annatar1914 wrote:War. War is the rationale.
In the last 100 years, the US has never embarked on a major war without allies. Even if they didn't contribute much in terms of military hardware, the US always wants to have a coalition of as many countries as possible to claim that "see? the international community is with us, there are dozens of countries that support our just war which we are fighting for world peace."
The US didn't bomb Assad to kingdom come in 2013 because the British lower house didn't give Cameron the mandate to bomb Syria. Without the Brits, the Yanks won't do it.
But they can't have another world war without a restored American technological and industrial base, forced to be dependent on the foreign countries that they are likely to be later going to war against.
With it's gigantic military budget, the US already is the leader in military technology. There are other fields such as mechanical engineering and robotics where they can't compete with the Germans or electronics where they can't compete with the Asians; however, history proves that no country, no matter how big, is capable of leading in all fields of technology. The strength of the West is exactly that different economies with different technological excellence trade freely. That's what defeated the Soviet Union in the end.
The idea is that Tariffs will impel American corporations, especially ones tied to the military industrial complex, to build up industry in America, and weaken countries targeted for later military defeat.
US tariffs on imports will weaken domestic producers not strengthen them. There is no example in history of a developed economy that would suggest otherwise. US manufacturers depending on the government to protect them will sell without having to innovate. They will increase their prices and the shareholder will cash in on the profits, while the foreign competitors will innovate to produce better quality at lower costs. Even if the government were to protect US companies indefinitely, they would only be able to do so on the domestic market. On the international market they would lose against foreign competition which has become competitive by innovation and cost cutting. The longer the protectionist regime continues the less competitive US industry will become. Franco Spain is an example of that.
No, let's not make any mistake about it, Donald Trump is stupid as far as the global economy and diplomacy are concerned. What he does know are Mafia-style business practices in real estate and gambling, where macho behavior is used to intimidate.