[Victoribus Spolia]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/17/us/f ... tates.html

WASHINGTON — The fertility rate in the United States fell to a record low for a second straight year, federal officials reported Thursday, extending a deep decline that began in 2008 with the Great Recession.

The fertility rate fell to 60.2 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, down 3 percent from 2016, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. It was the largest single-year decline since 2010, when families were still feeling the effects of a weak economy.

Fertility rates are essential measures of a society’s demographic balance. If they are too high, that can strain resources like housing and education. If they are too low, a country can face challenges replacing its work force and supporting its older adults, like in Russia and Japan. In the United States, declines in rates have not led to drops in the population, in part because they have been largely offset by immigration.

The country has been living through one of the longest declines in fertility in decades and demographers are trying to figure out what is driving it. Rates tend to drop during difficult economic times as people put off having babies, and then rise once the economy rebounds. But the rate has not recovered since the Great Recession. A brief uptick in 2014 did not last. The number of births has also declined, and last year was its lowest level since 1987. The fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.........Shannon Hettinger, 32, of Washington, D.C., said she definitely wanted children but for now was focused on her career. “Once I achieve a certain level of success,” she said, “then I’ll start thinking about a family.”

Demography is Destiny

- Auguste Comte

[Pants-of-dog]

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... only-just/

The U.S. is projected to have no racial or ethnic group as its majority within the next several decades, but that day apparently is already here for the nation’s youngest children, according to new Census Bureau population estimates.

The bureau’s estimates for July 1, 2015, released today, say that just over half – 50.2% – of U.S. babies younger than 1 year old were racial or ethnic minorities. In sheer numbers, there were 1,995,102 minority babies compared with 1,982,936 non-Hispanic white infants, according to the census estimates. The new estimates also indicate that this crossover occurred in 2013, so the pattern seems well established.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... n-in-2044/

New population projections released this week by the Census Bureau indicate that the U.S. population will become “majority minority” in 2044. At that time, whites will make up 49.7 percent of the population compared with 25 percent for Hispanics, 12.7 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians and 3.7 for percent multiracial persons. This tipping point will result from two countervailing trends that are projected to continue between now and 2060:

A long term decline for the nation’s white population. The white population is projected to increase modestly until 2025 when it reaches 199,867,000; after that, it will sustain a continued decrease until 2060 when whites will make up only 44 percent of the population. Natural decrease, the excess of deaths over births, for this aging population will be the primary component of this decline.

A growth of new minorities—Asians, Hispanics and multiracial persons. Between 2014 and 2060 both the Asian and Hispanic populations will more than double at growth rates of 129 percent and 115 percent respectively. Multiracial persons will more than triple, growing at nearly 220 percent. These new projections assume a greater gain for Asians than in previous projections but reduced gains for Hispanics. The former reflects rising Asian immigration and the latter a drop-off in Hispanic fertility.

Whatever the scenario, the dynamism of developing nations, their demographics and competitive power are great sources for superiority.

- Ali Babacan

[Rancid]

Makes sense, it's crazy expensive to have kids.

The only issue with this is, it only means China will dictate more and more of our lives as they become an even larger percentage of the global population.

[Rancid]

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-official-minority-babies-are-the-majority-among-the-nations-infants-but-only-just/

The U.S. is projected to have no racial or ethnic group as its majority within the next several decades, but that day apparently is already here for the nation’s youngest children, according to new Census Bureau population estimates.

The bureau’s estimates for July 1, 2015, released today, say that just over half – 50.2% – of U.S. babies younger than 1 year old were racial or ethnic minorities. In sheer numbers, there were 1,995,102 minority babies compared with 1,982,936 non-Hispanic white infants, according to the census estimates. The new estimates also indicate that this crossover occurred in 2013, so the pattern seems well established.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... n-in-2044/

New population projections released this week by the Census Bureau indicate that the U.S. population will become “majority minority” in 2044. At that time, whites will make up 49.7 percent of the population compared with 25 percent for Hispanics, 12.7 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians and 3.7 for percent multiracial persons. This tipping point will result from two countervailing trends that are projected to continue between now and 2060:

A long term decline for the nation’s white population. The white population is projected to increase modestly until 2025 when it reaches 199,867,000; after that, it will sustain a continued decrease until 2060 when whites will make up only 44 percent of the population. Natural decrease, the excess of deaths over births, for this aging population will be the primary component of this decline.

A growth of new minorities—Asians, Hispanics and multiracial persons. Between 2014 and 2060 both the Asian and Hispanic populations will more than double at growth rates of 129 percent and 115 percent respectively. Multiracial persons will more than triple, growing at nearly 220 percent. These new projections assume a greater gain for Asians than in previous projections but reduced gains for Hispanics. The former reflects rising Asian immigration and the latter a drop-off in Hispanic fertility.

Whatever the scenario, the dynamism of developing nations, their demographics and competitive power are great sources for superiority.

- Ali Babacan

"Everybody fucks everybody until we're all brown"
-- Bullworth

[Victoribus Spolia]

Good to see that @Pants-of-dog, decided to make this about race, and that he fundamentally agrees with me.

Its also interesting to see that he praises the end of whites and the rise of non-whites in white countries as he looks onward to the "superiority" of minorities.

POD is like an inverted white supremacist only instead of getting excited about the decline in blacks or Jews, he gets excited about the decline in whites.

[Pants-of-dog]

I am describing facts. I made no comment on whether or not they were good or bad. I quoted articles about US demographics. As you did. I found a pithy quote. As you did. I made no other commentary or argument. As you did.

But don’t worry!
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... c-forecast

Most media coverage of America’s demographic future sees the country approaching a significant tipping point over the course of the next generation, with headlines like the Associated Press’s “Census Bureau estimate: Whites won’t be majority by 2044” typical of the genre. The Census Bureau itself somewhat encouraged this kind of coverage of its 2014 demographic projections, doing things like releasing an infographic titled “Projecting Majority-Minority: Non-Hispanic Whites May No Longer Comprise Over 50 Percent of the US Population by 2044.”

There is, however, another way of looking at it. The very same census report projects that as far out as 2060, 68.5 percent of the population will be white. It’s just that a reasonably large share of the white population will be partially descended from Latin American immigrants. A further 6.2 percent of the population will belong to “two or more races,” with a large share of those likely identifying at least in part as white.

The difference here is between an exclusive and inclusive definition of whiteness. It’s clear that in the face of rising intermarriage rates, a larger share of the population will be at least partially descended from Asia or Latin America, while the partially black share of the population will grow at a more modest rate.

But many of these people will, like me, be of predominantly European ancestry and have skin tone and other facial features that fit comfortably within the conventional boundaries of whiteness. If you use the exclusive version of whiteness — in which anyone who’s part anything is perforce not white — then you get a majority-minority America by 2044. If you use an inclusive view and let anyone who identifies as white be white, then America remains majority white indefinitely.

Did things look dark there for a second?

[Victoribus Spolia]

What?

So is the article saying that "no worries, as long as a majority identifies as white, then the majority will be white." ?

Thats a rather odd tautology to throw in the mix.

[Atlantis]

Imperialists are a dying race

[Pants-of-dog]

@Victoribus Spolia

It is saying that this “end of whites” narrative is a myth. Whites will only be a minority if you define all white skinned people with Asian or Latin American ancestry as non-white.

By this definition, Keanu Reeves and Michelle Bachelet are not white.

All this to say that while these articles describe supposed radical changes in US demographics, the population will stay basically the same in terms of size and ethnicities, except there will be more multi-racial people.

[Sivad]

Imperialists are a dying race

Imperialism isn't dying out, it's going into overdrive. Reproductive genetic technologies are going to lead to the beginnings of a process of speciation over the next few centuries.

They’ll be smarter than average, healthier than average, saner than average – and not by just a little.

Since all these traits are significantly heritable, some highly so, we have to expect that their descendants will be different – different above the neck. They’d likely be, on average, smarter than any existing ethnic group.

That, coupled with overpopulation/environmental degradation and AI robotics spells doom for the global peasantry. If the obsolete peasantry is lucky the cognitive elites will slowly bring down their numbers through an enlightened regime of reproductive planning and maybe even offer uplift to a portion of them with gene therapies. If they're not so lucky they'll just be eradicated with bioweapons. Either way they'd be doing them a favor really because left to their own stupidity they'd destroy themselves in the most agonizing way imaginable through ecocide.

[Sivad]

Demography is Destiny

- Auguste Comte

Up to the 18th century maybe, but a lot has changed since then. These days group intelligence is destiny.

[Godstud]

There is nothing wrong with American fertility becoming low. Richer, more stable countries all have lower fertility and population growth. Who the fuck wants more Americans, anyways?

@Victoribus Spolia, Your initial post indicates it's about race - "Demography is Destiny".

Don't play dumb.

[Victoribus Spolia]

Don't play dumb.

Americans aren't a race last I checked.

If they were, then i'd definitely be a supremacist.

How 'bout them apples.

* silly canuck*

[Godstud]

Your main post mentioned demographics.

Demographics: statistical data relating to the population and particular groups within it.

[Victoribus Spolia]

The OP is about the American birthrate, not about race.

Indeed, demographics are part of my main post: American demographics.

Once again, not playing dumb anymore than you are being dumb.

[Albert]

Feminism together with shitty economy is responsibility for declining birthrate.

[Victoribus Spolia]

Feminism together with shitty economy is responsibility for declining birthrate.

I don't think, nor have I ever thought, that the economy is most significant grounds for birth rates.

Poor countries tend to have significantly higher birthrates than wealthier countries. That seems to gravitate against such a claim.

Feminism? Sure.

But under what conditions was feminism permitted to arise in a male-dominated world?

Why did feminism come about and why was it permitted to do so?

That is the more interesting question in my opinion.

[Albert]

You have to look at mid to yearly 19th century for those answers, as that is the time when feminism began to really rise up and make headway into the mainstream society. I plan at some point to do some heavy research about this myself.

[Godstud]

Feminism?

Up until I left Canada 6 years ago, I had no problem dating and being in relationships with women who would consider themselves feminists. I'd be hard-pressed to find a woman with any intelligence who would not identify as such. That still was no impediment or obstacle to having a relationship. Even feminists like to be treated well.

Now, since things are getting more expensive(education, housing), etc.) you are naturally going to have people who don't want to have children at a young age, and this means less children. That is a societal and economic thing, and nothing to do with feminism.

Even feminists want children. It's a biological imperative.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

It's a biological imperative.

It isn't actually (and you could say that we are currently sort of proving it).

While humans at one stage worked out that sex leads to pregnancy, prior to that our ancestors didn't know how children were conceived, just like animals obviously don't know either. Hence, we have evolved to have a sex drive rather than necessarily wanting children.