I can’t say I see much convincing in points about arsonists and the attribution of lack of burnings to a minority party ie The Greens in explaining why this fire is the worst in recent memory.
Even if established as true it doesn’t do much than leave the issue at speculation not showing the clear weight of such an asserted issue and the massive fires springing up across the east and south east of Australia.
And why earlier I mentioned the futility of speaking vaguely about climate change is that this doesn't give an explanatory concept as to most people its to abstract to grapple.
Hence the point more specifically about Australians own indian el nino.
Which I think the only way one could argue against is in skepticism of the methods that establish such a relationship to the point of denying the very notion of it.
The weather is the biggest determinant of fire hazard hence why in hot and dry conditions no matter what one enacts a fire ban. And the weather was ripe for this fire storm.https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-not-normal-what-s-different-about-the-nsw-mega-fires-20191110-p5395e.html
In NSW, our worst fire years were almost always during an El Nino event, and major property losses generally occurred from late November to February. Based on more than a century of weather observations our official fire danger season is legislated from October 1 to March 31. During the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April.
The October 2013 fires that destroyed more than 200 homes were the earliest large-loss fires in NSW history – again, not during an El Nino.
This year, by the beginning of November, we had already lost about as many homes as during the disastrous 2001-2002 bushfire season. We’ve now eclipsed 1994 fire losses. Fires are burning in places and at intensities never before experienced – rainforests in northern NSW, tropical Queensland, and the formerly wet old-growth forests in Tasmania.
On Friday, the NSW Rural Fire Service sent out an alert that fires were creating thunderstorms – pyro-convective events. In my 47 years of fighting fires I don’t remember this happening much. Now it happens quite regularly. On Friday, the atmosphere was relatively stable and therefore shouldn’t have been conducive to these wildly unpredictable and dangerous events. Yet it happened. Unprecedented.
The drought we are facing is more intense than the Millennium Drought, with higher levels of evaporation due to higher temperatures. This has dried out the bush and made it easier for fires to start, easier for them to spread quickly, and as we saw on Friday, enabling spot fires to start twice as far ahead of the main fires as we would normally expect.
Warmer, drier conditions with higher fire danger are preventing agencies from conducting as much hazard reduction burning – it is often either too wet, or too dry and windy to burn safely. Blaming "greenies" for stopping these important measures is a familiar, populist, but basically untrue claim.
Together with 22 other retired fire and emergency service chiefs, I spoke out earlier this year. We felt we had a duty to tell people how climate change is super-charging our natural disaster risks. I wish we were wrong, but we’re not.
He emphasizes the word unprecedented. The point being that one has to discern whether this is honestly just a matter of quantity or this is fact discernibly something of a different quality. The ocean is made of water just as a small puddle is but one discerns their different quantities through qualities emphasized in their very name. Of course one could mistake the variance by only referring to them as water just as a fire in my backyard uses the same label as those raging now. But with the increasingly anomalous, unprecedented or irregular qualities of these bushfires one has to explain what changed and arsonists and assertions of a lack of control burns being an ideological product than a practical limitation of the increasingly hot and dry climate doesn’t explain much. They as facts don’t hold the explanatory power and hence they are only associatively mentioned and not properly explained how they played so significant a causal role in this mass scale of bushfires.
I’m no expert on the weather, fires and such but if The force of persuasion extends only as far as it has thus, a new strategy is in order as it seems ill fitted to the task.