Iranian Situation... - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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User avatar
By BigSteve
#15013136
It's widely believed that Iran is to blame for the attacks on two oil tankers. Now, Iran has shot down a US drone which was flying in international air space.

How much provocation should be allowed before the United States strikes back at Iran?
#15013137


Not international space.

For the "provocation", check who's the one gathering troops on the other's borders.
Anyhow, Iran will be more than glad to light the region on fire if it was attacked.
By Sivad
#15013142
War with Iran wouldn't be all bad, it would kill off a lot of the idiots willing to fight in it.
User avatar
By BigSteve
#15013144
anasawad wrote:https://youtu.be/gqVJDEtEXOs

Not international space.

For the "provocation", check who's the one gathering troops on the other's borders.
Anyhow, Iran will be more than glad to light the region on fire if it was attacked.


Well, by all means, let's just accept them at their word.

Not...
By Torus34
#15013177
It's early days yet. We have claims and counterclaims regarding the location of the drone when it was fired upon. Not too many years ago, a similar situation occurred with a US ship. It took time for the truth to come out.
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15013183
If the American government has solid, verifiable evidence in both cases, then the TRUMP administration should\must tighten the economic screws on IRAN & tighten them until the regime breaks.
If the drone was knocked out over international waters outside of Iranian airspace,verifiable by locating the wreckage with independent witnesses, then, in both the drone - tanker scenario's, the American government should claim immediate compensation payments, or else apply immediate banking sanctions against the regime so that they can no longer trade through the global system.

Should they fail to comply, they should also be declared as outlaws,'treated' as such by having all international legal rights & protections withdrawn from the country.
User avatar
By fuser
#15013189
BigSteve wrote:It's widely believed that Iran is to blame for the attacks on two oil tankers. Now, Iran has shot down a US drone which was flying in international air space.

How much provocation should be allowed before the United States strikes back at Iran?


Widely believed? May be in USA (I doubt even there) but surely not in rest of the world.

Well, by all means, let's just accept them at their word.

Not...


I don't know I am kinda inclined to believe a party who doesn't do shit like "Guys Iraq totally has WMDs." :)
User avatar
By noemon
#15013208
Nonsense wrote:Should they fail to comply, they should also be declared as outlaws,'treated' as such by having all international legal rights & protections withdrawn from the country....or else apply immediate banking sanctions against the regime so that they can no longer trade through the global system.


It should be noted that the US had already declared the Iranian Military as a terrorist organisation and imposed banking sanctions on Iran even before the shipping incident.

fuser wrote:Widely believed? May be in USA (I doubt even there) but surely not in rest of the world.


Indeed, I doubt anyone even in the US believes that Iran would actively provoke a confrontation with the US or the west especially when the US has been openly provoking Iran unashamedly. What should be noted here though is that my impression was that Trump supporters were supposedly skeptical against the warmongering of the MSM which is why they allegedly voted for Trump instead of Killary, wasn't it? I guess situations like these make it transparent that it was mostly down to racism and that the rest of the excuses for electing Trump were convenient fig-leafs.

What is astonishing though is that European media use very neutral language to describe events. "The US alleges..." instead of the standard "Iran did it".

It is rather obvious that not even Britain will follow the US in the event that they decide to go ahead against Iran and that should they decide to do so, it will be a cataclysmic event for NATO and European-US relations.
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15013215
noemon wrote:It should be noted that the US had already declared the Iranian Military as a terrorist organisation and imposed banking sanctions on Iran even before the shipping incident.



Indeed, I doubt anyone even in the US believes that Iran would actively provoke a confrontation with the US or the west especially when the US has been openly provoking Iran unashamedly. What should be noted here though is that my impression was that Trump supporters were supposedly skeptical against the warmongering of the MSM which is why they allegedly voted for Trump instead of Killary, wasn't it? I guess situations like these make it transparent that it was mostly down to racism and that the rest of the excuses for electing Trump were convenient fig-leafs.

What is astonishing though is that European media use very neutral language to describe events. "The US alleges..." instead of the standard "Iran did it".

It is rather obvious that not even Britain will follow the US in the event that they decide to go ahead against Iran and that should they decide to do so, it will be a cataclysmic event for NATO and European-US relations.


I do not know the full extent of U.S banking sanctions on IRAN, whether they apply solely to military equipment supplies, both hard and soft, or whether it covers the economy as a whole, which it should do, as only then will the people of IRAN respond to what their government are doing.

The first video released on the tanker attacks was very poor quality for which one can understandably be sceptical, considering what one knows America is capable of in military intelligence gathering.
Of course, later videos showed much clearer definition & if the videos are not 'edited' are evidence enough of Iranian intentions which should not go unanswered.

There is a fine point between defence of territory & attacking targets outside of that territory.

Iran has breached that line, it's simple enough to understand that behaviour, it is intentionally provocative.
#15013217
Iranian regime needs to be removed.

The sanctions are working and Iran is desperate thats why they are falling for the trap the US made for them
a military confrontation is a matter of time and if Iran will take it too far they are going to get bombed for sure
but if they dont do anything the country will crumble from the inside
it doesn't matter what they do things wont work out in their favor
#15013218
@Nonsense
As @noemon already stated, the US already has its sanctions up, nothing left to do on that front.

For the bullshit about Iran "provoking" the US, again, try looking at the map and a little overview of the history to see who's provoking the other.
But again, talks are useless now, the US is determined to go to war and will use any excuse true or otherwise to do so.
The middle east will soon be in an all out regional war, so better for all to prepare for it.
If you watched local news in the middle east, you'd know Iraqi militias are preparing for war, Shommaris inside Saudi Arabia are already starting to make some noise it's only a matter of time before they start receiving weapons to fight( funny enough, the oil Saudi Arabia sells is mostly in the Shommari areas in the Shia regions, so the world economy will be having one hell of a ride when the war begins), and in Lebanon, not only Hezbollah but also the Baalbek tribes are starting to take arms and prepare their supplies.
Literally, it was just an hour ago where local news reported the movement of military hardware to the borders in the past couple of days.


On the plus side, who knows, maybe this will push people into electric cars in mass. :lol:


The sanctions are working and Iran is desperate thats why they are falling for the trap the US made for them

Trap ?
Which trap ?
The US is literally just blatantly lying all over the place, and Saudi Arabia is actively trying to stage a good enough fake flag attack.
You don't think the world is stupid enough to fall for this shit dude, do you ?

And don't kid yourself, we've been in the region for thousands of years, many much stronger enemies tried to destroy us and all failed, you'll be just another humiliated enemy. And since you're an Israeli, you personally would probably be in the line of fire, along side with your Saudi friends.
User avatar
By noemon
#15013220
Nonsense wrote:I do not know the full extent of U.S banking sanctions on IRAN, whether they apply solely to military equipment supplies, both hard and soft, or whether it covers the economy as a whole, which it should do, as only then will the people of IRAN respond to what their government are doing.


I reckon the only way the Iranian people will respond to the west is if they are treated as normal human beings rather than Bond villains. Persians are a remarkable people with abundant history, culture, taste for finer things in life and astonishing women. Iran responded well to the lifting of the sanctions a couple of years ago and the Iranians have been under very heavy sanctions since 1979, I doubt that the US can put any more pressure on them outside a direct invasion. Currently US sanctions include the majority of banking transactions and it is easier to speak of what is permitted rather than what is sanctioned.
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15013222
noemon wrote:I reckon the only way the Iranian people will respond to the west is if they are treated as normal human being rather than Bond villains. Persians are a remarkable people with abundant history, culture, taste for finer things in life and astonishing women. Iran responded well to the lifting of the sanctions a couple of years ago and the Iranians have been under very heavy sanctions since 1979, I doubt that the US can put any more pressure on them outside a direct invasion. Currently US sanctions include the majority of banking transactions and it is easier to speak of what is permitted rather than what is sanctioned.


There is of course a great difference between the people of a country & the government that 'leads' them.

You are absolutely correct about the people, women included, Iranians are well educated, cultured & I couldn't possibly disagree about the women.

Government's let the people down, with the downfall of the Shah, with the 'Theocratic' - military regime curently wielding it's unchecked power, it is likely to lead that country astray by it's actions.
User avatar
By ThirdTerm
#15013223
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its air force had shot down a US "spy" drone in the early hours after the unmanned aircraft violated Iranian airspace near Kuhmobarak in the southern province of Hormozgan.

In a speech on Iranian state TV, IRGC commander-in-chief Maj-Gen Hossein Salami said the drone's downing was a "clear message" to the US that Iran's borders were "our red line".

The US military's Central Command later confirmed that a US Navy Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS-D) aircraft was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in what it said was international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 23:35 GMT on Wednesday (04:05 Iran time on Thursday).


Image

A US military surveillance drone was shot down over the Strait of Hormuz, where few oil tankers were attacked by Iranian naval mines in previous weeks. Iran has always maintained the ownership of the Strait of Hormuz and this is an issue of freedom of navigation. The United States challenges China's excessive maritime claims in the Paracel Islands chain under its freedom of navigation program. Trump said the unmanned drone had been over international waters. America needs to make clear that the Strait of Hormuz does not exclusively belong to Iran without risking a direct confrontation just as it does with China in the South China Sea.
#15013225
@noemon
The only way to do business with Iran at the moment is through Lebanese banks, primarily Med Group and Iran imports bank.
Most others don't do transactions to Iran at the moment.


From a personal view, I would say the sanctions have been a positive rather than a negative.
As far as my sister tells me, the sanctions, especially when now there are sanctions on several types of food and medicine, have been forcing local industries and production to expand their production.
There is currently several projects, some operational and others in preparation, in the Seman river valleys to increase food production. (It's near Damghan where my family is from actually)
The vertical farming model which the university of Tehran ,where my sister works, is working on is starting to gain grounds as the administration is trying to utilize all available farm lands at the most efficient means.
The valley is one of most fertile lands in Iran, and for several years now it's been unused due to political disputes between provincial governments ( food production is shared, so there are quotas on how much each province puts into the market), but now it's being used again.
Local manufactoring, both public and private, has been receiving lots of incentives to expand production. There are several financing solutions being offered for small private businesses and workshops to open up and operate to service the market.
So it's might not be a very pleasant time under blockade, but the path it's putting Iran on is actually very good.
And Iran is not alone, Since the deal was broken, Iranian diplomats have been going all over to their allies to increase investment in Iranian industries and markets.
Baalbek alone have been seeing a near monthly visit by Iraninan diplomats, and offering incentives and tax breaks for the Baalbek tribes to invest, which they are responding to.

So the future looks better.

As far as war goes, the middle east is our region, and we have the defenders' advantage present in the topography of the land where any conflict will take place.
Along with heavy build up inside mountains and in fortified buildings ( a simple look at how thick the average factory walls in Iran would tell you what they're built to withstand), so the industry is safe.
And most Iranian cities, like Baalbek, have large networks of underground bunkers and shelters, built primarily in the 80s in fear of chemical attacks, that were expanded and maintained over the years, So the civilian population is also safe.
There will be damages incurred from a war, obviously, and that's why it's preferable for a war not to take place. But Iran, and all of its allies, are prepared for a war if one was to be forced on it, it's been preparing for years now.


EDIT:
For the political situation inside of Iran, it's actually going the exact opposite of what the Americans wished it would.
The hardliners, moderates, reformists, and the various socialist and liberal movements are actually uniting with each other at the moment.
A couple of years ago when peace seemed guaranteed, the political situation was actually very tense since once the deal was made, everyone freed up to fight over other internal issues.
Since the sanctions are back on, the deal was broken, and now a war seemingly imminent, everyone is getting back together and letting go of their differences.
Heck, even the tribes, usually living in their own world, are uniting with the various political factions.
#15013227
anasawad wrote:https://youtu.be/gqVJDEtEXOs

Not international space.

For the "provocation", check who's the one gathering troops on the other's borders.
Anyhow, Iran will be more than glad to light the region on fire if it was attacked.


That is the media reporting Iran's version of events, America is already undertaking a recovery of the downed drone in international waters in the Straits of Hormuz.
One would expect that America would invite independent U.N witnesses to attend the recovery, to gather positional & other data as evidence to the U.N.

If America felt it politically necessary to attract international support, why would it hesitate to do so?
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