End of maduro - hopefully. - Page 48 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15018193
Pants-of-dog wrote:I think the US failed.

If you think the US had nothing to do with this, then you are not ware of how this is merely a continuation of a long history of US involvement in Latin America in support of right wing markets.

And it probably failed because of the same reason as previous attempts failed: they underestimated popular support for the leftist government, like during the famous Bay of Pigs invasion.


I didn't say the US didn't try, i said that US leadership collectively agreed not to pursue the issue further besides some minor tokens. If US starts an invasion of Venezuela then Venezuela will fall within a week if US wished so. There is just not much interest in Venezuela from the side of US because ,well, there is nothing interesting in Venezuela and it seems that it will eventually collapse by itself or fade in to full obscurity over time.

Bay of Pigs is a totally separate issue because that is an example of a situation where US really tried hard but failed due to Soviet Union being around. Even after the Cuban missile crysis, the US had to follow the agreement between USSR and US. There is no USSR to protect Venezuela. Venezuela doesn't even have any regional allies right now due to economic situation in the country and its fallout on its neighbours.
#15018199
JohnRawls wrote:I didn't say the US didn't try, i said that US leadership collectively agreed not to pursue the issue further besides some minor tokens. If US starts an invasion of Venezuela then Venezuela will fall within a week if US wished so. There is just not much interest in Venezuela from the side of US because ,well, there is nothing interesting in Venezuela and it seems that it will eventually collapse by itself or fade in to full obscurity over time.


The US is not currently able to start a military offensive against Venezuela. It is too busy putting out fires in the Middle East and getting ready to invade Iran, a formidable opponent.

Bay of Pigs is a totally separate issue because that is an example of a situation where US really tried hard but failed due to Soviet Union being around. Even after the Cuban missile crysis, the US had to follow the agreement between USSR and US. There is no USSR to protect Venezuela. Venezuela doesn't even have any regional allies right now due to economic situation in the country and its fallout on its neighbours.


And yet the USA is unable to force Cuba to do anything, despite the lack of the USSR.

Also, the Bay of Pigs failure happened in April of 1961. At that point, the only support sent by the Soviets was fuel, paid for in Cuban sugar. Khrushchev only started supporting Cuba in a military fashion after the failed invasion.
#15018203
Pants-of-dog wrote:The US is not currently able to start a military offensive against Venezuela. It is too busy putting out fires in the Middle East and getting ready to invade Iran, a formidable opponent.



And yet the USA is unable to force Cuba to do anything, despite the lack of the USSR.

Also, the Bay of Pigs failure happened in April of 1961. At that point, the only support sent by the Soviets was fuel, paid for in Cuban sugar. Khrushchev only started supporting Cuba in a military fashion after the failed invasion.


The US is still bound by the agreement it signed after the Cuban missiles crysis. This is a can of worms that NOBODY wants to revisit again.

As for the US not being able to start military operations in Venezuela..... It would take the US a weak or two of airstrikes to remove Maduro from office. A lot of people are displeased as it is, if US provides arms and starts airstrikes then Maduro won't last for long. There is not even a need to send its own forces because Maduro is hated already by at least 25% of the population. Besides some die hard communists who might remain, most of his generals and government officials still want to live and still want to use that stolen money so they are not going to die for him.
#15018205
Yes, the USA is blameless and strong and loved, while the villainous Venezuelan government is venal and evil and weak.

And yet these cartoon Marxists seem to be able to stop the US from imposing its benevolent will.
#15018216
Pants-of-dog wrote:Yes, the USA is blameless and strong and loved, while the villainous Venezuelan government is venal and evil and weak.

And yet these cartoon Marxists seem to be able to stop the US from imposing its benevolent will.


Don't twist my words and feint being the victim. US is not blameless nor is it benevolent. Same thing goes for the Marxists. The US system just functions better than Marxist systems and that is why US is ahead right now. The same reason a lot more people actually want to live in Western societies instead of somewhere else irrelevant of loving or hating the US. Simply put, an average joe or jane who don't care about politics are better of in the US/Europe than in Venezuela. People see that, people want to emulate the success.

There are half-decent examples of functioning communism/socialism like Cuba. Its not great but not that bad either compared to everyone else in the region. It is still miles behind US or Europe though.

There are examples of functioning fusions of liberalism and socialism like Nordic social democracy. It is not a bad system but it does require people to both accept capitalism and liberalism to a degree. And it is competitive with less deluded models like in France, Germany, UK or the US.
#15018217
...and my point was the follwing:

If we assume that being able to effectively thwart the plans of the US gives a government legitimacy, as @Patrickov suggest, then the Venezuelan government is legitimate.
#15018222
Pants-of-dog wrote:...and my point was the follwing:

If we assume that being able to effectively thwart the plans of the US gives a government legitimacy, as @Patrickov suggest, then the Venezuelan government is legitimate.


I am not sure about Patrickovs opinion because i don't want to put words in his mouth for him but lets presume this is the case as you are putting it. It does definitely give Venezuela some legitimacy on the world stage that it can defend itself against minor US effort. There is a reasonable argument here.

Then again, this is just a little token/part of the said legitimacy and there is more to it. I do not think that this somehow effects the support or hate from the people of Venezuela itself. (Besides perhaps the Venezuelan opposition not being fully gung ho and starting a full uprising/rebellion with weapons etc which is a good thing for them not being able to do that)

So in a sense of global politics. Sure, it provides Venezuelan government legitimacy that it is not a puppet and US can't just tell Maduro to go away and he will go away. On the other hand legitimacy is not exactly based on that only. There is a lot, lot more to it.
#15019807
SSDR wrote:The government of Venezuela lacks general intelligence, common sense, and efficient industrial coordination.

They could really learn a thing or two from Colombia, El Salvador and Guatemala? You know, places where Western mercenaries kill labor leaders, strip mine and pollute rivers, destroy ecosystems, and kill First Nations land protectors?

That's what Venezuela had BEFORE it elected Hugo Chavez. So really, most of Latin America is just pre-communist, and pre-Chavez.

Once the USA dries up and dies, Venezuela and its allies in South America will finally be able to rebuild their countries in the Cuban model of local inputs, and community cooperation.

Perhaps the USA and Canada will eventually wake up and do the same. Once they've lost everything trying to choke other countries to death, that is.
#15020109
JohnRawls wrote:As for the US not being able to start military operations in Venezuela..... It would take the US a weak or two of airstrikes to remove Maduro from office. A lot of people are displeased as it is, if US provides arms and starts airstrikes then Maduro won't last for long. There is not even a need to send its own forces because Maduro is hated already by at least 25% of the population.


The U.S. cannot attack Venezeula militarily, even states in the region that support the very much active U.S. war on Venezuela withdrew their support after Russia and China stepped in. This attempt at regime change has failed for now, dude on the losing/loser side. :D

#15020114
JohnRawls wrote:It would take the US a weak or two of airstrikes to remove Maduro from office

Yes, and then its military and oil company mercenaries could maintain a constant civil war while they remove the oil without paying much of anything to locals.

The Libyan model, and the Iraqi model.

Of course, this will trigger millions and millions of refugees, but when has this ever stopped a dying empire?
#15021126
skinster wrote:It remains absolutely disgusting the likes of JohnRawls promote such a horrifying, genocidal war on millions of poor people. People who push for war are scum, utter scum. :)

People who push for war are usually arms dealers, or are being bribed by arms dealers.

It's not an irrational decision for their own monetary enrichment.

It's just capitalism, exploiting the life out of everything.
#15021164
QatzelOk wrote:People who push for war are usually arms dealers, or are being bribed by arms dealers.

It's not an irrational decision for their own monetary enrichment.

It's just capitalism, exploiting the life out of everything.


Considering too many governments and states using this as an excuse to stay in power and bully the common people (often meaning the death of the latter), I am not sure who is the bigger bad.

Besides it's not like arms dealer do not do business with those tyrants anyway. I rather prefer them doing business with someone who's relatively fairer to me, and unfortunately non-Western states and governments are unlikely the ones who's winning in this aspect.
#15021175
Venezuela Oil Exports Rebound In June As China Takes Most Crude
Venezuela exported 1.1 million bpd of crude oil and refined oil products in June, up by 26 percent from May, thanks to higher shipments under oil-for-loan deals with China, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing Refinitiv Eikon data and company records of Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA.

According to the oil company’s documents, China accounted for 59 percent of Venezuela’s oil shipments last month, with India and Singapore a distant second and third, with 18 percent and 10 percent of Venezuela’s oil exports, respectively.

In May, Venezuela’s oil exports had slumped by 17 percent on the month to 874,500 bpd as the country had shut down almost all of its upgraders.

Venezuela had to seriously reshuffle its crude oil and oil products export destinations earlier this year after the U.S. essentially prohibited Venezuelan oil imports to America.

The United States imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and PDVSA at the end of January to cut off a cash lifeline for Nicolas Maduro and his regime, after Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president of the Latin American country sitting on the world’s largest crude oil reserves.

Unable to export its crude oil to the United States—which didn’t import any crude oil from Venezuela in the week to March 15 for the first time ever since the EIA began tracking weekly U.S. crude oil imports—Venezuela is now prioritizing shipments to Asia, especially to China, with which it has struck oil-for-loan agreements and has to repay those with oil to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

While Venezuela’s oil exports to China averaged 233,000 bpd in February immediately after the U.S. sanctions cut off Venezuelan oil from the U.S. market, those exports nearly tripled to 656,000 bpd in June, according to the data. The U.S. didn’t import any crude oil from Venezuela last month, according to the data that Reuters has compiled.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... rude.html#

Looks like the petrodollar has been circumvented yet again.
#15021176
That means the Chinese Commies will have enough fuel to allow their tanks roll over my family and friends? One more reason to find a way to rid Venezuela of a murderer then. Better him than us!
#15021504
Patrickov wrote:That means the Chinese Commies will have enough fuel to allow their tanks roll over my family and friends? One more reason to find a way to rid Venezuela of a murderer then. Better him than us!

This is a bit artificious. Oil is a global commodity and China wouldn't have difficulty getting fuel to power it's tanks. That's a strawman.

I just thought I'd comment to counter your attempted distractions.

One of the most interesting aspects is that which Igor aptly picked up on. Oil for loan repayment is indeed another circumventing of the petro-dollar.
#15021508
Crantag wrote:This is a bit artificious. Oil is a global commodity and China wouldn't have difficulty getting fuel to power it's tanks. That's a strawman.

I just thought I'd comment to counter your attempted distractions.

One of the most interesting aspects is that which Igor aptly picked up on. Oil for loan repayment is indeed another circumventing of the petro-dollar.


Good call for busting my trolling :lol:

Seriously, barter economy is always the way to go when the currency system you use breaks down.
#15021537
Patrickov wrote:Good call for busting my trolling :lol:

Seriously, barter economy is always the way to go when the currency system you use breaks down.


Actually there is a little known fact how Venezuelan - Chinese oil trade functions. On top of the usual stuff, Venezuela also covers ALL of the shipping costs from Venezuela to China. I am not 100% sure Venezuelans are even running a profit with the current prices + covering all of the shipping costs. (Basically the agreement between China and Venezuela is that Venezuela extracts and ships the oil to where China wants it). In reality what China does a lot of the time is buys the Venezuelan oil and resells it to the US(Not all, but a lot of it depending on their capacities, since their capacity to process it is limited.) So basically they act as a sort of intermediary. This has been going on since Chavez times. Very inefficient system. When it was set up, it was an attempt from Chavez to diversify the buyers but it backfired spectacularly.
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