Catalonia crisis: Spain moves to suspend autonomy - Page 9 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14854907
anarchist23 wrote:Looks like there will be election in Catalonia in the next sis months.
"The Spanish government and the main opposition have agreed to hold an early election in Catalonia - effectively sacking the regional government."


That's just fuel to the fire.
#14854908
The most likely outcome of this is: elections in Cataluña. The independentist parties lose, but hold a lot of power in the parlament.
Pressure is made to approve another 'Estatuto de Cataluña' (laws for self-governing) more of the liking of the independentists.
After a lenghty process, this is done. Issue settled.

After this, the only independist force that will remain in their position is the CUP party, which is a laughingstock.

There won't be much civil strife. The catalans are not like that.
The are shrewd, and like complaining, but they're not prone to violence, for good or for bad.
#14854919
Potemkin wrote:The Catalan nationalists have shown that they are not willing to fight for their independence, and Spain's constitutional laws are such that nothing short of an armed insurrection will achieve that independence. There will therefore be no second Spanish Civil War, and Catalonia will not become independent.


I don't know what kind of parallel universe you inhabit. Violence will achieve nothing for the pro-independence faction, their popular support is already limited as it is. They can only hope to gain more sympathy given Madrid's actions, which at some point down the road might lead to more autonomy or independence.

johndogooder91 wrote:Issue settled.


Sounds like wishful thinking to me. The issue will come up again.
#14854933
I agree a civil war is not likely to start.
Squashing nationalistic feelings however leaves deep wounds.
I foresee a scenario whereby a few dozen disappointed nationalist are enough to start a terrorist campaign for independence, leading to a huge setback for the economy (i.e. tourism) and more escalating interventions from the central government.
This is not over.
#14854959
As an interesting aside, it might be easier to keep a country together outside of a highly integrated supernational structure. The separatists in Scotland and Catalonia seem to be similar in that they want independence from the UK and Spain respectively only to join the EU. They'd gain more autonomy (for the foreseeable future at least) while retaining favourable access to the EU market, political clout as an EU member, and NATO deals with defence so who cares.

The question is whether the centrifugal forces will become stronger as time goes on and how Europe will deal with it.
#14854973
Rugoz wrote:I don't know what kind of parallel universe you inhabit. Violence will achieve nothing for the pro-independence faction, their popular support is already limited as it is. They can only hope to gain more sympathy given Madrid's actions, which at some point down the road might lead to more autonomy or independence.



Sounds like wishful thinking to me. The issue will come up again.


@Potemkin is right. The truth is the rebels don’t have the guts to do what is necessary.

Given this, My advice to pro-independence Catalans is to turn the other way then drop their pants, bend over and get ready to receive what is coming.
#14854978
Ter wrote:I foresee a scenario whereby a few dozen disappointed nationalist are enough to start a terrorist campaign for independence

I think this is unlikely. After the Basque terrorist group ETA, the dissaproval of separatism-based terrorism is widespread.

Many people here may somewhat believe that the independentists are somewhat the losers of this, but actually they have won much leverage for future negotiations with Spain.
It's the best outcome they could possibly get, since a unilateral declaration of independence has never been seriously considered.

Of course, if they start pushing too much, they'll lose both the sympathy of many people and the leverage for negotiating.
#14855007
As an interesting aside, it might be easier to keep a country together outside of a highly integrated supernational structure. The separatists in Scotland and Catalonia seem to be similar in that they want independence from the UK and Spain respectively only to join the EU. They'd gain more autonomy (for the foreseeable future at least) while retaining favourable access to the EU market, political clout as an EU member, and NATO deals with defence so who cares.

The question is whether the centrifugal forces will become stronger as time goes on and how Europe will deal with it.

I agree with this. A unified Europe, by definition, will undermine the sovereignty of the European nation-states, whether it wishes to or not. How could it not undermine it? The European nations were stitched together rather violently over the past thousand years or so, in a process that has only recently been completed, more or less. Germany and Italy, for example, only became unified nation-states in the 1860s. The existence of the EU is unraveling that process, slowly but surely....
#14855010
And what was Europe like prior to the rise of nation states? Europe was divided into provinces, with Royal houses stitching them together, through inheritance or conquest, into rival empires. The church provided a shared culture. The reformation didn’t quite destroy that.

Nationalism bought down that old aristocratic order. Originally it was those rude Scotsmen fighting of the English, the Flems resistance to the French crown and the ferocious Swiss fending off the Holy Roman Empire. That nationalism grew, finishing off most of the aristocracy in the flames of WWI.

The EU seems to be the reincarnation of that pre nationalism Europe. The church might be less important than liberal humanism as the binding of the shared culture. Possibly that is why it has become so cult like. To criticise liberal humanism is blasphemous. To reject it is heresy. It has become a belief, a faith, that is above reproach because it is the ideology that legitimates the ruling class. It is a modern replacement for the old faith but fills the same role.

Meanwhile the peasants want their provincial identity back.

I wonder if we will see the rise of a new aristocracy? You can’t really have peasants and provinces and empires without aristocrats. Who then, are the New aristocracy?
#14855014
The Madrid government is making one mistake after another.
The government is considering taking control of Catalonia's public broadcaster TV3, the removal of Catalonia's leaders and curbs on its parliament.

The Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, says the region will not accept Madrid's plan for direct rule.
He described it as the worst attack on Catalonia's institutions since General Franco's 1939-1975 dictatorship, under which regional autonomy was dissolved.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's plans include the removal of Catalonia's leaders and curbs on its parliament.
An independence referendum went ahead on 1 October, despite being banned by Spain's Constitutional Court.
Mr Puigdemont said the Spanish government was acting against the democratic will of Catalans after refusing all offers of dialogue.
He said he would call for a session of the Catalan parliament to debate a response to Mr Rajoy's plans.
Addressing European citizens in English, he added that the EU's founding values were "at risk" in Catalonia.
Barcelona police said 450,000 people protested in the regional capital earlier on Saturday, with many chanting "freedom" and "independence".
What is the Spanish government planning?
Mr Rajoy said he was triggering Article 155 of the constitution, which allows for direct rule to be imposed in a crisis on any of the country's autonomous regions.
Speaking after an emergency cabinet meeting, Mr Rajoy stopped short of dissolving the region's parliament but put forward plans for elections.
He insisted the measures would not mean Catalan self-government itself was being suspended. Instead, he said, the plan was to remove those people who had "taken self-government outside the law and the constitution".
The measures, which are supported by opposition parties, must now be approved by the Senate in the next few days.
Reports say Spain's interior ministry is preparing to take control of Catalonia's Mossos d'Esquadra police force and remove its commander, Josep Lluís Trapero, who is already facing sedition charges.
The government is also considering taking control of Catalonia's public broadcaster TV3, El País newspaper reports (in Spanish).


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41710873
#14855054
Zionist Nationalist wrote:Catalonians are very much in favor of "refugees" and immigration they dont deserve a country they will just self destruct themselves anyway

They're already doing it as an Autonomous region. Cataluña is already the Salafist capital of Spain, and maybe Europe.
Proportion of religion of peace followers there is 8%, compared to 2% in Spain, and they seem to crave for more.
They have 50% of all Salafist-linked mosques in Spain :hmm:
It's actually lucky that, up to now, only one of their brothers has tried to kill them.

Actually, Qatar and other Islamist powers are very much enthusiastic of this kind of multicultural-loving-independentism the Catalans are upholding.
All cultures are allowed (except Spainish) :excited:
#14856604
As much as I admire Catalonian courage, there is no international support for it. It is a de facto lost movement. It is in nobodies best interest for Catalonia to be independent and it won't be. (Reality of politics is harsh. We live in a democratic society which is not democratic)

Tomorrow news will be(Photos of Prague Spring):

Image
#14856612
So now it gets interesting.
Let me first say that everyone knows this declaration is nonsense and is going nowhere.
Even the separatists also admit this (with a small mouth, but they do).
So let us be clear that this is a long term strategy.
The strategy is obviously to make themselves heard internationally.
And of course they seek sympathisers so now there'll be a fair ammount of playing the victim.

Anyway, Puidgemont is absolutely chaotic, don't know what to believe, either he's a genious or a madman.
Yesterday he was to announce elections to avoid the activation of article 155, finally he didn't. Today, independence.

Now the 155 is on, and the current Catalan goverment will be dissolved in the following days.
It's likely that elections will be held shortly, but I'm not sure that'll change anything.
The fact remains that half the people (48% approx) support independentists and half (52%) don't.
#14856613
Viva Catalonia! Death to the Castilian pig-dogs!

Image

:excited:

I might form an International Brigade to go and fight furiously for Catalan dignity. Anyone fancy it? Since this whole thing is clearly going nowhere, I can damn near guarantee that we won't actually have to do anything. Just sit back and enjoy some sangria in the Barcelona autumn. 8)
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