[Political Interest]

After Trump's election there has emerged relative instability. There are riots, protests and confrontations between different political factions.

Could the US collapse within the next four years?

[Potemkin]

Of course America will collapse; all civilisations do, eventually. But it's not going to happen any time soon. I'd say America is good for another few centuries, at least. But it's unlikely to still be around in its present form in, say, a thousand years from now. But then, what nation will be?

[Heisenberg]

I don't know whether it will "collapse" in the next four years, but I believe there is a very real chance of severe factional violence in the not-too-distant future. When you have a society as polarised as America - and where both sides are framing the political process as a winner-takes-all, life-and-death scenario - it's surely just a matter of time. One of the most worrying things about the whole "Trump phenomenon" is the almost total breakdown in civility and restraint among otherwise normal people.

[Decky]

One of the most worrying things about the whole "Trump phenomenon" is the almost total breakdown in civility and restraint among otherwise normal people.

Americans have never been normal people.

[Heisenberg]

God, what am I saying? I guess I've already been here too long.

[Rancid]

In our life times?

No.

[Beren]

Four years don't seem enough even with Trump as POTUS, but they are on the right path.

[One Degree]

No and I will be surprised if the violence escalates much beyond where it is. Everyone is too comfortable to risk their lives. They enjoy complaining about everything on both sides, but I don't think the will is there for much else. Then again, I never thought Trump would be a real Nationalist.

[Suntzu]

Americans have never been normal people.

Very true! Being an American automatically puts you in the top 10%.

[kateman]

If Trump can not save USA, USA wont last very long.

1) Population
White population was about 1/4 of the world population.
Now it is about 10%.
In the near future it will be only 7%.

2) Demographics - America, Europe, Australia, NZ
2.1) UK
In 1990, white population was 80% in London.
In 2010, white population was 60% in London.

In 1950, there were 10,000 British Pakistanis. Now there are 1.2 million British Pakistanis.

2.2) USA
Latinos have passed whites as the largest ethnic group in California in 2015.
As recently as 1970, eight out of 10 Californians were white.

The Majority of American Babies Are Now Minorities (2012) - The Census Bureau

America will a white minority country before 2050.
In 2050, white population will be less than 50% in USA.
In 2100, white population will be 1/3 in USA.

In 1950, white population was about 90% in USA.
in 2014, white population is about 60% in USA

2.3) Australia

In 1970s, white population was about 90% in Australia.
In 2011, white population was about 60% in Australia.
Demography of Australia - Wikipedia



2.4) Russia
Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese.
Peter Zeihan

2.5) Germany
Germans will be a minority in Germany by 2030.
The ongoing Third World invasion of Germany will create a nonwhite majority in the 20- to 30-year-old age group within just four years, and a nonwhite majority within one generation, a new statistical analysis based on official German census figures has shown.

Green politician Dr. v. Berg: Germans will be a minority in Germany, this is a good thing!

2.6) Canada
1870- 1970, white population was 95-98% in Canada.
In 1980, white population was 90% in Canada.
In 2010, white population was 60% in Canada..
European Canadian, - Wikipedia

In 2031, White population will be under 40% in Vancouver,
Demographics of Vancouver - Wikipedia


2.7) New Zealand
In 2006, white population was about 67% in New Zealand.
In 1961, white population was about 92% in New Zealand.
Demographics of New Zealand - Wikipedia

White faces will soon be a minority - National - NZ Herald News (2012)

2. Mixed people
America passed laws prohibiting marriage between European and Asian Americans until the 1950s.

The share of multiracial babies has risen from 1% in 1970 to 10% in 2013.

The largest multirace groups in the 2010 census were :
white and black (1.8 million).
white and some other race (1.7 million).
white and Asian (1.6 million).
white and American Indian and Alaska Native (1.4 million).

Census Was Wrong: 7 Percent of Americans Are Multiracial, Not 2 percent.
The Pew survey: "We went beyond the Census and asked people about their biological parents and grandparents."



3) Demographics, Asia
In China, 90% of the population are native Chinese.
Demographics of China - Wiki

In Japan, 98% of the population are native Japanese.
Demographics of japan - Wiki

In Korea, almost 100% of the population are native Korean. South Korea is a homogeneous society.
Demographics of South Korea - Wiki


4) GDP, Globalization



4.1) USA helped Japan just after WWII.
In 1945, the GDP of America was 50% of the world.
In 1945, the GDP of Japan was 2.5% of the world.
Then the GDP of Japan went up to just under 20% of the world (1994).
Then the GDP of American went down to just above 30% of the world.
Japan has a bigger buying power than any European country.

4.2) Now China has a bigger buying power than America.
Truman isolated China, China was very poor at that time.
In 2000, the GDP of America was 31% of the world. China was 4%.
Clinton let China to join WTO.
Then China becomes the world factory.
Now the median household income in the US is lower than 2000.

4.3) China tops US in numbers of billionaires - BBC News
(American made a different list. lol)

4.4) Asian millionaires now the wealthiest in the world - CNN News

5) Defence
Jimmy Carter said a powerful China is good for America.
Jimmy Carter said yes to export technologies and weapons to China.

Chinese leaders and generals declared a few times that China will nuke USA.
Zhu_Chenghu, Wiki

Chairman Mao said that China will win, even 2/3 of Chinese population will be nuked, since China has the biggest population.

[starman2003]

Four years don't seem enough even with Trump as POTUS, but they are on the right path.

I've long predicted there will be a collapse, not of the US itself but its democracy. The late republican Rome analogy is best IMO. The demise of the obsolete republic meant further greatness. Trump may goof in some ways and erode confidence in democracy. But I don't expect crises serious enough to topple the system in just four years. I do, however, think we could see a "preliminary jolt" severe enough to cast doubt on the system and create a constituency for basic change, maybe in under a decade.

[Stormsmith]

Democracy is fairly plastic. The US government is shrinking. The power is being consolidated to a handful of bankers, generals and family & friends who will bend the economy so far to the right, they could make Trickle Down economics look tame. On the other side, the counterforce is in rising socialism. When one side dominates too long, the other side takes over. Democracy changes, but it's unlikely to go quietly into that good night.

[Heisenberg]

I've been listening to an excellent podcast series on the downfall of the Roman Republic, and there's a small part of me that hopes the USA does end up that way. At the very least, it won't be boring.

[starman2003]

I've been listening to an excellent podcast series on the downfall of the Roman Republic, and there's a small part of me that hopes the USA does end up that way. At the very least, it won't be boring.

Considering the magnitude of the crises and transformation, it'll be anything but! Of course democracy won't go quietly, but it'll go.

[Decky]

I've been listening to an excellent podcast series on the downfall of the Roman Republic, and there's a small part of me that hopes the USA does end up that way. At the very least, it won't be boring.

What is it?

[Heisenberg]

What is it?

"Death Throes of the Republic" by Dan Carlin.

[Ter]

What is it?

Here is another podcast about te history of Rome:
http://thehistoryofrome.typepad.com/the ... me/page/2/

[AFAIK]

No, I doubt it will collapse in my lifetime.

[MistyTiger]

No collapse in four years.

American values can be eroded plenty in four years but four years is not enough time for the banking system, political system, and for the Stock Market to crash...I hope.

I do not want to see a Great Depression Part 2.

We will be seeing more chaos though.

[starman2003]

No collapse in four years.

American values can be eroded plenty in four years but four years is not enough time for the banking system, political system, and for the Stock Market to crash...I hope.

I do not want to see a Great Depression Part 2.

We will be seeing more chaos though.

I agree we won't see anything really big in four years. Still I think Trump, like shrub, will goof up enough to raise serious questions about the suitability of elected leadership in the 21st century.