[anarchist23]

The ball is now in the American and South Korean court.

North Korea's leader has delayed a decision on firing missiles towards Guam while he watches US actions a little longer, the North's state media said on Tuesday, as South Korea's President said Seoul would seek to prevent war by all means.

In his first public appearance in about two weeks, Kim Jong-un inspected the command of the North's army on Monday, examining a plan to land four missiles near the US Pacific territory of Guam, the official KCNA said in a report.

“He said that if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity, testing the self-restraint of the DPRK, the latter will make an important decision as it already declared,” the report said.

Pyongyang's plans to fire missiles near Guam prompted a surge in tensions in the region last week, with US President Donald Trumpsaying the US military was “locked and loaded” if North Korea acted unwisely.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Tuesday there would be no military action without Seoul's consent and his government would prevent war by all means.

“Military action on the Korean peninsula can only be decided by South Korea and no one else can decide to take military action without the consent of South Korea,” Moon said in a speech to commemorate the anniversary of the nation's liberation from Japanese military rule in 1945.

South Korea pushes for non-military solution to North Korea
“The government, putting everything on the line, will block war by all means,” Moon said.

The Liberation day holiday, a rare one celebrated by both North and South, will be followed next week by joint US-South Korean military drills sure to anger Pyongyang.

China, North Korea's main ally and trading partner, has repeatedly urged Pyongyang to halt its weapons programme and South Korea and the United States to stop military drills to lower tensions.

The state-run Global Times said on Tuesday that Seoul should play a buffer between the United States and North Korea to prevent a head-on confrontation.

“The drill will definitely provoke Pyongyang more, and Pyongyang is expected to make a more radical response,” the paper said in an editorial. “If South Korea really wants no war on the Korean Peninsula, it should try to stop this military exercise.”

The United States and South Korea remain technically still at war with North Korea after the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with a truce, not a peace treaty.

Asian shares rose for a second day on Tuesday and the dollar firmed after Kim's comments further eased tensions and prompted investors to move back into riskier assets.

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Kim Dong-yub, a professor and a military expert at Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul urged caution in assuming North Korea was bluffing with its missile threats.

“There is no stepping back for North Korea. Those who don't know the North very well fall into this trap every time (thinking they are easing threats) but we've seen this before.”

US officials have in recent days played down the risk of an imminent conflict while stressing their preparedness to respond militarily to any attack from North Korea.

Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said on Monday the US military would know the trajectory of a missile fired from North Korea within moments and would “take it out” if it looked like it would hit the US Pacific territory.

“The bottom line is, we will defend the country from an attack; for us (US military) that is war,” Mattis said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe praised a commitment by Trump that the United States would stand with its allies in the region to counter threats from North Korea.

In a telephone call on Tuesday, Abe also agree with Trump that their top priority regarding North Korea was to do what they could to halt missile launches by the regime.

Japan, which would be under the flight path of any missile fired towards Guam, will be seeking further reassurance from Washington in meetings between Japan's defence chief and foreign minister and their US counterparts on Thursday.

“The strategic environment is becoming harsher and we need to discuss how we will respond to that,” a Japanese foreign ministry official said in a briefing in Tokyo. “We will look for the US to reaffirm it defence commitment, including the nuclear deterrent,” he added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 93571.html

[Igor Antunov]

Western rags are giving him the credit, no mention of Trump's firm stance who's brazen realist threats were instrumental in forcing Kim the little emperor to back down. Pathetic.

[Zagadka]

What a brave genius, saying we would nuke them if they nuked us.

[One Degree]

Knowing you can not use reason with unreasonable people may not be genius, but it is superior reasoning to idealist who believe reason is the only response. That just makes you a victim.
You have to demonstrate your own crazy side if you want crazies to listen.

[Stormsmith]

Perhaps someone got through to Kim, and pointed out that America's non nuke weapons have advanced a tad from the days of the Korean War, and that the US could destroy North Korea in ways that grandpa and daddy didn't forsee. And, you know, drones. And NATO.

Bummer if you have to fight on yet another front. CHA-CHING

[MB.]

More likely this was setup between Putin, Kim Jong-Un, Trump and Dennis Rodman to distract from this:

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/t ... ax-returns

[Zagadka]

I can picture China holding apart Kim and Trump (who would get along famously, I think, they are quite similar) saying Guuuuuuuuuys, c'mon......

[skinster]

and that the US could destroy North Korea in ways that grandpa and daddy didn't forsee.

I think they know that the US can destroy NK since that's kind of what happened already.

[MB.]

Before we start with the debate about who can destroy who I'll need at least ONE plausible estimate re: how many nuclear weapons DPRK has.

They, as far as I know, have not crossed the thermonuclear threshold nor are they likely to do so (without a ready supply of deuterium). The real red line would be a combination of factors: miniaturization that makes possible mounting a warhead to artillery shells, OR miniaturization that enables development of a Teller device. Presumably the Americans are freaking out because DPRK is getting closer to these two events.

[Saeko]

HA! The pussies folded!

What a brave genius, saying we would nuke them if they nuked us.

Trump's response is the only correct response.

[Zagadka]

Trump's response is the only correct response.

I agree. He came at it like a caveman, though.

[Saeko]

I agree. He came at it like a caveman, though.

Well... yeah... but who is still expecting any sort of subtlety or decorum from Donald Fucking Trump Son?

[unbalanced zealot]

They, as far as I know, have not crossed the thermonuclear threshold nor are they likely to do so (without a ready supply of deuterium). The real red line would be a combination of factors: miniaturization that makes possible mounting a warhead to artillery shells, OR miniaturization that enables development of a Teller device. Presumably the Americans are freaking out because DPRK is getting closer to these two events.

This is a pretty dire scenario ... it's real existential threat stuff. Don't see South Korea or Japan coming back from hydrogen bomb strikes. Global financial system has never been tested by anything like this either.

[foxdemon]

Some light reading on the subject.


https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/north-korean-h-bomb/


It is a grime situation but every cloud has a silver lining. At least N Korea is giving China, S Korea and Japan a common cause to build a better system of international relations.

[Zagadka]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/worl ... korea.html

"North Korea appeared on Tuesday to pause its threat to launch ballistic missiles toward Guam, saying it would wait to assess “the foolish and stupid conduct” of the United States before carrying the launchings out."

Peas in a pod.

"South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, on Tuesday offered an unusually blunt rebuke to the Trump administration’s discussions of possible military responses to the North, saying no country should take military action on the Korean Peninsula without his government’s approval."

With the current situation, South Korea seems to be potentially siding with the North over a unilateral US action (as would China, likely).

[One Degree]

With the current situation, South Korea seems to be potentially siding with the North over a unilateral US action (as would China, likely).

I thought this was obvious from the start. The question is, are they being realistic? Would they feel the same way without the US presence in the area? They, imo, are supporting a position that will reduce the US deterrent factor based upon having it. People everywhere today seem to confuse idealism with reality.

[foxdemon]

"South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, on Tuesday offered an unusually blunt rebuke to the Trump administration’s discussions of possible military responses to the North, saying no country should take military action on the Korean Peninsula without his government’s approval."

With the current situation, South Korea seems to be potentially siding with the North over a unilateral US action (as would China, likely).

I don't see that as siding with the north. Bare in mind N Korea is trying to go over S Korea's head and deal direct with the US. Part of their strategy is to out manoeuvre the South. America shouldn't let the North get away with that.

Furthermore, I think it is fair enough that nothing should be done without S Korean agreement. It is their country after all.

China is playing this very softly. Partly because they lost influence when the fat boy took over (he offed a lot of pro-Beijing generals) and China might get some influence in N Korea back if they play their cards right. Also, China is currently just short of war against India with the confrontation in Doklam still unresolved. The 19th National Congress is coming up soon and Xi doesn't want anything bad to happen right now. And of course, Trump is not easy to predict. So they are treading cautiously.

Hopefully this will be a learning experience for China and they will come to see the wisdom of a less bellicose foriegn policy. That would greatly diminish tensions through out the Far East.

[Thunderhawk]

I don't see that as siding with the north. Bare in mind N Korea is trying to go over S Korea's head and deal direct with the US. Part of their strategy is to out manoeuvre the South. America shouldn't let the North get away with that.

Perhaps they should. The threat of North Korea bombarding South Korea/Soul should hostilities explode is a big threat and would be a large cost for South Korea. If North Korea believes the USA will strike them against South Korean wishes, perhaps North Korea would not retaliate against the South if America strikes.

[unbalanced zealot]

South Korea is almost a completely different country after the recent leadership transition from Park GH to Moon JI. Domestic policies are vastly different, as too will be relations with the North. Moon comes out of the 'Sunshine Policy' era of the Kim DJ and Roh MH administrations and knows the potential (and weaknesses) of such positions to influence NK.
(I remember being in Korea 10 years ago when Roh MH was meeting Kim JI, NK had actually toned it's threat down a lot at that time and SK and NK were starting to cooperate on Kaesong).

IMO - realistically, with Trump playing bad cop to the fullest extent, Moon JI playing good cop to an extent, seems prudent.

[colliric]

The loading of the missile was obviously meant to send the message of war readiness, North Korea going into high alert mode with a message they can attack Guam at any moment should they be attacked themselves.

But I don't think it was warranted, in fact I think it was stupid and more evidence the country is being run by idiot psychopaths. The threat level against NK isn't higher than usual.

I can't wait to see the day that government ceases to exist.