have nuclear weapons, even though some people act as if there's a world of difference in the scaling of the technology

There is a huge jump from 5-20% enriched to the weapons grade 60% enrichment required for weapons grade material. An entire industry's worth of difference, an industry Taiwan lacks.

[Hong Wu]

Anyone remember when China made Obama leave his plane through the cargo hold? If Hillary was President and she did this, they'd be swooning.

[Albert]

I believe Wu is on the same page here as me. Trump is basically setting up Taiwan as bargaining chip for trade renegotiation. Chinese protested about Trumps proposed trade policies. Heck they even protested EU's measures of putting tariffs on Chinese cheap steel that they were dumping in the market, consequently killing off steel industry in Europe.

The Chinese do not want to let go of the milk bottle that the current trade status quo provides them with. They made this clear by protesting about Trumps plans when he got elected. This move by Trump is basically showing the Chinese that he is serious and will use aggressive means to achieve his goals.

[fuser]

#TrumpTotallyNotAnIdiot

[Hong Wu]

Tsai: "Watch this, I'm going to call Trump and act like it's totally normal."

Trump: "Yuge thanks!"

Tsai: *high fives*

But seriously, I can see Trump taking this call even if he did know, although I can imagine that he didn't.

[One Degree]

But seriously, I can see Trump taking this call even if he did know, although I can imagine that he didn't.

Do you really believe Trump just picks up the phone when someone calls?
These type of comments are simply Trump bashing.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

Hong Wu is Trump bashing? You Trumpists are so concerned with Trump's infallibility you seek to pull everybody into absolute orthodoxy. Trump's own comments make it very clear that he didn't understand that this was not something he was supposed to do. I guess you just want him to make a habit of pissing off world leaders for little to no gain?

He may not be stupid, but he is extremely ignorant on world affairs.

[Hong Wu]

I don't think Trump just accepts every phone call but the people in charge of managing these things for him are not in touch with the state department according to the articles. Having been run by Hillary and the DNC for quite awhile, it is probably not entirely or even primarily Trump's fault that the state department is not working with him on something like this.

So the person managing his phone calls probably confirmed it was the Taiwanese President, sounds important, and put it through. I don't think it's a huge mistake but I can see him not doing it as much as doing it if the state department was handling it for him.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

Sure, and my point is that you admitting that somehow puts you in the realm of Trump bashing. Like what? Have we gotten to the point nowadays where acknowledging the most probably explanation for a person's actions is somehow bashing them? To me it's very clear that your timeline is the most likely one, because Trump didn't give a nuanced reply, he gave one to the effect of not being able to take a phone call is arbitray. Well, the arbitrariness is by design, and it's not a protocol that the Chinese think is nothing, clearly.

Anyway, this is a guy that isn't taking intelligence briefings because he thinks he's learning enough about the world through conversations with world leaders. Seems to me like he's the one that's fomenting any perceived poor relationship with the state department.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... story.html

[Decky]

China really needs to invade Taiwan. This is mostly their fault for allowing the non nation to exist in the first place.

[Hong Wu]

Well, Taiwan has no natural resources to speak of and its assets are all intellectual or tied up in the world economic system. An invasion is not guaranteed to render those to China, which is already its biggest trading partner anyway. There is no advantage I can think of to an invasion, besides bragging rights.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

Apparently One Degree, who supposedly supports the existence of Taiwan, agrees with you (Decky). See, that's the problem with wanting to get rid of "absurdity". World affairs are a practice in absurdity, since nation-states are constantly at odds with international capitalism. It is against the national interests of China to allow Taiwan to exist, but it is in their economic interests because it means closer ties to the United States. However, is that really going to be the rock that the United States is going to die on? I would think not. So to us it makes no difference because it's just accepting a phone call, but what that phone call represents is a threat to Chinese interests, even if we are already working against them materially (but not symbolically).

Trump would do well to understand that international relations are not so simple as trying to win every battle, because that can be a losing effort in the long run. If he has no plans of continuing the military support if Taiwan tries to break cleanly from China then he should go ahead and hang up the phone next time Tsai Ing-wen calls him. For that matter he needs to get away from his campaign strategy of trying to make everybody pick sides, because when people are on your side internationally it's always going to be because they think they can take advantage of you. He needs to understand the incredible influence that the United States has and use it judiciously. Expending all his political capital before he even takes office will make these next few years very rough indeed.

I mean he's already having international controversies and he's not even in office yet.

Well, Taiwan has no natural resources to speak of and its assets are all intellectual or tied up in the world economic system. An invasion is not guaranteed to render those to China, which is already its biggest trading partner anyway. There is no advantage I can think of to an invasion, besides bragging rights.

It's a show of force. They don't even need to permanently occupy to make a point. All they need to do is invade and find someone in the military willing to be favorable to them in exchange for a position of power.

[anarchist23]

Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan confirmed rumors that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was considering building luxury hotels and resorts in Taiwan’s Taoyuan City, according to media reports Wednesday.

A woman working for the Trump Organization came to Taoyuan in September, declaring the company’s investment interest in Taiwan’s Taoyuan Aerotropolis, a large urban planning development project surrounding the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport.

However, given the megaproject plan is still under review, the meeting was merely a form of gesture, the mayor said, according to media reports.

Reports also said the meeting suggested that Eric Trump, the son of the President-elect, will come to Taiwan personally to see about the potential business opportunity by the end of the year.

Trump had in the past pledged to separate his economic interests from presidential responsibilities, were he elected. In a campaign event back in January, the business tycoon said that he would hand over control of his enterprises to his family members.

"If I become president, I couldn't care less about my company. It's peanuts," he said during a campaign event in January. “I have Ivanka, Eric, and Don sitting there. Run the company kids, have a good time.”

However, there is no law requiring the president of the United States to do so, leading many to believe that Trump’s massive business empire would make him more prone to conflict of interest than any other president in American history.

[One Degree]

Trump repeatedly stated he was willing to work with all countries in the world. His statements on Putin alone should have made this phone call no surprise.
Knowing this and assuming he was ignorant when he answered the phone is incompatible and that is why I called it 'Trump bashing'.
He is not playing by the rule book. Time will tell whether it is a stroke of genius or ignorance.
Whichever it turns out to be, throwing the world off balance is the best thing that could have happened for US foreign policy.

[colliric]

It's a show of force. They don't even need to permanently occupy to make a point. All they need to do is invade and find someone in the military willing to be favorable to them in exchange for a position of power.

The Kuomintang and it's supporters would never allow this to happen, and as soon as the mainland forces left, would probably immediately assassinate that individual or cause some other such highly disruptive form of civil unrest just as frequently happens currently in Hong Kong. There would be no peace in Taiwan, the civil war between the Nationalist Party and the Communist Party would basically restart.

If the PRC and the Communist Party ever invaded Taiwan they would need to wipe out the ROC and their old enemy the Kuomintang Party specifically. This would require a lengthy military occupation, and quite a bit of violence. America would be called upon to support Taiwan in the case of the PRC invading, as after all any invasion either way would require the military navel barrier setup by the United States to be broken, and surely they would take the side of, and defend, the group that did not break it.

[stephen50right]

This signals something much deeper than just a chat with the Taiwan leader. It signals that Trump is going to be loyal to our friends. Unlike the outgoing president Barack Obama who too often angered and alienated our friends around the world.

Taiwan is a friend of America. Trump will be a president who will treat friends as they should be treated...with friendship.

[redcarpet]

China lodges complaint over Trump-Taiwan call

PRC now officially complaining.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province and, since 1979, the US has acknowledged Beijing's claim that Taiwan is part of China, with US-China relations governed by a set of protocols known as the "one China" policy.
This means there are no formal diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan

Unofficial response;

Donald Trump’s controversial decision to hold a 10-minute phone call with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, was caused by the billionaire’s lack of foreign policy experience, a mouthpiece for the Chinese government has claimed.

In an editorial published on Sunday, the China Daily, a state-run English-language newspaper, said the affair had “exposed nothing but his and his transition team’s inexperience in dealing with foreign affairs”.

Many had predicted that the call – the first known contact of its kind in almost four decades – would elicit a ferocious response from China’s leaders, who regard Taiwan as a breakaway province that should one day be reunified with the mainland.

[foxdemon]

Trump repeatedly stated he was willing to work with all countries in the world. His statements on Putin alone should have made this phone call no surprise.
Knowing this and assuming he was ignorant when he answered the phone is incompatible and that is why I called it 'Trump bashing'.
He is not playing by the rule book. Time will tell whether it is a stroke of genius or ignorance.
Whichever it turns out to be, throwing the world off balance is the best thing that could have happened for US foreign policy.

Why do you think throwing the world off balance is favourable to US interests? I would have thought maintaining the current world order, given the US is at the centre of it, would be most favourable.

China lodges complaint over Trump-Taiwan call

PRC now officially complaining.



Unofficial response;

They don't know quite how they will handle Trump. Usually China tests a new president. With George Bush it was the recon flight forced landing incident, with Obama it was the harassment of a USN survallience ship. Will they test Trump or will his unpredictability unnerve them?

[One Degree]

Why do you think throwing the world off balance is favourable to US interests? I would have thought maintaining the current world order, given the US is at the centre of it, would be most favourable.

The US foreign policy, since WWII, has been based upon giving countries money to be our friends.
We are universally despised because of it.
Trump has thrown them off balance by saying we are no longer going to do this. We will expect everyone to pay their fair share and we will treat you as friend or enemy based upon our shared interests.
The US will have stated goals and it will be up to others whether they want to be our friends or enemies. We will no longer pay you to do so.
He has also stated his intentions to be non interventionist.
A lot of good will come of this. Europe will be forced to provide for their own defense, and become a stronger ally of the US as a result. They will no longer have a need to bash us for our interference.
The US may actually embrace a 'democratic' Russia instead of placing hurdles in their path in the name of human rights.
In short, throwing everyone off balance allows us to undo many of the mistakes of the past. We are calling a 'reset', 'rewind', 'start over'.