Populists top Poland vote and expand majority, exit polls indicate - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15041816
Populists top Poland vote and expand majority, exit polls indicate

A strong win by the Law and Justice party could enable it to proceed with court reforms that risk undermining judicial independence and the rule of law

Image
Leader of Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski reacts after the first exit polls during the party's electoral evening in Warsaw, Poland, on October 13, 2019 (Wojtek RADWANSKI / AFP)

WARSAW, Poland — Poland’s governing right-wing party took the lead in Sunday’s general election, an exit poll showed, expanding its majority thanks to a raft of welfare measures coupled with attacks on LGBT rights and Western values.

The Law and Justice party (PiS) scored 43.6 percent of the vote for 239 seats in parliament, outpacing the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) opposition with 27.4% support (130 seats) and a leftist coalition that took 11.9% (43 seats), according to an Ipsos exit poll for Poland’s three major television stations.

“We have four years of hard work ahead. Poland must change more and it must change for the better,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski, PiS leader, told supporters at its Warsaw headquarters.

“I hope that the [official results] tomorrow will confirm our success,” Kaczynski said.

Experts have warned that a strong PiS win means it could proceed with court reforms that risk undermining judicial independence and the rule of law, something that is likely to further stoke conflict with the European Union.

In office since 2015, Kaczynski’s PiS has focused on poorer rural voters, coupling family values with a popular new child allowance, tax breaks for low-income earners and hikes to pensions and the minimum wage.

Widely regarded as Poland’s de facto leader, Kaczynski has also stoked deep social division by attacking sexual minorities and rejecting Western liberal values, all with the tacit blessing of Poland’s influential Catholic Church which holds sway over rural voters.

“The PiS is finally taking care of the weakest, most vulnerable members of society,” Kasia, a 40-year-old psychologist working at a women’s shelter, told AFP after voting in Warsaw. “I’ve seen it first hand at work.”

Kaczynski is among several populist leaders in the European Union favoring greater national sovereignty over the federalism championed by powerhouses France and Germany.

The PiS has sought favor with the Trump administration. Poland has long regarded the United States as the primary guarantor of its security within the NATO alliance and as a bulwark against Russia, its Soviet-era master with whom tensions still run high.

“In foreign policy, the PiS is standing up for Poland, not just blindly agreeing to what Germany or France want,” Michal, a 34-year-old Warsaw electrician said after voting.

Backed by outgoing EU Council President Donald Tusk — from Poland and Kaczynski’s arch-rival on the domestic scene — the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) has drawn mainly on urban voters upset by the PiS’s divisive politics, judicial reforms threatening the rule of law, graft scandals and monopolization of public media.

“I voted for democracy, to safeguard the future of my grandchildren,” Jadwiga Sperska, a 64-year-old working pensioner and KO supporter, said outside a Warsaw polling station.

“The current government’s direction could lead us out of the EU,” she added.

Condemning the anti-LGBT drive and close church ties, but sharing the PiS’s welfare goals, the left returned to parliament after a four-year hiatus.

“I support an open, tolerant society, without aggression and with same-sex unions,” said Monika Pronkiewicz, a 31-year-old public sector worker and left-wing voter in Warsaw.

In other parties, the PSL farmers/Kukiz 15 alliance took 9.6% of the vote for 34 seats and the Confederation, a far-right libertarian party, captured 6.4% support for 13 seats, Ipsos exit poll showed.

Kaczynski has tapped into a populist backlash against liberal elites, similar to trends in Western Europe and the US.

His party’s bid to build a welfare state appeals to Poles who felt left behind amid the explosive growth and unfettered free-market drive after communism fell in 1989.

Analysts suggest the social outlays have made the PiS a “teflon party,” cushioning its reputation amid a string of graft scandals involving senior members.

The KO had vowed to reverse PiS court reforms, which the EU says threaten judicial independence, but otherwise offered voters little.

Critics attribute strong economic growth under the PiS to favorable external factors.

A tight labor market in the EU country of 38 million people saw it become the world’s top temporary migrant labor destination in 2017, according to the OECD.

Preliminary official results are due on Monday.

Law and Justice has campaigned heavily against Jewish Holocaust restitution claims, leading Jewish leaders to warn that the debate had turned anti-Semitic. The month of May saw thousands of Polish nationalists march to the US Embassy to protest US pressure on Poland to compensate Jews whose families lost property during the Holocaust. It appeared to be one of the largest anti-Jewish street demonstrations in recent times.

Under the PiS Israel and Poland have also seen diplomatic tensions over Polish officials’ rejection of any culpability by the nation for anti-Semitic atrocities of the past, particularly during the Holocaust. Last year, the government introduced a controversial law that forbids blaming the Polish nation for Nazi crimes (though the legislation was softened following Israeli pressure to remove punitive measures).

Recent months have seen a dramatic rise in reports of Polish anti-Semitism online, in the media and in local politics.

Last month, the office of Polish President Andrzej Duda denied a report that the president had blamed Israel for recent anti-Semitic incidents in the country in a meeting with American Jewish officials.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/populists ... -indicate/

It seems that the populists are not everywhere in retreat.
Another defeat for the EU federalisation dreams.
#15041817
Ter wrote:https://www.timesofisrael.com/populists-top-poland-vote-and-expand-majority-exit-polls-indicate/

It seems that the populists are not everywhere in retreat.
Another defeat for the EU federalisation dreams.


(shrugs) What can one say to this? :?:

Do you know anything at all about the PiS(s) or Polish politics?

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/euro ... i-semitism

ion Camp” reads the sign at Majdanek: not the official sign but the one stuck on a trailer, parked just outside the gates. It tells visitors that the Germans murdered Jews, Poles, Belarussians, Ukrainians and Russians in this camp on the outskirts of the Polish city of Lublin.

“It’s not my job to explain that sign,” says our guide, turning her head to avoid seeing it. Everything the sign says is true. But telling the whole truth about the Holocaust is now a criminal offence in Poland.

The sign was put there by activists in support of a law passed by Poland’s right-wing government in January 2018. The law makes it illegal to assert that either “the Polish state or the Polish nation” participated in the Holocaust. Offenders are liable to three years’ imprisonment. Its passage triggered a diplomatic outcry both from Israel and the US, and has left many of Poland’s 20,000-strong Jewish community apprehensive.


Why? Because it is a fact, meticulously documented by new research over the past ten years, that while some Poles courageously defended Jews during the Holocaust, others killed them, denounced them or joined in the Nazi-orchestrated manhunt for them. For the ruling Law and Justice Party, which is trying to construct a nuance-free, nationalist victim-narrative for Poland, all these are facts too far.


(shrugs)
#15041819
Presvias wrote:The law makes it illegal to assert that either “the Polish state or the Polish nation” participated in the Holocaust. Offenders are liable to three years’ imprisonment.

Well I expect we will soon face similar prison time for asserting that there's only two genders. Poland is a heroic polish Catholic state and that is sacrosanct for them. We are a gay, trans, non binary multicultural mad house and that's sacrosanct for us. For the last week BBC iplayer has had a great a banner at the top of its page covering nearly the whole screen advertising RuPaul's drag race, what ever that is. Apparently even the climate crisis pales into insignificance compared to the urgency of the gay trans agenda.
#15041820
^ Clearly you're besotted by all of that. Idk what that has to do with the holocaust, unless rupees drag race is jewish or something, idk I don't follow such rubbish, clearly others follow the gay trans agenda for some odd reason and it enriches their knowledge. Whatever, it concerns me not one iota.

But hey this might interest you @Ter

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indepe ... html%3famp



Support for staying in the European Union has reached a record high in Poland despite the country’s right-wing populist government staging a political showdown with Brussels over the rule of law.

A new survey by pollsters CBOS shows 92 per cent of the Polish population wants to remain in the EU, up three per cent on the last poll – with just eight per cent wanting to leave, down three per cent.
#15041821
And yet, the European right wingers are much to be preferred compared to the millions of Muslim immigrants who hate Jews with a passion. Jews now get attacked on European streets, spat at and worse by many of them. I therefore sympathise with every European nation that is anti-immigrant.
#15041823
From the newstatesman article which you didn't even bother reading.. :roll:

Konstanty Gebert, a high-profile Jewish journalist and veteran of the Solidarnosc movement, demonstratively broke the new law on the first day of its operation. He has not been prosecuted, despite phoning around numerous public prosecutors to inform them of his crime.

He believes that, extrapolating from Grabowski’s figures, somewhere between 62,000 and 200,000 Jews were either murdered or denounced by Poles during the Second World War. For Gebert, the new law is a political signal by the ruling party to the far-right segment of its voters; its aim, as he puts it bluntly, is to “spite the kikes”. “Law and Justice is dependent on the fascist electorate – about 8 per cent of the vote,” he says. “The fascists have been voting Law and Justice because it has been slowly but surely implementing some elements of what they want to see. But if they backtrack on this law – ‘capitulate to Jewish pressure’ – there goes their support: they can’t get a majority.”

For Poland’s overtly anti-Semitic far-right, the row has been good for business. At a kiosk in Lublin railway station, where thousands of Jewish visitors from abroad arrive each year to visit the Majdanek museum, I found half a yard of anti-Semitic and far-right newspapers and magazines on sale, with Gazeta Warszawa in prime position. “History according to the Jews” reads its headline; alongside a strapline accusing the Polish prime minister of being an Israeli agent. That’s just page one. Inside there is a reprint of a Wikipedia page about the Rothschild family; almost every spread carries a negative story about Jews.

In the magazine Polska Niepodległa, historians who have documented the role of Polish gentiles in the Holocaust are labelled “fantasists”. The new law is justified as a pre-emptive strike against an alleged Jewish plan to grab Polish property.

“For the first 25 years after the fall of communism, anti-Semitism was in steady and slow decline. Over the last ten years we have seen the systematic growth of classical anti-Semitic attitudes,” says Gebert.

According to the Centre for Research on Prejudice, the percentage of Poles who believe Jews kidnap Christian children has risen from 11 to 25 per cent in just ten years. The number who believe Jews “strive to rule the world” stands at 43 per cent. Some 56 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement “the Jews want to get compensation from the Poles for the things that in fact were done to them by the Germans”.
#15041828
And yet, the European right wingers are much to be preferred compared to the millions of Muslim immigrants who hate Jews with a passion. Jews now get attacked on European streets, spat at and worse by many of them. I therefore sympathise with every European nation that is anti-immigrant.
#15041829
The sign was put there by activists in support of a law passed by Poland’s right-wing government in January 2018. The law makes it illegal to assert that either “the Polish state or the Polish nation” participated in the Holocaust. Offenders are liable to three years’ imprisonment. Its passage triggered a diplomatic outcry both from Israel and the US, and has left many of Poland’s 20,000-strong Jewish community apprehensive.


I brought up how this is completely acceptable and fine in a group of friends, and one of the Jews I know, who I normally agree with, was very much decided that this is anti-Semitic and wrong for the Polish to insist that the Poles as a people did not participate in the Holocaust.

Poland was completely victimized by both the Soviets & the Nazis, and never wanted to be under either of these. Of course, some people were cruel and participated in the extermination of Jews as collaborators, but this need not be a reflection on the nation.

I think that some people feel it is important to impugn nationalism & nationhood itself, and so anyone who esteems their country (and who isn't explicitly a victim) needs to 'check themselves' (or whatever they say). So, it is important for them to think that one of the people who suffered the most in WWII is also guilty of duh Holocaust. Everyone has to feel guilty so everyone can get hit by the same cudgel. It's not just enough that the Germans kowtow to the legacy of genocide -- absolutely everyone remotely relevant to the Western left has to feel guilty.

It's a weird flex, but I think I get it.
#15041834
Ter wrote:And yet, the European right wingers are much to be preferred compared to the millions of Muslim immigrants who hate Jews with a passion. Jews now get attacked on European streets, spat at and worse by many of them. I therefore sympathise with every European nation that is anti-immigrant.


You can repeat that 100 times if it makes you feel better, did you look at those stats? Do you even care about the truth or real violent anti-semitic incidents perpetrated in Europe against Jews?

You do realize there's a OBVIOUS correlation between anti-semitic rhetoric and violent attacks don't you? Even some extremist Islamic and weird left sects jump on board when such is mainstream opinion.

Kind of destroys your point utterly.


Verv wrote:
I brought up how this is completely acceptable and fine in a group of friends, and one of the Jews I know, who I normally agree with, was very much decided that this is anti-Semitic and wrong for the Polish to insist that the Poles as a people did not participate in the Holocaust.

Poland was completely victimized by both the Soviets & the Nazis, and never wanted to be under either of these. Of course, some people were cruel and participated in the extermination of Jews as collaborators, but this need not be a reflection on the nation.


No they're denying facts of history, don't try to BS me that they're not, re-read what I posted.

Historical revisionism is unacceptable when used to help Fascists vote for a party and that's that. It's disinfo being used for malicious purposes.

I think that some people feel it is important to impugn nationalism & nationhood itself, and so anyone who esteems their country (and who isn't explicitly a victim) needs to 'check themselves' (or whatever they say). So, it is important for them to think that one of the people who suffered the most in WWII is also guilty of duh Holocaust. Everyone has to feel guilty so everyone can get hit by the same cudgel. It's not just enough that the Germans kowtow to the legacy of genocide -- absolutely everyone remotely relevant to the Western left has to feel guilty.

It's a weird flex, but I think I get it.


Well I certainly don't, idk what you're even on about, just like that odd rant about bbc iplayer earlier.

Do you just decide to filibuster, bluster with completely seperate ideological tribalism whenever you want to illustrate your point? And I'm not a liberal, nor a communist, in fact you're talking to quite a traditionalist Orthodox Christian... but don't let that ruin a good nattering.
#15041844
Presvias wrote:You do realize there's a OBVIOUS correlation between anti-semitic rhetoric and violent attacks don't you? Even some extremist Islamic and weird left sects jump on board when such is mainstream opinion.

Kind of destroys your point utterly.


This is a pretty dangerous precedent you are aiming for: the free speech of some people (which is being called hate speech now) results in real violence. The obvious next conclusion is that it has to be regulated, right. I don't really like that.

We should defend against terror attacks and we should monitor groups or individuals that seem likely to pose such a threat. However, I do not believe that we should curb the sacred rights of man, if that is the direction that you're going.

No they're denying facts of history, don't try to BS me that they're not, re-read what I posted.

Historical revisionism is unacceptable when used to help Fascists vote for a party and that's that. It's disinfo being used for malicious purposes.


OK, the F-word is now in play. Got it. If we disagree with you, you might call us a Fascist.

So, how are the Polish people collectively guilty for the Holocaust? How did the Polish nation or state perpetrate the Holocaust?

Well I certainly don't, idk what you're even on about, just like that odd rant about bbc iplayer earlier.

Do you just decide to filibuster, bluster with completely seperate ideological tribalism whenever you want to illustrate your point? And I'm not a liberal, nor a communist, in fact you're talking to quite a traditionalist Orthodox Christian... but don't let that ruin a good nattering.


What a coincidence! I am also an Orthodox Christian, and I believe that I am also quite traditionalist.

There are some very socialistic people at my church, a Libertarian, some pretty far right people, some pretty apolitical people. Everyone's there. I am sure your church is the same.

You know, if you buddy up with the LEft, they will still never stop asking you to have female Priests and they'll try to get you to agree that the Priests should perform the sacrament of marraige for a gay couple, right? Be as left wing as you want to be, but this is a fact.
#15041852
1. No. You're ascribing positions to me that I don't hold. And what for?

I pointed out that they (PiS) encourage anti-semitism with their policies. They do. I think Ter is a Jewish guy who's very passionately Zionist and pro-Israeli. That is all eminently true.

2. No. You didn't read the factual stuff that got posted, the Fascists vote for them - it's the truth..
. “Law and Justice is dependent on the fascist electorate – about 8 per cent of the vote,” he says. “The fascists have been voting Law and Justice because it has been slowly but surely implementing some elements of what they want to see. But if they backtrack on this law – ‘capitulate to Jewish pressure’ – there goes their support: they can’t get a majority.”


3. Very good, your iconography looked very familiar. I am of course a nothing-sinner and hypocrite and confer my opinion only because it's what I can ascertain to be true. I may well be wrong..

Nonetheless, you've judged that I'l 'left' without any particular reason to. You assume that I'm okboard with the liberal-neocon agenda, but you're wrong.

There's another Ortho Christian on here, see what you think of our beliefs here:
#15041855
viewtopic.php?f=72&p=15041838#p15041838

And from my profile:

A worldwide confederation, where new societies can be started up in remote, unused locations and people can basically have what system they like; provided it follows basic universal rules of non-oppression, fairness, freedom and (roughly) collective governance.

Of course, you need a central authority with supreme power that keeps the peace and has real clout.

But that's the only way you can give everyone what they want; it's the only way the fascists can go and have their white paradise (hopefully far away from me..), the communists can have their communist paradise, the neoliberals can have their singaporean city state, the traditionalist conservatives can have gloucestershire, the islamist theocrats can have a chunk of Iran etc...

It's a mistaken idea that capitalism should be FORCED on everyone, or islamism, or OTT libertarianism, or communism, or even my own personal ideas wrt the community I'd live in myself


I'd personally live in a monastic Orthodox Christian society, but believe others have the right to live in the society of their choosing. Is that an 'imposing' authoritarian left wing ideology?
#15041882
(1a) I did not know that Ter is Jewish. I thought that he had been raised Christian but turned secular. I draw on this from a story that he had shared when he was in Africa where he stated that he had told the official he had no religion but they still listed him as Christian. Of course, that is not a definitive answer to Ter's religious status, but I hadn't seen mention of a Jewish background. But that's irrelevant!

(1b) OK, I see, I was reading too far into it. Usually, when someone talks about the environment producing anti-Semitism or some such, I am used to immediately seeing a woman in a pantsuit or a metrosexual man tell me that hate speech isn't free speech.

(2) Whose analysis is that? The word "Fascist" is routinely misused and it is pulled out whenever the ADL or SPLC or any George Soros group wants to rally its base.

8% of the Polish electorate is "Fascist" because they piss off far left think tanks. Who knows who these people really are. There is going to be no forthcoming answer on that from the Left and from the globalist & zionist conservatives. It's just a bogeyman.

(3a) It's St. Jacob of Nisbis, my patron saint!

(3b.) I shouldn't assume. But we all do it. I do not regret it. I do not have time to memorize and endlessly read through everyone's positions.

But you know what, sure, I will read that thread later. I already know that i like Annater's posts overall. ^^

(3c.) I do not believe in closing the circle around what is Orthodox. Let everyone have their politics and as long as it does not explicitly conflict with CHristian teaching, it is legitimate.
#15041890
Everything clashes with Orthodox teaching in this corrupted world. :p .

All politics pretty much does. We're not supposed to pass judgement on anyone at all, whatsoever, except ourselves remember? Most of the rest of what you wrote is your own subjective opinion, which you are entitled to. Anyway, fellow Orthodox have a special understanding and are exempted with a free pass, seeing as we know we're the lowest hypocrites and only say what we say out of 'love' and all the other Theological positions we hold. :)
#15041909
Verv wrote:I did not know that Ter is Jewish. I thought that he had been raised Christian but turned secular. I draw on this from a story that he had shared when he was in Africa where he stated that he had told the official he had no religion but they still listed him as Christian. Of course, that is not a definitive answer to Ter's religious status, but I hadn't seen mention of a Jewish background. But that's irrelevant!


I have indeed no religion at all.
Yes @Verv you remembered that visa anecdote very well. I come from a country where it is against the law to ask for someone's religion or race, and in that visa form for Zambia, they asked for both. As this was the first time in my life that I had to answer these questions, I wrote "N/A" Not applicable and "White". They refused to issue my visa with those answers and the FAO people changed it to "Christian" and "European" lol.
And yes @Verv it is totally irrelevant.

Frau Merkel has changed world history for the worse with her "Wir schaffen dass".
#15041917
Ter wrote:It seems that the populists are not everywhere in retreat.
Another defeat for the EU federalisation dreams.

Sure, you can always count on Poland as a backward nation, but even Orbán suffered a blow yesterday. :D

Also, @Ter, the EU core will create their federation if they want to anyway and I'm not sure if they'd want to involve Poland too. :lol:
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