[JohnRawls]

Small update on the situation in Iran:

1) Internet is basically shut down. There is some internet access inside the country and in cities but most connections to outside world are inactive.

2) Same thing with cellular/mobile communication. Cities have it inside them to a degree but you can't contact people outside of Iran or even between cities in most cases.

3) There are obviously some exception depending on how lucky you are.

4) Protests are wide spread and are not localised to one city. It seems that there are protests in majority if not all large cities.

5) Due to the crackdown and the violence, The Reformist movement can no longer cooperate or negotiate with the regime hardlines. Basically this will end with a victory of the regime or the reformists. I doubt a compromise is possible anymore.

6) There is either not enough security forces or some security units are simply not obeying the crackdown. Basically the protest is not under control by the regime. There are videos and it seems that police is NOT supporting the crackdown. At least not everywhere. I am not sure about the military. It might be a situation where not all military supports the regime but some does along with the revolutaniary guard.

7) The regime is threteaning to outright kill the protesters and prosecute them if they get the protest under control. It puts the reformists in a no-going-back scenario. And by prosecute, i mean executions.

8 ) Its hard to say who is conducting the majority of the violence in regards to the protesters. (Probably IRGC) It seems that there were definately situations where life rounds were fired at crowds.

9) This is a full blown revolution it seems. It is possible that Iran can control it in the end but it will require a lot of violence on their side. Not an ordinary protest. Most things that anasawad said is true. Monuments to Khomenei have been destroyed and theological schools have been set on fire. Protesters want full reform of the political system and chant "Death to Khomene, Bless the Sha" or at least something along those lines.

10) On the funny side, from China. Chinese news are broadcasting that all those protests are in support of the oil price increase in the country??

[Zionist Nationalist]

[Patrickov]

This is rather unfair. It is the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, who has the final say. Rouhani is a reformist-supported figure who unfortunately had to make this decision.

[Patrickov]

10) On the funny side, from China. Chinese news are broadcasting that all those protests are in support of the oil price increase in the country??

It is clear that the Chinese Commies must be destroyed to achieve world peace.

[skinster]

[JohnRawls]

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1198683372102529024?s=20

It is not going to work. The only 2-4 currencies that matter are: The dollar, The Euro, the Yen and the pound. The rest of the currency are pretty minor compared to them. To trade you need convertible and acceptable currency which are stable.

Reserves:


Exchange:


So Iran can't get something from China that it doesn't have. Even China itself doesn't trade in Yuan which is a problem with them. They use it inside the country but not for outside trade.

[skinster]

[late]

Hear what this Iranian professor has to say about the prospect of a U.S. war with Iran.

Iran isn't Iraq.

I didn't watch the video, but he's right. There won't be war with Iran.

[skinster]

I don't think there will at all, despite Zionist fantasies. The U.S. is trying to weaken the country and then hoping it'll bend to its will but the Iranians don't have short memories, they've been under American attack for decades and are standing firm against them.

[Patrickov]

I don't think there will at all, despite Zionist fantasies. The U.S. is trying to weaken the country and then hoping it'll bend to its will but the Iranians don't have short memories, they've been under American attack for decades and are standing firm against them.

It will change when they find everybody else -- including themselves -- worse.

[skinster]

[late]

It is not going to work. The only 2-4 currencies that matter are: The dollar, The Euro, the Yen and the pound.

Nope.

The USSR ruble was nonconvertible, so they did many millions of dollars worth of exchanges through barter. It's inefficient, and an extra expense (usually) but it can be done. That went on for a long time.

This is likely to be temporary. Remove Trump, and it's going to go poof.

[JohnRawls]

Nope.

The USSR ruble was nonconvertible, so they did many millions of dollars worth of exchanges through barter. It's inefficient, and an extra expense (usually) but it can be done. That went on for a long time.

This is likely to be temporary. Remove Trump, and it's going to go poof.

And it was one of the factors of USSRs fall. It basically run out of dollars(From oil) and was not able to buy the essentials with rubles. Barter was not working as well also.

[late]

And it was one of the factors of USSRs fall. It basically run out of dollars(From oil) and was not able to buy the essentials with rubles. Barter was not working as well also.

Almost.

The price of oil crashed, and that made the goods they had to exchange bought them a lot less in trade.

Barter was working. There was this chasm between their drop in income, and the growing need that was caused by the inefficiency of a command economy.

[JohnRawls]

Almost.

The price of oil crashed, and that made the goods they had to exchange bought them a lot less in trade.

Barter was working. There was this chasm between their drop in income, and the growing need that was caused by the inefficiency of a command economy.

But don't you see the similarities with Iran here. Inefficient economy check, Oil dependence check, Oil prices going lower check, US sanctions check, attempting to establish barter economy check.

[late]

But don't you see the similarities with Iran here. Inefficient economy check, Oil dependence check, Oil prices going lower check, US sanctions check, attempting to establish barter economy check.

You said it didn't work. It does.

And this should be temporary, since this approach causes damage to us, as well as to Iran. Once we dump the chump, anyone sane is going to kill most of the economic sanctions we have levied against Iran.

[JohnRawls]

You said it didn't work. It does.

And this should be temporary, since this approach causes damage to us, as well as to Iran. Once we dump the chump, anyone sane is going to kill most of the economic sanctions we have levied against Iran.

Not really because the sanctions are working.(For US puproses and what it want to achieve). Unless Europe throws a hicy fit then there is no real need to cancel that policy for the US.

[late]

Not really because the sanctions are working.(For US purposes and what it want to achieve). Unless Europe throws a hissy fit then there is no real need to cancel that policy for the US.

They are a monkey wrench throw into our international relations.

"Not surprisingly, Trump’s ill-conceived “maximum pressure” campaign, which involves reimposing sanctions that were lifted when Iran met key JCPOA requirements, has done nothing to force changes in Iran’s regional behavior or push Iran into accepting new U.S. demands. Rather, the policy has sharply increased tensions in the Persian Gulf and decreased Iran’s incentives to continue compliance with the JCPOA."
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-06 ... ran-policy

"The strikes represent a surprising and ill-conceived escalation by Iran, just as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared be on the brink of offering concessions as an incentive to return to direct negotiations with the United States. But they also represent a massive, self-inflicted policy failure by the Trump administration, which triggered the crisis in the first place and has since worsened it through diplomatic, rhetorical, and strategic blunders."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/25/tr ... a-failure/

[JohnRawls]

They are a monkey wrench throw into our international relations.

"Not surprisingly, Trump’s ill-conceived “maximum pressure” campaign, which involves reimposing sanctions that were lifted when Iran met key JCPOA requirements, has done nothing to force changes in Iran’s regional behavior or push Iran into accepting new U.S. demands. Rather, the policy has sharply increased tensions in the Persian Gulf and decreased Iran’s incentives to continue compliance with the JCPOA."
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-06 ... ran-policy

"The strikes represent a surprising and ill-conceived escalation by Iran, just as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared be on the brink of offering concessions as an incentive to return to direct negotiations with the United States. But they also represent a massive, self-inflicted policy failure by the Trump administration, which triggered the crisis in the first place and has since worsened it through diplomatic, rhetorical, and strategic blunders."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/25/tr ... a-failure/

It is the same thing with support for Israel. US is very self-sufficient and there is no correlation between global trade/foreign relations and US voting preferences inside the country. So US might as well glass the world and the US populace wouldnt care much.

The only thing that might make US reconsider is loosing support of its most crucial allies. (Europe, Japan, Autralia, New Zealand, South Korea) Australia, South Korea and New Zealand do not frankly care about this. Japan and Europe might care. Japan less and Europe more. But do we care enough to raise a hicy fit about it? And when i say this, i obviously mean not just the politicians but also the people.

[late]

It is the same thing with support for Israel. US is very self-sufficient and there is no correlation between global trade/foreign relations and US voting preferences inside the country. So US might as well glass the world and the US populace wouldnt care much.

The only thing that might make US reconsider is loosing support of its most crucial allies. (Europe, Japan, Autralia, New Zealand, South Korea) Australia, South Korea and New Zealand do not frankly care about this. Japan and Europe might care. Japan less and Europe more. But do we care enough to raise a hicy fit about it? And when i say this, i obviously mean not just the politicians but also the people.

Stupidity carries a price tag.

The cost is exponentially higher than you seem to think.