anasawad wrote:Why does deflation bring poverty ?
It increases the purchasing power of the currency ? which is considerably good to stabilize the economy and strengthen it while expanding it through other policies and trades.
Since wages have to remain constant under a constant monetary volume, the situation is not more beneficial for wages than the fiat currency situation where wages increase faster than prices.
However with a constant volume all the economy is slowed down by deflation: actors refuse to sell at lower prices than the ones they were used to, they are less interested by investment, money sleeps without being used which causes unemployment, no one can borrow money because loans become more expensive with time, etc.
When the economy is bad, no one profits, neither riches nor poors.Now how riches and poors compare under a constant volume?
* Since borrowing is difficult, riches are the only ones with capital. They are the only ones who can invest, change the society and seize power.
* Poor people cannot buy a house now and reimburse later, they have to save money for twenty years, then buy the house.
* Riches are harmed by the mediocre economy like everyone else but they do not care so much about money itself. They care more about power and this is related to the assets they control. In a stable and mediocre economy it is easy for them to slowly concentrate more and more capital and transmit it through generations.
That being said, do Iranians put their savings in financial products, or do they keep banknotes in their mattresses? If the latter, then this is the problem you must fix. Not screw your economy to perpetuate this custom. Forget moralism regarding the financial world: it works and this is how you build a rich country. Of course it ends up derailing but this is true with all economic systems. All economic systems (and others) go through growth-sclerosis-disruption cycles.
And wealth increases as we dig out more resources and produce more goods.
First of all there may come a time where global production will constantly decrease. But even before that you would not want to index your currency on a foreign resource. And your domestic deposits will only last a few decades.
And after you tied your economy and citizens' well-being to your extraction speed, you will naturally want to extract as fast as possible, more than you need it, wasting it, causing great environmental damages, and spoiling your descendants from this resource.
And all in all the global production volume still varies rapidly and you would artificially submit your economy to those variations. If tomorrow a new deposit is closed, deflation will increase and the reimbursement of your loans will brutally increase, creating a severe crisis.
But shouldn't it be better to measure the amount of money we print based on the amount of resources and production we have and keep producing to bring more stability ?
When things go well, outside of crises, this is exactly what we do: the central bank raises its rates to slow down the printing of money to keep inflation in check.
In other words it ties the monetary growth to the economic growth.During crises however, stability would bring instability. Because agents prefer to not use their money during crises, so you need to force them to or things will go worse. At this time the central bank must increase the monetary volume, which generates activity and forces everyone to use its money to not waste it.
Fiat currencies are more difficult to handle than resource-based ones and some govts abused them. But they can potentially bring a faster growth and more stability. Because they are printed based on economic reality and needs.
And BTW, oil is barely used by us and our wealth is not based on it. Those would be the Arabs. We have other industries.
According to wikipedia, oil accounts for a fifth of your GDP, 60% of your govt's revenue, 80% of your exports. Since at this stage your growth is tied to your capacity to purchase more advanced foreign goods to accelerate your economy, it seems like it is extremely important. Let's not mention the fact that you need resources you cannot produce and that no country today can be autonomous.