[KurtFF8]

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Biden wins Michigan primary but sheds support over Gaza

Campaign to vote ‘uncommitted’ in protest of Biden’s support of Israel shows Arab American and young voters’ fury in swing state

Michigan primary 2024: track live results

Alice Herman in Madison, Wisconsin and Oliver Laughland in Dearborn, Michigan
Wed 28 Feb 2024 12.49 GMT
First published on Wed 28 Feb 2024 02.04 GMT

Joe Biden has won the Democratic primary in Michigan – but a concerted effort by anti-war activists to vote “uncommitted” in the race could overshadow his win.

The US president faced no real primary challenger in the contest. But a campaign that formed just weeks before the primary to vote “uncommitted” in protest of his continued support for Israel’s war in Gaza signaled the fury and betrayal some Arab American and younger voters in the state feel for Biden.

The group pushing for voters to choose “uncommitted” – called Listen to Michigan – set the goal of 10,000 uncommitted votes in the primary. With more than half of the votes tallied Tuesday night, “uncommitted” had received 74,000 votes out of a total of more than 580,000 – almost 13% of the vote.

For context, when the then president, Barack Obama, ran uncontested in the 2012 race, about 21,000 voted “uncommitted” against him in Michigan’s primary, with about 194,000 voting in total - just over 9% of voters.

Trump narrowly won the state by just 11,000 votes in 2016 and organisers of the “uncommitted” effort wanted to show that they have at least the number of votes that were Trump’s margin of victory in 2016, to demonstrate how influential the bloc can be.

As results came in after polls closed at 8pm, members of the Listen to Michigan campaign gathered at a banquet hall in Dearborn and declared the results a victory for their campaign. Attendees embraced and celebrated, many wearing the black and white keffiyeh.

Before handing the microphone off to a series of speakers for the campaign, Abbas Alawieh, a Listen to Michigan spokesperson, held a moment’s silence “for every human life that has been taken from us too soon using US taxpayer funds and bombs”.
“Thank you to our local and national progressive organizations and our voters of conscience, who used our democratic process to vote against war, genocide and the destruction of a people and a land,” said Layla Elabed, who launched the campaign in early February.

The former congressman Andy Levin, an early and prominent local supporter of the push to vote “uncommitted”, called the movement “a child of necessity” and said the turnout so far was “a huge victory”.

“There is no hope for security and peace for the Jewish people without security and peace and freedom and justice for the Palestinian people,” said Levin, to cheers.

The Listen to Michigan campaign was intended as a warning for Biden to revise his so far unwavering support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza, which has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians, ahead of the general election. The campaign is especially significant in Michigan given the state’s large Arab American population, a group that supported Biden strongly in 2020.

But it isn’t clear what share of “uncommitted” voters are prepared to abandon Biden in the general election this November, when he will most likely face Donald Trump – who is campaigning on a pledge to reinstate and expand his Muslim travel ban.

There were some warning signs for Trump in his victory in Michigan, too. Early reporting out of Kent county, which flipped to Biden in the 2020 presidential election, showed Trump with a slimmer margin of victory – in an area that is significant to the conservative movement and home to the conservative mega-donors the DeVoses.

“You can’t win a general election if you don’t acknowledge the 40% of Republicans who are saying we don’t want Donald Trump,” said Haley at a press conference in Grand Rapids ahead of the primary, referring to the share of Republican voters in South Carolina who voted for her.

A day before the primary, Biden announced a ceasefire could come as soon as Monday – but both Hamas and Israeli officials denied that negotiations had progressed substantially.

In a statement on Tuesday night, Biden did not address the Listen to Michigan campaign or the growing tally of voters who cast their ballots as “uncommitted”, instead touting his record on labor and warning that Trump is “threatening to drag us even further into the past as he pursues revenge and retribution”.

Good to see this trend of Biden seeing pressure from his own base, hopefully it continues and increases.

[Tainari88]

@KurtFF8 the problem is the lack of being democratic and allowing fair and free candidates to the Biden choice. They forcibly shut down any and all real challengers to a Biden presidency. And the moderate and justified concessions that Obama had in certain foreign policy initiatives were never followed by the Biden administration. They are as hawkish as a Hillary Rodham Clinton administration would have been with the Middle East.

These establishment only allowed Democrats are going to have to take responsibility for their lack of internal support from many sectors. They refused to allow them to be free to elect a different candidate.

[wat0n]

13% isn't a strong showing, at all. They couldn't even get a single delegate.

[Tainari88]

13% isn't a strong showing, at all. They couldn't even get a single delegate.

Wat0n, 13% can make or break an election in a contested state like Michigan. Colorado is a solidly Democrat voting state. If I vote or not for Biden or against Biden it will make no difference. Colorado has overwhelming numbers.

Therefore, Michigan is much more contentious and can go for Trump. But it has a lot of very slim margins for a pro Biden win. A winner takes all system is that way. 13% of the Arab American vote can literally lose the state for Biden unless he promises to change his policy with Israel.

They can literally write in a Mickey Mouse vote. Instead of Biden. Or some other Democrat that is on the ballot. Trump wins that state. Biden loses due to those 74,000 uncommitted voters. Why? Because Michigan is a purple state. What is a purple state? A state that can go blue or red, depending on who and how many of the voters turn out and vote as a bloc.

That is what that means. It is a swing state.

[wat0n]

13% of Democrats vs 26% of Republicans who voted for Hailey.

Nope, not enough. And it's not like these guys will go running to vote for Trump, if they do and he wins, I will laugh when he lets Israel annex Ma'ale Adumim and Gush Etzion.

Also, this isn't even the relevant figure. The figure that matters is how many people voted in each primary (raw count), and how it compares to 2012 and 2020 (the two last elections with an incumbent President running).

[Tainari88]

13% of Democrats vs 26% of Republicans who voted for Hailey.

Nope, not enough. And it's not like these guys will go running to vote for Trump, if they do and he wins, I will laugh when he lets Israel annex Ma'ale Adumim and Gush Etzion.

Also, this isn't even the relevant figure. The figure that matters is how many people voted in each primary (raw count), and how it compares to 2012 and 2020 (the two last elections with an incumbent President running).

Michigan voted for Obama back in 2008. They then voted for Trump in 2016. That is a swing state by definition.

The Democrats are going to have to consider those Arab Americans Wat0n in Michigan.

A few swing states are critical to clinch the presidency. That is why Trump was running around asking for a measly 11,000 votes from the guy in Georgia.

300,000 Arab-Americans
Michigan is home to more than 300,000 Arab-Americans. Trump won the state by less than 11,000 votes in 2016, and Biden in 2020 by 154,000 votes, including many cast by Arab-Americans.3 days ago

Watching the watchdogs: Biden, US media and Arab-American political power - Al Jazeera

Those are a whole lot of Arab American pro-Palestine people. They vote either Republican or Democrat. Since the Republicans are a bunch of backers of Israel only? They are going to vote for Biden. But if Biden does not clean up his Israel no matter what Bibi Netanyahu goes on without any checking? They can rally almost every Arab vote and take it all away from him. That is the threat of bloc voting. They do that with worker unions and organizations with millions of members like the Teamsters and so on. It is very common in US politics and also in international politics.

[wat0n]

They can do it, and get Trump elected if they want.

It's not a credible threat.

[Scamp]

Michigan results...
Trump 756,766
Biden 618,148

[wat0n]

It's more useful to compare to the last times an incumbent POTUS was on the ballot.

Current 2024 primary:

GOP: 1,105,989 votes (754,351 for Trump, 68.21%)
Dem: 757,574 votes (614,727 for Biden, 81.14%)

2012 (last time there was a Dem incumbent running for POTUS):

GOP: 996,499 votes (409,522 for Romney, 41.10%)
Dem: 194,887 votes (174,054 for Obama, 89.31%)

Obama won the general election by 9.5 percentage points.

2020:

GOP: 683,431 votes (640,522 for Trump, 93.72%)
Dem: 1,587,679 votes (840,360 for Biden, 52.93%)

Biden won by 2.78 percentage points.

I think it's remarkable to see how enthusiastic the Dem base is to go on and show support for Biden, just to stop Trump.

[late]

I think it's remarkable to see how enthusiastic the Dem base is to go on and show support for Biden, just to stop Trump.

Most politics is local..

[wat0n]

Most politics is local..

This wasn't a local politics issue. Voters themselves are saying they can't let Trump win.

[Tainari88]

They can do it, and get Trump elected if they want.

It's not a credible threat.

Of course it is a credible threat.

The governor Gretchen Whitmer is a Democrat. Michigan is not a solidly Republican state. It can get tight in Michigan.

Some states are a lost cause for Trump. California for example is a case in point. Many in the Republican Party do not waste a lot of money in Los Angeles County or in San Francisco either. Why? The Republicans always lose in those places. If you spend limited resources on counties you know are not going to swing no matter what you do? You cut your losses and head on out to the places where a few white Conservative women who sneakily had abortions about four or five years ago are pissed off about having to be forced to have babies against their pocketbooks.

So you flip them. Over one issue.

Politics for many is really just playing at strategy.

I find people who flip flop in elections and between parties kind of strange to be truthful.

But there are a lot of swing voters in the world. They get some garbled message, have very little time to read up in depth about which issue is from what platform and they mostly cast votes for one or two issues they care about and the rest they throw up their hands and say, 'can't win them all. This week I had problems with potholes. The mayor sucks. I am voting for the other party. At least that guy filled in the potholes in that other city he used to live in and I heard him say he will do the same in my street.'

That is the way it is locally in many places.

[wat0n]

Of course it is a credible threat.

No, it's not.

If Trump wins, he'll be an even stronger supporter of Israel than Biden is. He will deepen the so-called Muslim ban, too, and may as well just let Israel annex settlements in the West Bank.

How exactly does letting Trump win align with their stated interests?

Even worse, their electoral performance was rather... Poor for all the noise they made. Biden got over 80% Democratic support, and with a lot of votes (considering he's an incumbent) to boot. There were almost as many people voting for Biden yesterday than voters in the GOP primary in 2020.

[Tainari88]

Most politics is local..

100% true. The concept of politics always starts at a local level. You have mayors, then congressional districts or municipal districts, then you have state senators and congressional reps, and then you have the governorships. Each governor that is ruling a state is like a mini president of that state. Many laws that the feds try to apply for all fifty states does not apply to a state that rejects a federal law.

Colorado is a good example. Marijuana is legal to buy and sell and grow for local sales in Colorado. With regulations of course. But the Marijuana businesses can't accept MasterCard or VISA or American Express to pay for it. Because the banking industry is federal and if there is a single state of the Union that has Marijuana that is an illicit and illegal drug on the books? It is considered a felony to accept a bank transaction for it.

So if you want to buy marijuana in Colorado you need to pay for it in cash. You also can't deposit that money in a bank account that is regulated by the FDIC. So? You take the cash and launder it legally or you invest the cash in real estate or something else within the state of Colorado. That money from Marijuana sales in Colorado has transformed the city of Denver. It has made it extremely luxurious and expensive over time. The schools have been fattened up with taxes from that business, the roads and construction are always being maintained beautifully and the parks and recreation and cultural centers are spectacularly well funded now. They do it to get tax write-offs over that cash flow from those businesses.

It is super interesting Wat0n.

[Tainari88]

No, it's not.

If Trump wins, he'll be an even stronger supporter of Israel than Biden is. He will deepen the so-called Muslim ban, too, and may as well just let Israel annex settlements in the West Bank.

How exactly does letting Trump win align with their stated interests?

Even worse, their electoral performance was rather... Poor for all the noise they made. Biden got over 80% Democratic support, and with a lot of votes (considering he's an incumbent) to boot. There were almost as many people voting for Biden yesterday than voters in the GOP primary in 2020.

That is not the issue Wat0n. The issue is if the state is a toss up between Biden and Trump? Then Biden has to cede something to the Michigan Arab Americans. He can risk losing to Trump Michigan, but in a very tight race? He might lose over less than 100,000 votes. Votes that that bloc can deliver.

Now, if Michigan is all for Biden or all for Trump by a large margin? It will not matter what Michigan Arab Americans vote for or not. But they are ethnically speaking this percentage of Michigan voters:

Why are there so many Middle Eastern people in Detroit?
History of the Middle Eastern people in Metro Detroit - Wikipedia
Arab immigrants continued traveling to Detroit even after the automobile industry decline of the 1970s. The 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War resulted in a wave of immigration to Detroit. Many Iraqis immigrated to Metro Detroit after the Gulf War of 1991 and the Iraq War of 2003.

What percent of Dearborn Michigan is Arab?
54.5%
About 54.5% of the 109,976 residents of Dearborn are of Middle Eastern or North African (MENA) ancestry, most of them Arab, according to 2020 census data.Sep 26, 2023

If Trump is pulling ahead by a few points in some poll near November election time and he calls up a leader of that Uncommitted movement and promises to force Bibi to stop bombing for a month if he can get guarantees of the needed votes from Michigan? Then that is what will happen.

If they know Trump will win anyway with or without their voting they can either stay home and not vote or vote for Biden or also try to make a deal with Trump. Lol. To go harder on Bibi man.

Lol.
All that is sheer political stuff Wat0n. You can't afford to sneeze at about 300k votes.

That is the issue with Hillary. Over confident about winning over Trump. She was the ex Secretary of State, a New York state Senator, had tremendous money, and influence and had the connections of a successful two time presidency on her side. She lost to a conman from Queens. WHY?

She underestimated the Deplorables and the people fed up with Clintonian crap politics.

And did not work the final states that clinched the EC for Trump. Many believe if she had made a few trips over some of those swingy states and worked them a lot harder? She would have been able to gain the EC.

She did not work the swingy states. She lost. If she had massaged some egos in Michigan in 2016?

it is all iffy.

[wat0n]

@Tainari88 if Biden loses Michigan, it won't be because Arab-Americans stayed home. And giving them too much can hurt him not just in Michigan but nationally.

[Tainari88]

@Tainari88 if Biden loses Michigan, it won't be because Arab-Americans stayed home. And giving them too much can hurt him not just in Michigan but nationally.

Have you studied what happened in 2000 with Gore Bush? Or other tight races? How it all was state to state?

Out of all the fifty states which state has the most population and the most diversity in terms of people from many different ethnicities? The least Anglo-influenced state in the entire United States of America? The answer is California.

So what does it mean that if California is for Biden? That he automatically wins the presidency? No.

California is huge and influential but it is not strong enough to overtake a bunch of other states that have a lot of voters who are not Democrats. It is really the battle of the Urban Liberal Democratic strongholds and the Rural Redneck Towns who love God, Guns and Hate Gays and love Trump.

In terms of sheer numbers the Urban Liberals outnumber the Rednecks by a lot. But the issue is how those electoral college votes are distributed and how the system works. Wyoming is an empty state. You drive to Wyoming and it has hardly any real cities. Just small towns:

YET THEY HAVE THE SAME CLOUT IN THE SENATE AS CALIFORNIA.

[wat0n]

@Tainari88 and you're forgetting the importance of other battleground states.

Take Georgia, for example. It sends 16 delegates to the electoral college (Michigan sends 15). Around 141,000 Jews and 34,000 Arabs live in Georgia, and Biden won by those 11,700 votes Trump wanted to overturn.

Or take Pennsylvania, with its 20 delegates. Some 74,000 Arabs live there, as opposed to 434,000 Jews. Biden won the state by 80,000 votes.

What do you think will happen if Biden gives the Arabs from Michigan too much?

[late]

This wasn't a local politics issue. Voters themselves are saying they can't let Trump win.

So we can count politics as something you've not done yet.

They used to say all politics is local. Newt changed that.

But in this case, it was voters demonstrating their support. There were prob several reasons, but among them is a silent rebuff of Muslim objections, a equally quiet rejection of the craziness in that state, and, of course, the aversion to Trump. (There is an identical, if less sane, version on the Right).

"But then, self-appointed augurs that we are, we start looking more closely, digging through the remains of the contest and holding things up to the light. In fairness, many observers, including many in the media, were doing this before the polls closed, announcing loudly what they expected to find in Michigan’s slimy entrails. (This is an augury reference, not a function of my having gone to Ohio State.) That’s what I mean when I say that it’s hard to differentiate between finding something important and the importance of finding something.

One thing that people are seizing upon in Michigan is the fact that 1 in 8 Democratic primary voters opted to vote for “uncommitted” rather than the incumbent president. The organizers of the effort to send a message to Biden — generally about his approach to the war in Gaza — stated that they hoped to get 10,000 people to vote in that way. They ended up getting more than 100,000."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/28/biden-michigan-primary-trump/

[late]

Have you studied what happened in 2000 with Gore Bush? Or other tight races? How it all was state to state?

In this case, he is right.

There prob aren't enough Muslims to throw the state to Trump, and a lot can change between now and November.

And while he wasn't explicit, supporting Muslims could easily piss off another voting block that has a history of vindictiveness...