Venezuela's supreme court attacked with grenade from police helicopter - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14820058
Any economy reliant on oil prices would be hurt when they fell. It doesn't matter what type of economy it has. Venezuela has made bad decisions about managing it's economy but it could have also made decisions that would have grown sectors of it's economy to weather oil prices changes without the sort of problems it has now.
#14820076
mikema63 wrote:How about this for a starting point, can we agree that the Chavez/Maduro governments made mistakes in the way they used the oil revenue which led to cutting of social benefits?


We can agree that Venezuala's dependence on oil revenues caused its economy to suffer, but I don't know which benefits you're referring to that have been cut.
#14820106
Under Chavez they funded their welfare benefits for the poor in Venezuela. A move that does of course make sense all things considered, it's a good way to use the money.

When the price of oil fell Maduro cut benefits at some point (I'm not sure when the exact timeline of this falls). This seems somewhat inevitable retrospectively since oil is a limited resource and has to either run out or have it's price fluctuate at some point. I believe that not using a portion of the oil money to develop other sectors of the economy resulted in inevitable cuts and shortages when the problems of utilizing a single resource for national income became an issue.there were other policy choices in response that made it worse as well IMO, there's something like 700% inflation which disproportionately hurts lower income people.

Fundamentally the point I'm ultimately getting at is that at least some fraction of people, specifically the poor who made up maduros base, have been hurt by the crisis.

You can of course argue that america fanned the flames and that their anger is misdirected but they aren't especially odd for being angry.

So, tldr, I think Maduro didn't respond to the crises well, and should have seen something like this coming in some general sense and should have prepared better.

Now they are in crisis in a world filled with liberal capitalist institutions and powers with no where to turn.
#14820109
Which benefits are you talking about?

I understand the shortages are due to distribution issues and that a lot of the companies responsible for that job are privatized. In this thread you can see pictures of food being hoarded and torched by the opposition.

Even if Maduro's base is suffering, they'd still prefer to keep the government over any other party amongst the opposition. According to this source, only 33 percent of Venezuelans want to replace the current government.

America is largely responsible for the crisis and has a very recent history of being involved in the ousting of the previous leader of the country, so there no "misdirected anger", just you as usual ignoring or apologizing for your government's many crimes, including its attempt for regime change in Venezuela once more. Here you can read about US plans of sabotage in Venezuela, which were leaked from Clinton's emails: http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/C ... -0041.html
#14820202
skinster wrote:I don't trust the opposition since they serve US interests, who by the way has paid them at least $49 Million since 2009.
You have incredible faith in the strength of American foreign policy. Apparently all it has to do is deliver a container full of cash somewhere and a huge and intense opposition to the gov't will materialise. Or perhaps you believe that Venezuelans are incredibly mercenary and will willingly harm themselves and their country for a bit of cash.

Let's take a conservative estimate of 1 million protesters. $50M divided by 1M is $50 each. The protests have lasted more than 2 months so let's divide by the round no. of 50 to get $1 per day. Wow, so cheap! We should recruit these guys to fight ISIS.
#14820221
Sounds like a false economy to me. Expel 4000 calories murdering, looting and arson attacks, earn $1, buy 2000 calories of food, wake up tomorrow and do the same. Also lol at legitimate employment paying better than street battles with police, therefore everyone takes to the streets for the high risk low pay 'work'.
#14820223
Which benefits are you talking about?


All of them, and all other government spending aside. Oil accounted for half of their GDP and 95% of their exports. It was also about half of the governments revenue. They tried to prioritize welfare spending over other stuff, cutting the military by 34% for example to try and preserve some of their welfare, but they still made some cuts to welfare.

Ultimately they tried to use monetary inflation to help pay for stuff and that also effectively reduces welfare by driving up the prices of everything.

I understand the shortages are due to distribution issues and that a lot of the companies responsible for that job are privatized. In this thread you can see pictures of food being hoarded and torched by the opposition.


I don't know about torching food but hoarding food during shortages, or even just the fear of shortages, is pretty common behavior everywhere.

The problem with food shortages are a combination of the price controls the government imposed on food and the mismanagement of state owned food production. something like 70% of state owned companies were loosing money from what I've read. Which is fine if the government can cover costs. However when the oil prices fell it could cover all of the costs to operate anymore and production fell. Meanwhile price controls and import restrictions made it impossible to import food profitably leading to a black market.

The government eventually lifted some restrictions but now inflation has made it difficult to import goods.

As for distribution, maduro put the military in charge of oversight of distribution in the country, however the process was filled with corruption. The military intentionally marked up prices to make money and engaged in some of that hoarding you mentioned.

Some have speculated that he did this in part so that the military would be able to feed their families and would not do anything unfortunate like turn on him.

I think corruption is also a problem that touched on the production processes as well. I suspect the lack of economic development in production sectors and lack of profitability may well have had as much to do with corruption skimming off the top as with simple mismanagement.

even if Maduro's base is suffering, they'd still prefer to keep the government over any other party amongst the opposition.


Why? Most people in venezuela, as with anywhere else, are not ideological. I don't see why it should be expected that not even a portion of these people would turn on the government when their needs aren't met.

According to this source, only 33 percent of Venezuelans want to replace the current government.


I had to use google translate, so what I'm reading may not be exactly what it's saying, but from what I can tell the only 33% figure is on a question asking if people thought the priorities of a dialogue between the opposition and the government should be economic problems, the recall, or an amnesty law.

61% thought that economic problems should be the priority and 33% thought the recall should be. Which from my reading doesn't necessarily mean that the 61% oppose the recall. Just that they, rather sensibly, would like to deal with the rather pressing problem of shortages and economic crisis first over the recall vote.

Something like 85% of respondents seem to support some sort of dialogue between the government and opposition. With 14% ish opposed. which tells me that 14% of the population is ideologically committed to one side or another and 85% of people just want things to improve.

Those are just my interpretations of the polls though and like I said I may be misreading the questions by relying on google translate.

Other polls seem to show broad support for a recall and I found this article rather telling.

Caracas, Venezuela – A dozen prominent Chavistas have joined the opposition’s call for a vote to recall President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, adding yet another layer to the complex political and financial crisis ripping the country apart.

The group, which includes former lawmakers and three ministers or secretaries under Hugo Chavez’s presidency, wrote an open letter to the National Electoral Board Monday saying the people of Venezuela should be able to express its will via a referendum.


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/07/19/venezuela-former-chavez-allies-join-opposition-push-to-recall-president-maduro.html

Which would lend some support to my belief that Maduro's actions are a part of the problem if even prominent allies of Chavez think he should go. Personally I think the country could have avoided a lot of grief is someone else had taken up Chavez's mantel.

America is largely responsible for the crisis and has a very recent history of being involved in the ousting of the previous leader of the country, so there no "misdirected anger", just you as usual ignoring or apologizing for your government's many crimes, including its attempt for regime change in Venezuela once more. Here you can read about US plans of sabotage in Venezuela, which were leaked from Clinton's emails: http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/C ... -0041.html


I honestly disagree that the root of this problem is american. Poor choices were made by the government at several key points in this crisis and before it that led them down this road. The united states and China are just waiting around to take advantage of the situation.
#14820245
AFAIK wrote:You have incredible faith in the strength of American foreign policy. Apparently all it has to do is deliver a container full of cash somewhere and a huge and intense opposition to the gov't will materialise. Or perhaps you believe that Venezuelans are incredibly mercenary and will willingly harm themselves and their country for a bit of cash.


You have incredible faith in the American govt not planning coups and committing regime change all over the world, even though it is evident that they have done so and currently are. America is just you know, being altruistic here with their many millions that have been going to opposition groups in Venezuela over the years. :lol:

mikema63 wrote:All of them, and all other government spending aside.


For the third time, which benefits are you talking about? Please provide a source so I can try to figure out what you're talking about.

The opposition have been torching food products they've been hoarding, along with attacking maternity hospitals and setting black people on fire.

As for distribution, maduro put the military in charge of oversight of distribution in the country, however the process was filled with corruption. The military intentionally marked up prices to make money and engaged in some of that hoarding you mentioned.


Do you have a source for this? Preferably not Fox News again.

61% thought that economic problems should be the priority and 33% thought the recall should be. Which from my reading doesn't necessarily mean that the 61% oppose the recall. Just that they, rather sensibly, would like to deal with the rather pressing problem of shortages and economic crisis first over the recall vote.


Yes, the 61% figure is of Venezuelans wanting this crisis to be dealt with, but only 33% want a change of government.
#14820248
skinster wrote:I understand an election is due next year. Why would the opposition, given the support you claim it has, not wait for then to...win?


:lol:

The opposition won a 2/3 majority in the national assembly 1.5 years ago, yet the Chavista-controlled supreme court blocked it completely. Toilet paper is more valuable than the constitution at this point. What matters is where the military stands and how much pressure there will be on the streets.
#14820256
Which opposition? There are a number of parties and they've only come together to oppose the current govt, if that falls they'll be at each other's throats again, fighting each other for power.

Also, the military is with the govt and I believe will remain loyal if recent history is any indicator. 8)
#14820264
skinster wrote: America is just you know, being altruistic here with their many millions that have been going to opposition groups in Venezuela over the years.

So you acknowledge that the opposition is indigenous and home grown and that the US provides material and moral support to a group/ movement that it didn't create?

If so I agree with you. :)
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