End of maduro - hopefully. - Page 51 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15027364
JohnRawls wrote:Guiado has support of around 50 governments. Majority of which are the most prosperous nations in the world. On the other hand what support Maduro has? Russia, China and Turkey are the only relevant ones. Most of them are far from Venezuela and relatively a lot less prosperous compared to the ones that support Guiado. Not to mention a lot more countries actually support Guiado nowadays instead of Maduro from the ones that bothered to take a side in this. As time goes on, more and more cases of torture and executions are coming to light also.

There has been a breakthrough recently though. It appears that Maduro might be willing to do a free elections but it is hard to say because:
1) The Chavistas are fractured right now between the defeatnicks and hard-liners.
2) The opposition is also fractured right now between the soft-liners(let us sort it out already) and the hard-liners(Chavistas have to pay for the killing and torture)

So the problem in the negotiations is that when talking to the Chavistas it is hard to say who holds the cards and who the opposition is negotiating to right now. Defeatnicks are okay with any concessions so long as they can keep their head and perhaps their wealth while hardliners thinks that the opposition can't be trusted and will come for their heads eventually.(We killed them so they will kill us) On the other hand the opposition also has problems where they can't clearly formulate what they want. They understand that they have the upper hand BUT to what point should they drive this upper hand. For there to be a peaceful solutions, the opposition should offer no questions asked amnesty and reintegrate the Chavistas in to the political system. The problem is that blood has been spilled and that in itself is a very massive problem. If there was no spilled blood then the solution would be much easier to reach. I understand that it is Maduros fault to a great degree but nothing can be done now.

On the other hand, if the opposition pushes to hard or the hardliners on both sides aggravate the situation further then there might not be a peaceful solution.



I must apologize that events in Hong Kong are also very heated that I have lost track on what's happening in Venezuela.

As far as I can see, in Hong Kong even the police shooting an eye out of a girl protester (even though it might be accidental) has turned many into hardliners. If there are people tortured or even killed in Venezuela then I fail to see why we have to tolerate the wrong-doers. They should be sent to the Hague to stand trial on crimes against humanity.

Russia and Turkey have their problems as well. All in all, with the possible exception of Turkey (and / or Iran), almost every country supporting Maduro is either incompetent or outright evil. If there's justice, I am quite certain that some nations just deserve to be conquered.
#15027371
Patrickov wrote:I must apologize that events in Hong Kong are also very heated that I have lost track on what's happening in Venezuela.

As far as I can see, in Hong Kong even the police shooting an eye out of a girl protester (even though it might be accidental) has turned many into hardliners. If there are people tortured or even killed in Venezuela then I fail to see why we have to tolerate the wrong-doers. They should be sent to the Hague to stand trial on crimes against humanity.

Russia and Turkey have their problems as well. All in all, with the possible exception of Turkey (and / or Iran), almost every country supporting Maduro is either incompetent or outright evil. If there's justice, I am quite certain who should be annihilated.


In a perfect world perhaps but people will defend themselves if their life or lively hood is in danger. (Even if they deserve it) Being sent to the Hague for the more important people and local trials for the smaller people is exactly that. This just makes compromise to fix the situation very hard. As i said, spilled blood complicates the situation severely. It makes the situation in to eye for an eye direction which furthers the conflict between the sides. Both understand this but think that there is no alternatives while in reality is that there is an alternative. (Peaceful solution)

Violence is a solution in itself when one side achieves complete victory. It is not a solution in itself if nobody achieves complete victory. Sort of something like this. In context of Venezuela there is no chance that either the opposition or Chavistas achieve complete victory by violent means by themselves. The opposition has a chance if it receives foreign support but Chavistas are pretty fucked in this regard. By complete victory i obviously mean full eradication of the other side physically and full suppression of their supporters.

China is pretty much in the same situation in Hong Kong. China has more resources and power but ultimately achieving complete victory through violence is not possible for China because of foreign support for HK. Sure they can roll in the tanks and the military but that would damage their relations and market access to most of the countries in the region and the world that matter. HK will probably establish some kind of government in exile and then what? People will still be there and remember what happened. The only real way to do it for Hong Kong is to put half of the population in to Gulags or something which is bat shit insane.

I doubt Europe or the US will close its eyes all of the sudden if a civil war starts in Venezuela. I am 100% sure that Europe and US will act if HK people will start to be sent to Gulags or even if just the tanks roll in.
#15027373
JohnRawls wrote:I am 100% sure that Europe and US will act if HK people will start to be sent to Gulags or even if just the tanks roll in.


Well even for that the West will just make sanctions and we will starve to death one way or another.

I actually thought about the Commies sending us to Gulags or even gas chambers, but logistically this is different from the case of Holocaust or even the Uyghurs, because we are not really differentiated by race to the Mainlanders, and there are so many foreigners down here that such an action will almost certainly result in foreign casualties, which IMHO would mean WW3.
#15027375
Patrickov wrote:Well even for that the West will just make sanctions and we will starve to death one way or another.

I actually thought about the Commies sending us to Gulags or even gas chambers, but logistically this is different from the case of Holocaust or even the Uyghurs, because we are not really differentiated by race to the Mainlanders, and there are so many foreigners down here that such an action will almost certainly result in foreign casualties, which IMHO would mean WW3.


I don't think so. States who have an interest in China wouldn't care.

Join the "no one cares about you" club. We've got coffee and donuts.
#15027379
Patrickov wrote:Well even for that the West will just make sanctions and we will starve to death one way or another.

I actually thought about the Commies sending us to Gulags or even gas chambers, but logistically this is different from the case of Holocaust or even the Uyghurs, because we are not really differentiated by race to the Mainlanders, and there are so many foreigners down here that such an action will almost certainly result in foreign casualties, which IMHO would mean WW3.


Sure, US and EU will impose sanctions but this also means that independence/autonomy of HK will be added to a list of those sanctions. Those sanctions are a big deal though. As much as Russia likes to pretend that sanctions don't hurt, they really fucking do. China is 10 times more integrated in to the global markets and economy so it will hurt 10 times more.

As much as China doesn't want to loose face, i think that starting a real cold war between itself and the West isnt on its to do list right now. Nor does it have the network similar to the Soviet Union to even try. China vs most of the developed world is not a confrontation China can win. This is a prooven concept in the 20th century.

Germany surrendered in WW1 because it was pointless to continue the fight vs the whole world alone. Germany in WW2 didn't want to surrender the same way it did as in WW1 but ultimately we just finished it of. The Cold War with the Soviet Union ultimately ended again when most of the Soviet Allies defected and the Soviets surrendered/lost the will to fight. China is in a worse situation in this regard, it has very few regional allies. It is not on the level as the Soviet Union at its prime and the West is much bigger now compared to those times.
Last edited by JohnRawls on 18 Aug 2019 20:28, edited 1 time in total.
#15027381
Palmyrene wrote:I don't think so. States who have an interest in China wouldn't care.

Join the "no one cares about you" club. We've got coffee and donuts.


No. Instead I will see this club as an enemy which requires annihilation.
#15027384
JohnRawls wrote:Sure, US and EU will impose sanctions but this also means that independence/autonomy of HK will be added to a list of those sanctions. Those sanctions are a big deal though. As much as Russia likes to pretend that sanctions don't hurt, they really fucking do. China is 10 times more integrated in to the global markets and economy so it will hurt 10 times more.

As much as China doesn't want to loose face, i think that starting a real cold war between itself and the West is on its to do list right now. Nor does it have the network similar to the Soviet Union to even try. China vs most of the developed world is not a confrontation China can win. This is a proven concept in the 20th century.

Germany surrendered in WW1 because it was pointless to continue the fight vs the whole world alone. Germany in WW2 didn't want to surrender the same way it did as in WW1 but ultimately we just finished it of. The Cold War with the Soviet Union ultimately ended again when most of the Soviet Allies defected and the Soviets surrendered/lost the will to fight. China is in a worse situation in this regard, it has very few regional allies. It is not on the level as the Soviet Union at its prime and the West is much bigger now compared to those times.


That's exactly why I believe China must bow to the righteous West, or face annihilation in a future World War / Cold War. As much as those anti-West people want to claim, I actually think Western (or more accurately, English and American) domination is a good thing, and anyone who suffered under it are going to suffer no matter who's in charge -- including themselves.
#15027385
Palmyrene wrote:Pardon? I'm sorry but there's not much you can do to Syria to annihilate it any more than it already is.


Actually I mean annihilation to people who constantly dissuade people to make righteous resistance.
#15027388
Patrickov wrote:That's exactly why I believe China must bow to the righteous West, or face annihilation in a future World War / Cold War. As much as those anti-West people want to claim, I actually think Western (or more accurately, English and American) domination is a good thing, and anyone who suffered under it are going to suffer no matter who's in charge -- including themselves.


I wouldn't call the West righteous because that is too strong of a word. Western system is simply more beneficial, fair and peaceful between its members. Sure there are disputes but over a long period of time it shows. This allows us to stack the deck of sorts.

In a very simple way when Cold War was starting then lets say there were 2 "Team leaders": The USSR and the US. They had to choose its allies and it went like this: Okay the USSR takes Poland, Okay the US takes Britain, the USSR takes Hungary, the US takes France and on and on. This is not a fair competition.

China will be in the same situation but a lot worse: China takes North Korea, US takes Japan, China takes Pakistan, US takes the European Union, etc
#15028273
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro confirms months of secret US talks

Nicolás Maduro has confirmed top Venezuelan officials have been talking to members of Donald Trump’s White House, after reports his second-in-command had been negotiating his downfall with the United States.

“I confirm that for months there have been contacts between senior officials from Donald Trump’s government and from the Bolivarian government over which I preside – with my express and direct permission,” Venezuela’s authoritarian leader said in a televised address on Tuesday night.

“Various contacts through various channels,” Maduro added.

Maduro’s remarks came after two reports in the US media claimed Diosdado Cabello, one of Venezuela’s most powerful and feared men, had been engaged in “secret communications” with Trump officials.

On Sunday Axios claimed that in recent months Cabello, the 56-year-old head of Venezuela’s pro-Maduro constituent assembly, had been communicating with Trump’s top Latin America adviser, Mauricio Claver-Carone. Some Trump officials reportedly considered that a positive sign suggesting Maduro’s circle was “gradually cracking”.

The Associated Press claimed Cabello had met someone “in close contact with the Trump administration” in Caracas last month and that a second meeting was envisioned. The US reportedly hoped engaging with Cabello would intensify an internal “knife fight” supposedly raging at the pinnacle of Maduro’s administration.

Observers of Venezuelan politics greeted those reports – apparently designed to destablise Maduro’s crisis-stricken administration by stoking paranoia within his inner-circle - with scepticism.

Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at the Chatham House thinktank, said: “I think what the US is trying to do is some sort of psy ops thing, trying to rattle people within Maduro’s administration.”

But on Tuesday Maduro confirmed contact with the US, which he painted as proof that he had been seeking ways “for president Donald Trump to truly listen to Venezuela and the truth of the 21st century Bolivarian revolution”.

Earlier in the day Trump told reporters: “We’re talking to various representatives of Venezuela. I don’t want to say who, but we are talking at a very high level.”

Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, described reports there had been talks between Cabello and Trump officials as “a very positive sign”.

“It suggests an understanding at the top level of [Maduro’s] government that this is unsustainable,” he said of Venezuela’s ongoing economic, political and humanitarian meltdown.

“I think what these people are looking for is some kind of guarantee [from the US] that they are not going to end up in a jail cell in Miami,” Ramsey added.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... t-us-talks
#15028275
Prosthetic Conscience wrote:“I think what these people are looking for is some kind of guarantee [from the US] that they are not going to end up in a jail cell in Miami,” Ramsey added.


Seriously, the US has no place to make such a guaruntee. The US's job is to take those people to stand trial in front of their fellow Venezuelans, or the Hague. I think nobody, not even (or especially) Trump, would really want to take responsibility of these people's custody.
#15028987
JohnRawls wrote:Just going to leave this here, you are defending incompetence that is destroying its own people: (GDP statistics growth in percentages)

Image

Thanks for the chart! But your "conclusion" that accompanies it is satire, I hope.

Imagine showing a graph of the average weight of Jewish prisoners at Auschwitz, and then claiming that it proves how incompetent the Jewish leadership was at the time. You would be explaining to us that the Jews would be much better off simply accepting Nazi rule because then they would start gaining weight again. Just like giving Venezuela to Exxon will make Venezuela "great again," right?

The USA has been starving Venezuela since before your chart begins. Stop suggesting that they "jump out of the pot and into the fire" of imperial abuse. Argentina has been "capitalist-pro-western" for a decade now, and it's more broke and desperate than it ever was. Stealing oil and bankrupting the country to Western bank predators... is the only "solution" that the USA has.
#15029021
QatzelOk wrote:Thanks for the chart! But your "conclusion" that accompanies it is satire, I hope.

Imagine showing a graph of the average weight of Jewish prisoners at Auschwitz, and then claiming that it proves how incompetent the Jewish leadership was at the time. You would be explaining to us that the Jews would be much better off simply accepting Nazi rule because then they would start gaining weight again. Just like giving Venezuela to Exxon will make Venezuela "great again," right?

The USA has been starving Venezuela since before your chart begins. Stop suggesting that they "jump out of the pot and into the fire" of imperial abuse. Argentina has been "capitalist-pro-western" for a decade now, and it's more broke and desperate than it ever was. Stealing oil and bankrupting the country to Western bank predators... is the only "solution" that the USA has.


There was no sanctions at all on Venezuela for a long time. Minor sanctions were introduced under late Obama and only Trump introduced economic sanctions. Your story doesn't add up.

But i get it. You are trying to imply that the whole capitalist mafia is against Venezuela... Well, its your opinion.
#15029029
Why do you assume that the only economic warfare against Venezuela was the public sanctions?

In almost every other case where the US used economic warfare against a leftist Latin American nation, most of it was covert.
#15029030
Pants-of-dog wrote:Why do you assume that the only economic warfare against Venezuela was the public sanctions?

In almost every other case where the US used economic warfare against a leftist Latin American nation, most of it was covert.


What mass scale covert actions did the US undertake? Sabotage food production after Maduro nationalised food production? Or any other industry? :eh:
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