[Sivad]

Chavez was the one who initiated unsustainable economic policies and concentrated power in the executive. The Maduro regime is the logical consequence of Chavismo. Chavez was lucky to have tons of charisma and to die before the shit hit the fan.

Right, but what the people of Venezuela support is the social democracy, not the authoritarianism, the corruption, and the incompetence of Maduro. Chavismo still has pretty broad support while Maduro's approval rating is below 20%. Norton is trying to claim that the mass demonstrations in support of social democracy are pro-Maduro demonstrations and that's just a blatant lie.

[Victoribus Spolia]

Right, but what the people of Venezuela support is the social democracy, not the authoritarianism, the corruption, and the incompetence of Maduro. Chavismo still has pretty broad support while Maduro's approval rating is below 20%. Norton is trying to claim that the mass demonstrations in support of social democracy are pro-Maduro demonstrations and that's just a blatant lie.

I think the people of Venezuela at this point just want food, jobs, and money that has the power to actually purchase and they want these things without war, gulags, genocide, or a foreign occupation. What sort of regime can give them this is entirely peripheral at this point and I don't think the Venezuleans have the political acumen as a collective to really know what they need and their political history serves as ample evidence of this.

I say let them figure this shit out and if private actors want to send cash to one side or the other, or aid, or sell guns, or whatever, then let them; thats there prerogative, but I wholeheartedly oppose intervention of a direct military kind. That ship sailed long ago when we let them confiscate the lands of American farmers and businessmen who had settled in that country over 50 years ago. At this point, its not our problem unless they directly threaten us; which is very unlikely.

[Sivad]

I think the people of Venezuela at this point just want food, jobs, and money that has the power to actually purchase and they want these things without war, gulags, genocide, or a foreign occupation. What sort of regime can give them this is entirely peripheral at this point and I don't think the Venezuleans have the political acumen as a collective to really know what they need and their political history serves as ample evidence of this.

No, they know what they want. The fact that Guaido has to pose as a socialist is evidence of that. Those people do not want to go back to the old neoliberal order, they want social democracy. They want to ditch the Maduro pig and keep pushing forward with the revolution. I support them in that.

I say let them figure this shit out and if private actors want to send cash to one side or the other, or aid, or sell guns, or whatever, then let them; thats there prerogative, but I wholeheartedly oppose intervention of a direct military kind.

I don't oppose military intervention in principle, if there was a benevolent power that I thought had the best interests of Venezuela at heart I'd support intervetion. The problem is there is no such power in this world, in this world there's only predators.

[The trigger]

I hope he goes soon.
I could carw less about the Venezuelan politics but I do hate to see people there suffer.
Generally socialist eventuality go bad

[Sivad]

In November 2018, I worked with Datanálisis, one of Venezuela’s most respected polling companies, to add several questions about about military intervention and potential negotiations to its nationwide tracking poll.

When asked whether they would support “a foreign military intervention to remove President Maduro from his position,” only 35 percent said yes — hardly the warm welcome predicted by advocates. More than half — 54 percent — would reject such an operation.

Venezuelans are also skeptical of renewed talks with Maduro.

Only 37 percent would “agree with a new dialogue between the government and the opposition.” Forty percent are “indifferent” to renewed talks or did not answer the question.

So what do Venezuelans want?
Given how poorly past engagement with Maduro’s government has gone, their doubts are understandable.

Interest in further talks balloons, however, if the same question is reframed to include a positive result.

When respondents were asked about “a negotiated settlement to remove President Maduro from power,” 63 percent said they would support it. That makes negotiations by far the most popular option for restoring democracy in Venezuela, according to this data.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-01-08/ ... n-military

[JohnRawls]

In November 2018, I worked with Datanálisis, one of Venezuela’s most respected polling companies, to add several questions about about military intervention and potential negotiations to its nationwide tracking poll.

When asked whether they would support “a foreign military intervention to remove President Maduro from his position,” only 35 percent said yes — hardly the warm welcome predicted by advocates. More than half — 54 percent — would reject such an operation.

Venezuelans are also skeptical of renewed talks with Maduro.

Only 37 percent would “agree with a new dialogue between the government and the opposition.” Forty percent are “indifferent” to renewed talks or did not answer the question.

So what do Venezuelans want?
Given how poorly past engagement with Maduro’s government has gone, their doubts are understandable.

Interest in further talks balloons, however, if the same question is reframed to include a positive result.

When respondents were asked about “a negotiated settlement to remove President Maduro from power,” 63 percent said they would support it. That makes negotiations by far the most popular option for restoring democracy in Venezuela, according to this data.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-01-08/ ... n-military

Oh looky, Venezuelans actually hate Maduro... Who would have thought

[Pants-of-dog]

And they hate the idea of foreign intervention even more.

This is not a surprise considering how Latinos have experienced these things in the past. And it is this experience that gives Venezuelans the political acumen to conduct their own affairs as they see fit.

[JohnRawls]

And they hate the idea of foreign intervention even more.

This is not a surprise considering how Latinos have experienced these things in the past. And it is this experience that gives Venezuelans the political acumen to conduct their own affairs as they see fit.

Yes, that is to be expected. I don't know any country that ever supported intervention by outside forces. At least the people inside the country.

It doesn't mean though that intervention will lead to a bad outcome. I just don't think that things can get worse in Venezuela considering how bad it is right now. It is really impressive how 35% of the people actually support direct intervention to oust Maduro. That must be a record.

[Pants-of-dog]

Yes, that is to be expected. I don't know any country that ever supported intervention by outside forces. At least the people inside the country.

Yes, the only ones who think intervention is a good idea are the multinational corporations looking to get their hands on Venezuelan oil.

It doesn't mean though that intervention will lead to a bad outcome. I just don't think that things can get worse in Venezuela considering how bad it is right now.

Those who are aware of Latin America’s history with intervention, specifically US and European intervention, know why intervention is a bad idea that will make things worse.

This is because it has done so every other time, and that is because the foreign governments and foreign companies care only about extracting wealth from Venezuela, and do not care about Venezuelans.

If you think this is bad, please note that mass graves by capitalist dictatorships are worse.

[JohnRawls]

Yes, the only ones who think intervention is a good idea are the multinational corporations looking to get their hands on Venezuelan oil.



Those who are aware of Latin America’s history with intervention, specifically US and European intervention, know why intervention is a bad idea that will make things worse.

This is because it has done so every other time, and that is because the foreign governments and foreign companies care only about extracting wealth from Venezuela, and do not care about Venezuelans.

If you think this is bad, please note that mass graves by capitalist dictatorships are worse.

You are always trying to say capitalism bad socialism good. This is getting tiresome.

I do not care about the ideology as long as the life of the people will be better. You are ignoring that Guiado is not really a neoliberal gun-ho republican/libertarian. He is actually a social democrat. The problem in Venezuela right now is that Maduro/Chavez have literally destroyed the economy, rule of law, competition etc. Even if you want to be a socialist, you still have to have a functional economy and a very well functioning one at that. (Look at Northern Europe as an example)

If the salaries in your country are 5-10 Dollars per month due to inflation or any other reason then you are doomed to fail irrelevant to which ideology you align yourself to. If you distribute 40% of 5-10 Dollars it is nothing. Your people are not gonna live well and will probably starve. On the other hand if you distribute 40% of 4000-5000 Euro salaries then it is a different story. Same thing goes for capitalism, it is irrelevant if you try to give all that 5-10 dollars to the people because that is not going to let you start any business.

There is nothing wrong with socialism in itself unless it destroys the economy. Maduro and Chavez did destroy the economy. Socialism or capitalism under such conditions are meaningless. The more problematic issue is that rule of law is gone, private property is a vague notion, investment is almost non-existent, state ownership of key industries produces mismanagement and corruption etc

[Pants-of-dog]

You are always trying to say capitalism bad socialism good. This is getting tiresome.

Imagine how it feels for Latino socialists who keep trying to have a democratic socialist government and keep getting attacked by capitalists from the global north.

I do not care about the ideology as long as the life of the people will be better.

Then you should support whichever side supports non-intervention.

You are ignoring that Guiado is not really a neoliberal gun-ho republican/libertarian. He is actually a social democrat. The problem in Venezuela right now is that Maduro/Chavez have literally destroyed the economy, rule of law, competition etc. Even if you want to be a socialist, you still have to have a functional economy and a very well functioning one at that. (Look at Northern Europe as an example)

If the salaries in your country are 5-10 Dollars per month due to inflation or any other reason then you are doomed to fail irrelevant to which ideology you align yourself to. If you distribute 40% of 5-10 Dollars it is nothing. Your people are not gonna live well and will probably starve. On the other hand if you distribute 40% of 4000-5000 Euro salaries then it is a different story. Same thing goes for capitalism, it is irrelevant if you try to give all that 5-10 dollars to the people because that is not going to let you start any business.

There is nothing wrong with socialism in itself unless it destroys the economy. Maduro and Chavez did destroy the economy. Socialism or capitalism under such conditions are meaningless. The more problematic issue is that rule of law is gone, private property is a vague notion, investment is almost non-existent, state ownership of key industries produces mismanagement and corruption etc

How many millions did the USA spend on damaging the Venezuelan economy?

[JohnRawls]

Imagine how it feels for Latino socialists who keep trying to have a democratic socialist government and keep getting attacked by capitalists from the global north.



Then you should support whichever side supports non-intervention.



How many millions did the USA spend on damaging the Venezuelan economy?

You are always trying to link everything to US/Capitalist to defend what is happening in Venezuela again and again. US didn't spend a dime actually in the greater scheme of things. They are only gaining a net profit because their own oil production is through the roof in the last 5-10 years which was all done by mostly small-medium sized businesses that have very little to do with global capitalism. In US the forture 500 are global capitalists while the small-medium businesses service USes own needs and demands. Fortune 500 cares about global markets while small and medium sized businesses don't really care.

As for poor Venezuelan democratic socialists? Are you kidding me. Maduro and Chavez are not democratic socialists. Chavez was elected democratically so that can be applied to him but in general they did nothing to preserve the rule of law, fight corruption, increase competitiveness and productiveness of the economy etc (You know the little things that matter).

After the situation went from bad to really bad with the oil prices then the system fully collapsed. Again, this had nothing to do with some evil plan. This mostly happened because production in the US keeps increasing on and on. The oil prices should go down and the only thing that keeps them high right now is the situation in Venezuela and Iran. Venezuelan oil is not competitive compared to American one right now. OPEC plays its part also but they can't do much anymore. The more they try to limit production, the more US increases its production and takes over the markets over time. Europe and US investing more in non-carbon based energy production so the need for oil and gas is stagnating or at least not growing as fast as it should be.

I can go on and on about why the current situation has developed. To put it short Maduro and Chavez are responsible for the corruption, mismanagement, non-existent investment, decline of the democratic process, desolation of the economy and many other things that SHOULD have been prevented. This is their responsibility which they ignored for personal gains in a lot of cases. Maduro doesn't even understand this apparently. He just thinks if he keeps talking about socialism and socialism and socialism then everything will be great. Spoiler alert: it won't. Socialism by itself does not fix socio-economic problems within societies and countries.

[Pants-of-dog]

You are always trying to link everything to US/Capitalist to defend what is happening in Venezuela again and again. US didn't spend a dime actually in the greater scheme of things.

Please provide evidence for the bolded claim.

[JohnRawls]

Please provide evidence for the bolded claim.

How am i going to produce a proof for something when it didn't happen? You can't produce a proof of a negative or something that didn't happen. (You are asking me for a logical fallacy) In this case i can only perhaps provide proof that they gained a lot from this. (Uncertainty in Venezuela and Iran keeps the oil prices high and the US as the world largest producer of oil benefits a lot from this)

And if you are claiming that it did happen that US spent a lot more than they gained then you should be proving this.

[Pants-of-dog]

How am i going to produce a proof for something when it didn't happen? You can't produce a proof of a negative or something that didn't happen. (You are asking me for a logical fallacy)

Yes, you can prove a negative.

I can, for example, prove there are no famous Republicans in my hat.

Now, please provide evidence for your claim.

[JohnRawls]

Yes, you can prove a negative.

I can, for example, prove there are no famous Republicans in my hat.

Now, please provide evidence for your claim.

Here you go: https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/too ... -Existence

You are providing an extreme case. In general proving non-existence is complicated and is mostly considered a logical fallacy.

[Pants-of-dog]

https://infidels.org/library/modern/ric ... heory.html

If you want, you can then prove the positive claim that the economic problems are due solely to the Venezuelan government, but then you would have to ignore facts like sanctions.

[JohnRawls]

https://infidels.org/library/modern/richard_carrier/theory.html

If you want, you can then prove the positive claim that the economic problems are due solely to the Venezuelan government, but then you would have to ignore facts like sanctions.

You are changing the substance. The claim was that the US didn't spend a dime in the greater scheme of things. I provided weak proof of sorts that the US is benefiting greatly by the situation in Venezuela irrelevant of the sanctions. The production of Venezuelan oil was dropping before the oil sanctions even took place so the economic strife in Venezuela is something that American oil producers are happy with and the net benefit of this is very significant. (US is the largest oil producer)

So from a capitalist standpoint there is no real reason to intervene if the situation was only about oil. There are more things to be considered: immigration that the crysis produces, destabilises the region, creates a place for US opponents to operate etc. Honestly the US probably wouldn't care about Venezuela if it walled itself and preventing emigration outside of the country and also didn't host the Russians or the Chinese. (US would be cool with North Korea like regime in Venezuela minus the nuclear and ballistic programs)

That is why i so dislike the bad capitalist/good socialist argument in this case. I could buy it in case of Cuba for example but not in case of Venezuela or North Korea. Venezuela has no resources that american fortune 500 can exploit (No human resources, oil is too pricy, agricultural land is worse compared to america etc) Maduro is pretty competent at making Venezuela non-competitive compared to the US in the first place.

[Pants-of-dog]

So no evidence.

If you have no evidence that the economic woes are solely due to the Venezuelan government, then I am going to ignore the claim as unsupported.

[JohnRawls]

So no evidence.

If you have no evidence that the economic woes are solely due to the Venezuelan government, then I am going to ignore the claim as unsupported.

Why are you asking proof for things that are self evident? Who else is responsible for the economic situation in Venezuela if not the government?

But okay, i ll explain it once again like i do it with skinsterina.

Lets us determine the sanctions first:

2005 Bush canceled all of the sanctions or at least anything that was of any importance.
2015 Obama re-implemented personal sanctions that were targeted to individuals.
2018 Trump introduced more personal sanctions against individuals
2019 January Trump introduced real sanctions against the economy and PDSVA.

Reality of situation would show that the sanctions are responsible for the economic crysis if the crysis happened after 2018/2019. Reality is this:

Inflation every year in 2 digits which is significantly higher than world average often reaching 20% starting from Chavez:



Oil production fell starting from Chavez and started heavy decline with Maduro. Oil production declined from 3 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels before the oil sanctions took place in January 2019. Current sanctions dropped additional 350-400 thousand barrels so current Venezuelan oil production is 700k barrels.



Food prices increasing in line with inflation and food diets declined as expected before the sanctions took place:



Unsustainable budget deficit for a long time:



Some other indicators. For example transparency international:

Corruption index in 2018: 168th out of 180
Corruption index in 2000 71st out of 95
Corruption index in 2005 130 out of 160

So it is steadily going worse and worse even considering it was not that good at start.

GDP Growth is hard to determine because Venezuela stopped producing official data for obvious reason but some calculations show this:



I can go on and on but you start to notice that most of the issues started before the serious sanctions took effect.