- 25 Apr 2020 14:30
#15086925
The solution to 1984 is 1973!
Britain was it from the industrial revolution up until WW2 when the USA took over. The USSR was a challenger for that role but in the end failed leaving the US largely unchallenged since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
So who could be next after the US?
The EU now is emerging as a possible contender and Russia is still Russia. Then of course China has been becoming more and more powerful. India is an outside bet but still a contender because of huge manpower. The real wealth of empire is always manpower, not money, natural resources or even technology, because it is manpower that makes or takes all those things. Finally Britain as a member of the Commonwealth Realms may have another turn at it because post-brexit the way is open for the Commonwealth Realms to act together in a more co-ordinated way. The combined resources of the Commonwealth Realms is certainly comparable to any of the previously mentioned contenders.
There are three or four other potentials candidates that I think to be very unlikely but I will include anyway. Some kind of east-asian union (not communist) formed out of Japan, Korea and the other Asian Tigers. This might emerge as a result of the US pulling back out of the pacific and China pressing against that retreat. Another unlikely candidate would be an Arabic/Islamic Union/Caliphate (potential manpower 1 billion muslims). There is a massive potential there and they have done it before back in the middle ages and even up to the early modern period when you think of the Ottoman Empire) but currently infighting and shit tier industrial and technological capacity is stifling that potential. Another might be the Bolivarian dream of a united Latin America. Latin America has that potential because of a common spanish colonial heritage across a pretty huge area and enormous numbers of people, but again that potential is stifled by relative disunity and shit-tier industrial and technological capacity. Finally Africa might unite in some way. It's a big place with lots of people but otherwise the prospects are really poor.
Now pay attention! My question is NOT who do you think WILL be the next global super power but who do you WANT to be the next global superpower. This is the really interesting question because no one can read the future so there is no valid answer to "WILL" but "WANT" absolutely is answerable accurately and anyway if I asked "WILL" you would all answer as if I said "WANT" because all of you basically operate in a wishful thinking bubble anyway. Patriotic americans will say murica WILL when they really mean WANT. Commies will say China WILL when they really mean WANT. etc. It is same thing running behind the ridiculous "late capitalism" prophecy, there is no genuine prediction just wishful thinking.
Now that we are clear on the question. Let us consider that whichever team makes it as the next global superpower will be shaping the international institutions according to their own values and interests. Team America values individualism, capitalism etc and is largely built on a Christian cultural base common with europeans and latins. Team China has its own, quite different values. And so on with Islamics, Indians etc. Bear this in mind with who you are voting for.
A final point is that I include the US as an option despite the question being "next" because some people will want to vote for America to remain in this position for as long as possible and that is a valid choice for a question that is about what people "WANT".
I think the options are very comprehensive but I will put in an option "OTHER" for the sake of lightman's rule but also there may be other possibilities I have not thought of... brain-eating parasites from alpha-centuri, zombie apocaplyse or planet of the apes.. who knows what some here might want.
EDIT: Actually there is another possibility: a multi-polar world in which no particular block is dominant, so that will be included too for those that want that.
So who could be next after the US?
The EU now is emerging as a possible contender and Russia is still Russia. Then of course China has been becoming more and more powerful. India is an outside bet but still a contender because of huge manpower. The real wealth of empire is always manpower, not money, natural resources or even technology, because it is manpower that makes or takes all those things. Finally Britain as a member of the Commonwealth Realms may have another turn at it because post-brexit the way is open for the Commonwealth Realms to act together in a more co-ordinated way. The combined resources of the Commonwealth Realms is certainly comparable to any of the previously mentioned contenders.
There are three or four other potentials candidates that I think to be very unlikely but I will include anyway. Some kind of east-asian union (not communist) formed out of Japan, Korea and the other Asian Tigers. This might emerge as a result of the US pulling back out of the pacific and China pressing against that retreat. Another unlikely candidate would be an Arabic/Islamic Union/Caliphate (potential manpower 1 billion muslims). There is a massive potential there and they have done it before back in the middle ages and even up to the early modern period when you think of the Ottoman Empire) but currently infighting and shit tier industrial and technological capacity is stifling that potential. Another might be the Bolivarian dream of a united Latin America. Latin America has that potential because of a common spanish colonial heritage across a pretty huge area and enormous numbers of people, but again that potential is stifled by relative disunity and shit-tier industrial and technological capacity. Finally Africa might unite in some way. It's a big place with lots of people but otherwise the prospects are really poor.
Now pay attention! My question is NOT who do you think WILL be the next global super power but who do you WANT to be the next global superpower. This is the really interesting question because no one can read the future so there is no valid answer to "WILL" but "WANT" absolutely is answerable accurately and anyway if I asked "WILL" you would all answer as if I said "WANT" because all of you basically operate in a wishful thinking bubble anyway. Patriotic americans will say murica WILL when they really mean WANT. Commies will say China WILL when they really mean WANT. etc. It is same thing running behind the ridiculous "late capitalism" prophecy, there is no genuine prediction just wishful thinking.
Now that we are clear on the question. Let us consider that whichever team makes it as the next global superpower will be shaping the international institutions according to their own values and interests. Team America values individualism, capitalism etc and is largely built on a Christian cultural base common with europeans and latins. Team China has its own, quite different values. And so on with Islamics, Indians etc. Bear this in mind with who you are voting for.
A final point is that I include the US as an option despite the question being "next" because some people will want to vote for America to remain in this position for as long as possible and that is a valid choice for a question that is about what people "WANT".
I think the options are very comprehensive but I will put in an option "OTHER" for the sake of lightman's rule but also there may be other possibilities I have not thought of... brain-eating parasites from alpha-centuri, zombie apocaplyse or planet of the apes.. who knows what some here might want.
EDIT: Actually there is another possibility: a multi-polar world in which no particular block is dominant, so that will be included too for those that want that.
Last edited by SolarCross on 25 Apr 2020 15:25, edited 1 time in total.
The solution to 1984 is 1973!