[Kaiserschmarrn]

By leave I mean invoke article 50.

I've spoken to quite a few people who don't believe the UK will leave.

I disagree for the following reasons:
1) I think this would have the potential to be a political nightmare for the Tories but also Labour at the next elections.
2) Despite the fact that referenda are not legally binding, the expectation is that the government and/or parliament will implement their results. This goes for a Scottish referendum as well as for Brexit. Disregarding them will have profound effects as far as the trust in the political system is concerned.

As a side note, I think that the Brexit referendum has shown that it's difficult to use direct democracy only once in a while. It requires some cultural adaption so that people appreciate that the result is not predetermined and they have to accept it.

[Beren]

It seems to be a question getting harder to answer as time goes by.

[Atlantis]

Yes; they don't want to leave, but they'll get tangled in a net of tactical maneuvers that'll will in the end result in Braccident.

Just like the referendum result was an accident nobody expected, the negotiations will be botched to the point of no return.

The UK is likely to take a number of unilateral decisions ahead of the talks that'll preclude agreement.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

It seems to be a question getting harder to answer as time goes by.

So are you leaning towards the UK not leaving?

The UK is likely to take a number of unilateral decisions ahead of the talks that'll preclude agreement.

What unilateral decisions are you thinking of and why would they do that?

[Beren]

So are you leaning towards the UK not leaving?

I'm leaning towards they don't know what they're doing, so how the hell would I know?

[noemon]

Since I'm the only voting No, then I guess I can start taking those bets now.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I'm leaning towards they don't know what they're doing, so how the hell would I know?

It's true that a lot of people want to and are trying to challenge the result, but I have seen neither Gove nor Leadsom (the two high profile Tory leave campaigners apart from Johnson) wavering on Brexit at all. As for Boris Johnson, I have seen a lot of speculation.

Apart from the reasons I've given above, there is also the fact that the Tory membership may now be even more inclined to vote for a leave campaigner, after they are witnessing some on the remain side trying to prevent Brexit at all cost.

Anyway, I'm just interested on what basis people have doubts that Brexit will happen. I've seen some convoluted stuff out there, but nothing that I found particularly convincing.

Since I'm the only voting No, then I guess I can start taking those bets now.

It seems pretty remote to me, but I'm not going to bet money (I never do). We can come back here and see who was right of course.

[Beren]

I've seen some convoluted stuff out there, but nothing that I found particularly convincing.

You talk as if you were an objective observer. You want Britain to leave so much you opened this thread to see the majority is with you here, so it must happen.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

You talk as if you were an objective observer.

That's fair enough. I'm not. I'm still interested what speaks against the points I made above though.

You want Britain to leave so much you opened this thread to see the majority is with you here, so it must happen.

I couldn't predict how people would be voting before I made this thread. I wanted to see what people think and why, and discuss the topic, believe it or not.

[Beren]

I couldn't predict how people would be voting before I made this thread. I wanted to see what people think and why, and discuss the topic, believe it or not.

Discuss what? We've been discussing for more than a week and no one actually knows what the hell is going on. This is an opinion poll, and you want to see the majority believes Britain will leave finally.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Discuss what?

What speaks for and against the proposition that Britain will not leave in spite of the referendum result.

We've been discussing for more than a week and no one actually knows what the hell is going on.

That is quite common in politics. Some of the longest and most lively discussions I've participated in were related to the eurozone crisis, where nobody had a clue what was going to happen. There was no precedent, just like there is none for Brexit. It was a surprise and shock, just like the referendum result is.

It's not clear to me what you are actually objecting to.

This is an opinion poll,

There are not supposed to be discussions in opinion poll threads?

and you want to see the majority believes Britain will leave finally.

Could you get out of my head please?

I do want to know what people believe and ideally why. Whether this poll agrees with my position or not couldn't be more irrelevant.

[Beren]

Whether this poll agrees with my position or not couldn't be more irrelevant.

Sure, it couldn't. We've been discussing this for more than a week, while nothing actually happened, so I don't understand what more to discuss until something really happens. The UK should leave the EU now, but it's still not doing it, and even if it does, nobody knows how much they will leave actually. I don't think they can leave as much as most of the Brexiteers would want them. However, the most important thing, to me at least, is that Brexit is already considered a failure, and it's imprinting as such, although it hasn't even begun yet.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Sure, it couldn't.

Quite right, it couldn't. I was actually expecting more yes votes.

We've been discussing this for more than a week, while nothing actually happened, so I don't understand what more to discuss until something really happens. The UK should leave the EU now, but it's still not doing it, and even if it does, nobody knows how much they will leave actually. I don't think they can leave as much as most of the Brexiteers would want them. However, the most important thing, to me at least, is that Brexit is already considered a failure, and it's imprinting as such, although it hasn't even begun yet.

I haven't actually seen much discussion on this, although it's quite possible that I missed some. So far it looks like hardly anybody believes that Britain won't leave anyway.

The fact that the UK has not left yet is one of the arguments I heard. It's taken to mean that it is reluctant/not sure/doesn't want to leave. It's not clear to me why it should invoke article 50 right away. Other than to give the impression of being decisive and to really want it, I can't see much benefit from losing control over the time it has available. You know as well as I that this is going to be a monumental task, and I'm going to preempt your pointing out how little preparation there was by saying that it was impossible to be ready for the negotiations that lie ahead at the time of the referendum.

Public perception is one of the things that both sides fight over, and the remain side, with the involuntary help of Brexiters, has done a good job. On the other hand, if it's considered a failure now it may give rise to opportunities in the future. If expectations are low, then there can easily be pleasant surprises, at least if one is willing to look on the bright side.

[Godstud]

Yes. They are obligated to leave the EU now. If they were to stay in it, they'd be committing political suicide.

[layman]

Yes. Boris gave me hope but I can't see May backing down.

[Albert]

Boris gave me hope as well, until he showed himself to be the biggest pansie on planet E.

All this politicians are afraid to assume the responsibility. So what they do? Get a woman to take the brunt while they sit on the sidelines thinking they will preserve their political career. What pansises, the level of this pansines has not been seen by humanity in ages I bet, if ever.

[Atlantis]

What unilateral decisions are you thinking of and why would they do that?

For example the decision to lower corporate tax from 20 to below 15% in order to offset the negative impact of Brexit on the economy.

Cutting corporate tax to half of what other major industrial nations have is tax dumping. To obtain unilateral advantages by tax dumping is hardly compatible with being part of the common market. Since the EU isn't going to follow the UK in its race to the bottom, it'll have to have trade barriers just like we have barriers against the dumping of Chinese goods.

There'll probably be other unilateral steps by the UK, which the country will tumble into as the political situation is in a state of turmoil and decisions are being taken as a reaction to the internal turmoil without regard for long term impacts.

Yes. Boris gave me hope but I can't see May backing down.

Me too. Boris may be the only politician capable of averting Brexit. Nobody would be the least surprised if he did a U-turn with a grin on his face because people don't really believe that he means what he says anyways.

May doesn't have to back down; she first has to be nominated. The final selection will be between May and a pro-Brexit candidate. Even if May now leads by a wide margin, she may still lose if the pro-Brexit candidate unites all the pro-Brexit MPs.

I wouldn't want to live in a country governed by a character like Gove, but he's not out off the race yet. Always hope for the best and expect the worst.

You know as well as I that this is going to be a monumental task, and I'm going to preempt your pointing out how little preparation there was by saying that it was impossible to be ready for the negotiations that lie ahead at the time of the referendum.

The longer they delay, the harder it'll get to master this "monumental task." Invoking article 50 has nothing to do with defining a negotiating strategy. Article is only about the question of whether they want out or not. The clear answer is that the British don't know. They have been discussing this for decades, yet they still don't know. If they can't decide, history will decide for them. The British are losing control over their own destiny.

[redcarpet]

Polled No. Doubt it will happen. The referendum was a sham, just as the 1975 one was. I imagine something like Harold Wilson claiming to have obtained a 'new deal' for membership will happen, then the argument there's no need to leave. The polls & surveys were clear, it's not a high priority people. Not even in the top ten of issues of concern, last I recall.

[layman]

For example the decision to lower corporate tax from 20 to below 15% in order to offset the negative impact of Brexit on the economy.

Talk about a simplistic option. This reeks of desperation but then Osborne has reason to be shocked. He was hoping his legacy would be “fixing” the economy but that can’t happen now. This move also loses them a card in the exit negotiations and is probably indicative of the leadership vacuum we have right now.

May doesn't have to back down; she first has to be nominated. The final selection will be between May and a pro-Brexit candidate. Even if May now leads by a wide margin, she may still lose if the pro-Brexit candidate unites all the pro-Brexit MPs

.

I probably shouldn’t be making hard predictions right now but I am sure May will win it.

They don’t want Grove. He is not getting it. Neither do they want someone with inexperience in these times. Also, remember most tories are not pro-brexit. Even less are ‘true’ pro-brexit.

The longer they delay, the harder it'll get to master this "monumental task."

Can you explain this further? Invoking it right now would not be very prudent when there is a lame prime minister. Merkel herself implied this I think. It seems to me that a new tory leadership is the bare minimum needed. Would leaving it til Christmas really be that bad?

The polls & surveys were clear, it's not a high priority people. Not even in the top ten of issues of concern, last I recall

Correct. There was no public demand for this to happen. There are no big patriotic celebrations. It is a surreal thing.

I would estimate maybe 25-30% of the population really dont like the EU specifically. The rest are just taggin their pet cause to it.

This figure isnt really much higher than in other EU states. The difference is:

1 - we have a mainstream party with a significant anti-eu section.
2 - Much of our media uses the EU as a punching bag and has been for years - This isnt unique as they use many things as a punching bad and are generally negative and sensationalist about a lot of things.

[Beren]

Correct. There was no public demand for this to happen. There are no big patriotic celebrations. It is a surreal thing.

In this case the elite could wait and see whether the public mean to invoke Article 50. Since the referendum was not mandatory, the parliament decides. The whole thing just might die off, if the people are not that much committed to leave. Who knows how they will think in some months or even later? So it matters a lot whether May or Gove will be the PM. If it will be Gove, then Britain definitely leaves.