[foxdemon]

April 1st re-entry. We will know where it is going to hit in a day or so, since it will have hit by then. Probably won’t land on Europe. Very low chance, not zero chance, but very low.


Though I’d add a tracking link.


http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U


If that isn’t enough, try this link:

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/

[jessupjonesjnr87]

I hope it doesn't hit me on my head

[foxdemon]

I hope it doesn't hit me on my head

Why not? You will be famous.

[Political Interest]

I have been worrying about this. I hope it does not land on anyone.

Wasn't there a safer way to do this?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

@Political Interest,

Q. What was the original disposal plan?
Initially, a ‘controlled reentry’ was planned for the spacecraft at the end of its life.

This means that ground controllers would have commanded the engines to fire, slowing the craft by a significant amount so that it would fall toward the surface. Firing the engines would have been done at a specific moment so that it would reenter the atmosphere and substantially burn up over a large, unpopulated region of the South Pacific ocean. Any surviving pieces would fall into the ocean, far from any populated areas. This is precisely what ESA did, for example, for the Agency’s series of five ATV cargo spacecraft between 2008 and 2015.

However, in March 2016 the Tiangong-1 space station ceased functioning but maintained its structural integrity. In so far as can be fully confirmed, ground teams lost control with the craft, and it can no longer be commanded to fire its engines. It is, therefore, expected to make an ‘uncontrolled reentry.’

http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018 ... estions-2/

And as far as worrying goes - don't:

Hence the personal probability of being hit by a piece of debris from the Tiangong-1 is actually 10 million times smaller than the yearly chance of being hit by lightning.

[foxdemon]

Not out of control! The thing is tumbling. They lost radio contact in 2016. How could they possibly have any control over the space station?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-space/chinas-tiangong-1-space-lab-is-not-out-of-control-top-chinese-engineer-idUSKBN1EX09H

China's Tiangong-1 space lab is not out of control: top Chinese engineer

Reuters Staff
3 MIN READ
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s Tiangong-1 space station is not out of control and does not pose a safety threat, a top Chinese spaceflight engineer said on Monday, after reports that the station was falling toward earth.


The Tiangong-1, or “Heavenly Palace 1”, China’s first space lab, was launched into orbit in 2011 to carry out docking and orbit experiments as part of China’s ambitious space program, which aims to place a permanent station in orbit by 2023.

Tiangong-1 was originally planned to be decommissioned in 2013 but China has repeatedly extended the length of its mission. The delay of re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere, which China said would happen in late 2017, had led some experts to suggest the space laboratory may be out of control.

Zhu Congpeng, a top engineer at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, told the state-backed Science and Technology Daily newspaper that the space station was not crashing and did not pose a safety or environmental threat.



“We have been continuously monitoring Tiangong-1 and expect to allow it to fall within the first half of this year,” Zhu told the newspaper.

“It will burn up on entering the atmosphere and the remaining wreckage will fall into a designated area of the sea, without endangering the surface,” he said.


Re-entry was delayed in September 2017 in order to ensure that the wreckage would fall into an area of the South Pacific ocean where debris from Russian and U.S. space stations had previously landed, the paper said.

The California-based Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit group that works the U.S. government, said the Tiangong-1’s re-entry was unlikely to be controlled but was highly unlikely to hit people or damage property, according to a post on its website last updated on Jan 3.

“Although not declared officially, it is suspected that control of Tiangong-1 was lost and will not be regained before re-entry,” it said. There may be hazardous material on board that could survive re-entry, it said.

Advancing China’s space program is a priority for President Xi Jinping, who has called for China to become a global space power with both advanced civilian space flight and capabilities that strengthen national security.

Beijing insists that its space program is for peaceful purposes, but the U.S. Defense Department has said China’s program could be aimed at blocking adversaries from using space-based assets during a crisis.

[Rancid]

Not out of control! The thing is tumbling. They lost radio contact in 2016. How could they possibly have any control over the space station?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-space/chinas-tiangong-1-space-lab-is-not-out-of-control-top-chinese-engineer-idUSKBN1EX09H

The "everything is under control" bullshit is more likely for domestic consumption.

[colliric]

Shit occasionally hits Australia because we're technically a Pacific nation....

Just missing the pacific ocean bullseye results in us getting possibly hit. No big deal, we still have most nothing in our outback here..

[foxdemon]

Here’s a link to an article with the delightful title “What to do if the Chinese space station crashes into your house this weekend”.



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/what-to-do-if-this-chinese-space-station-crashes-into-your-house-this-weekend

In other news, calm space weather has resulted in less drag than anticipated on the plumeting space station. The predicted re-entry and any consequent air-Earth interfacing of the resulting debris has been set back until around midnight, April 1st.

https://www.space.com/40163-chinese-space-station-crash-april-1-or-april-2.html

[Atlantis]

So, about 14 to 20 hours to go. If impact is between the green and yellow trajectories, both Europe and Australia should be in the clear.



click for update

Edit: I just noticed that it was launched 2011 with an operational lifespan of 2 years. Which means it should have been decommissioned in 2014 at the latest. But instead of a controlled reentry, they kept on using it until they lost control in 2016. If it does hit a city, the Chinese will be in for a shitstorm because of criminal neglect.

[foxdemon]

Most likely it will come down in an ocean. Even then, not much should reach the ground.

I expect we will know where it has landed by 10am tomorrow morning (my time, UTC +10). Although it might stay up a bit longer.

As to where it will land, it still can’t be predicted. I’ve hear Africa, South Pacific and even North Korea.

[Rancid]

Will the EU return the remains to China?

[Albert]

It should crash into EU parliament and free Europe.

[Atlantis]

It should crash into EU parliament and free Europe.

We will remember that.

Yankee imperialists will be Yankee imperialists.

[foxdemon]

Will the EU return the remains to China?

My understanding is that in space it is sovereign territory. But once it crashes, it is junk. I can’t see why the EU wouldn’t return if the Chinese wanted it. But why would they want it back? There will only be a few fragments making it to the surface. I suppose it could be put on display or something.

[William Bennett]

@foxdemon maybe that big rock you have in Central Australia attracts the falling debris ? <joking>

I hope it falls on an aggressive, belligerent nation...

How reality breaks the tradition. I was raised with the acceptance that anything from space would, land, crash or invade in the Mojave desert.
Why this return to Earth item should be a problem is puzzling. It's demise was foreseeable so why was't a little explosive included to disperse it's descending mass?

[foxdemon]

Hmm, it landed in the ocean after all.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-02/chinese-space-station-crashes-into-earth/9605260

[foxdemon]

Given just how many people were worried the Chinese space station would land on them, there must be a lot of people disappointed by the fizzer it turned out to be. As a consolation, here is a cheerful video about the effect of a meteor striking the Earth at relativistic velocities.

[youtube]L-s_h5PS7VQ[/youtube]

[Pants-of-dog]

Well, hopefully the next one will hit Europe.