[jimjam]

I have been reading/studying history most of my life. I find it endlessly fascinating. I am also fascinated by human nature and see, what I consider to be, remarkable parallels between these two areas. When I read history I see the hidden, and sometimes not so hidden, influence of human nature on events. A very predominant controller/influence on history is, simply, human nature. Human nature may vary but it essentially remains constant through the ages. I find that to study history is to study human nature in all of it's strengths and weaknesses. Mostly, unfortunately, it's weaknesses. You have all heard the expression that history repeats. This is true, I feel, due to the fact that it's most influential determinator is, simply, human nature. An obvious example is the boom and bust cycle which is a frequent historical event. It is human nature to crave power/money. Power/money is highly intoxicating which results, sooner or later, in a distancing from facts/reality. Humans become intoxicated with increasing supplies of power/money and separated from reality. As their power/money accumulates we have boom. When reality sets in we have bust.

So what is the point of this? There is none . But the surest way to predict the future, a long popular pastime, is to study current events and history and apply a good dose of human nature.

Trump? He will eventually crash gloriously ……. I think I feel it coming close.

[Beren]

The boom and bust cycle appears in nature too and humans are naturally inclined to exploit the booms as much as they can, however, they should do it as Joseph advised Pharaoh.

Joseph Advises Pharaoh

“Pharaoh should look for a wise and intelligent man and put him in charge of Egypt. Make arrangements to appoint supervisors over the land to take a fifth of Egypt’s harvest during the seven good years. Have them collect all the food during these good years and store up grain under Pharaoh’s control, to be kept for food in the cities. This food will be a reserve supply for our country during the seven years of famine that will happen in Egypt. Then the land will not be ruined by the famine.”

[SolarCross]

It is human nature to crave power/money. Power/money is highly intoxicating which results, sooner or later, in a distancing from facts/reality. Humans become intoxicated with increasing supplies of power/money and separated from reality.

It is not just human nature but in the nature of all living beings to get more of what you need because survival depends on finding a surplus instead of a deficient, that's called winning. The more is relative to what one has now, it is not an absolute level. If you are already "rich" then only richer still is winning at life, while losing is still having less even if to someone else that still looks "rich". Human beings are not richer than other animals because of some moral deficit but because we are more ingenious problem solvers, we are just better at winning.

[Atlantis]

The problem is greed. It's political manifestation is imperialism and its economic manifestation is monopoly capitalism. Combine both and you get the US.

In Nature, growth and decay are inevitable. There is no growth without decay. But there is a state of equilibrium.

The boom and bust is just one cycle. There are other cycles like the pendulum swing from the far-right during the 30s and 40s of the last century to the far-left during the 60s and 70s, which is now swinging back to the far-right. These political pendulum swings are like a tsunami sweeping away everything they encounter. Political manifestos and ideological constructs are nothing but card houses torn to pieces by the political wave. Riding its crest or stemming its flow, you are doomed either way. You can only steady the mind to float in tranquil waters.

"History does not repeat but it rhymes." In other words, there is choice, we don't have to repeat the same mistakes ad infinitum. Peaceful coexistence in the EU has ended imperialism after centuries of war. The imperialists hate it. That goes without saying. It negates their very existence. It has also attenuated the destructive force of the pendulum by neutering the extremes and navigating the ship in the safe waters of the juste milieu.

[skinster]

[jimjam]

But the surest way to predict the future, a long popular pastime, is to study current events and history and apply a good dose of human nature.

Using this methodology, predicting the near/long term history of the human race can be done rather succinctly. Humans, with few exceptions, enjoy and seek out orgasims. I accordingly predict that world population will increase exponentially to a point where order and living conditions will deteriorate significantly to and where violence and competition for ever scarcer resources will precipitate mass wanderings of ever larger populations too and fro in search of better living conditions. This process is already well under way. The planet will become ever more defined by enclaves of haves and have nots as the influence of greed and self preservation become more prominent. The rich and powerful will stake out estates/territories that are well fortified and protected by private security forces. Personal security will become a major growth industry. As the law of the jungle and survival of the fittest become ever more prominent the planet will descend into a condition of increasing mass chaos punctuated by the survival of fewer but stronger bastions of security which could, in time, also cease to exist. Add to this a background of various "side events" such as massive pollution and environmental destruction...… also well under way today.

(N.B. world population when I was born in 1944 was 2,200,000,000. Today it is 7,700,000,000. Simple math tells us that the #'s will grow faster over shorter periods of time.)

[Potemkin]

(N.B. world population when I was born in 1944 was 2,200,000,000. Today it is 7,700,000,000. Simple math tells us that the #'s will grow faster over shorter periods of time.)

Not quite, jimjam. Population growth (with finite resources) tends to follow the logistic curve: Logistic function.

[Cookie Monster]

Not quite, jimjam. Population growth (with finite resources) tends to follow the logistic curve: Logistic function.

Exactly, while the world population is still growing its growth rate is actually decreasing.