[Donna]

Other. A multi-polar union of shared development between India, China and Africa, in order to balance the uneven growth of the West and its political exports.

[SolarCross]

Still waiting for your counterargument as to why conflict is better than cooperation in a global pandemic.

1. This thread is not about the pandemic. It is about the timeless and pervasive great game of empire.

2. We do not always get to choose to cooperate because it takes two to tango but conflicts can start unilaterally.

3. Some values are irreconcilable. "cooperation" will just be a pretense until one side has an advantage to go overt.

4. This thread is just about preferred values really.

5. The peacenik, let's all sing kumbyah by the campfire together, option is there in "multipolar" so I have not stacked the deck for conflict. Apparently you do not want a multi-polar world anyway, you want CPC to take its rightful place as the Chungkuo the middle kingdom and centre of the world, so you do not get to complain of me being a warmonger. The CPC is not going to dominate the world peacefully, that's a contradiction.

[late]

3. Some values are irreconcilable. "cooperation" will just be a pretense until one side has an advantage to go overt.

And there it is.

War.

Back in the real world, we are in the middle of a freaking plague. Even if we weren't, China and and the USA are deeply intertwined. That puts a hard limit on your fun and games.

[SolarCross]

And there it is.

War.

Back in the real world, we are in the middle of a freaking plague. Even if we weren't, China and and the USA are deeply intertwined. That puts a hard limit on your fun and games.

So what would your advice be to the US/ NATO if China makes a push on Taiwan?

[late]

So what would your advice be to the US/ NATO if China makes a push on Taiwan?

That's a great question.

Seriously, this is the sort of thing that keeps analysts up at night. The problem here is we need specifics. There's dozens of them, and they are all important.

An old fashioned invasion is wildly unlikely. But they might do a blockade, or target leaders with 'surgical' strikes.

But let's take a step back for a moment. There would be an escalation in rhetoric. This is where you really want good diplomats. Not only will they sweat every word, they will work their relationships with mainland influencers to look for an off ramp before thing get crazy.

If you go to a University library, and look at diplomatic journals, it will be like opening the book on a game where you don't know the rules, the players, the details of the history, and the details of the relationships. What the economic relationships are, and how they can be leveraged diplomatically to avoid escalation. How the situation looks for the medium and long term.

In this case, the costs after Taiwan was conquered would be quite large, China is already in economic trouble. It's soft power initiatives like Belt Road are in doubt for the same reason.

So open conflict seems quite unlikely in the short to medium term. Over the long run, China is growing and we are in decline. But that's not a problem we have to deal with today.

There is no question that China wants Taiwan, but there is a real question about how much they want Taiwan. Open aggression will negate the soft power China has been developing for decades.

[Pants-of-dog]

Captain Planet!

[Beren]

I voted multi-polar.

The EU now is emerging as a possible contender and Russia is still Russia.

They could only be a superpower together, though.

[SolarCross]

They could only be a superpower together, though.

Together they would be the mother of all super powers... but I can not see it happening. The Russians would absolutely have to be top dogs in such a union, they could not play second fiddle even to Germany. So the rest of Europe would have to subordinate themselves to Russia, or be subordinated. Economically Russia is still a basket case but militarily and in terms of territory they are far superior to anything in Europe now, and they have more imperial hubris than almost anyone else on the planet including the Americans. Russia could no more go under the heel of Brussels than the US could ever go back to being a colony of the Britain.

Like it or not a EU-Russian merger would have its capital and military HQ in Moscow. You will all have to learn Russian too.

I actually think the EU has enough manpower, industry and technology to be a super-power on its own. In which case if it wants to get bigger it would have to expand at the expense of North Africa, Turkey and the Levant, and even Russia. You should hope for a Russian collapse which would allow the EU to absorb the Ukraine.

[MistyTiger]

China with the assumption that they would spread their wealth to the US and other struggling countries. They at least know how to handle their purse strings and military. The US has gotten sloppy. I have met too many idiots in school and in the workplace.

[Beren]

The Russians would absolutely have to be top dogs in such a union, they could not play second fiddle even to Germany.

They should not play second fiddle to Germany because there'll be a kind of Eurocore union within the EU when the process begins, a Frankish Union if you like, consisting of Germany, France, the Benelux, and Austria perhaps, being bigger than Japan and dominating the EU in general, with which the Russians would be more than happy to be equals in a common framework. In my opinion such a union already exists actually, although it's not yet institutionalised.

[SolarCross]

They should not play second fiddle to Germany because there'll be a kind of Eurocore union within the EU when the process begins, a Frankish Union if you like, consisting of Germany, France, the Benelux, and Austria perhaps, being bigger than Japan and dominating the EU in general, with which the Russians would be more than happy to be equals in a common framework. In my opinion such a union already exists actually, although it's not yet institutionalised.

Okay well you may be right. I guess we will have to see what happens. Such a merger would certainly put the frighteners on everyone else on the planet and the US will certainly be knocked off top spot.

How would that work with NATO by the way? Would Russia join or the EU leave?

[Beren]

How would that work with NATO by the way? Would Russia join or the EU leave?

It would be disbanded somehow. With Trump and Brexit there seems to be a split between the Anglos and Europe anyway and I'd consider that the long-term general trend too. The Anglos are giving up Europe and letting it go because they don't sense existential threats from there, especially if Western Europe pacifies Russia, while they're going to focus on the Pacific and South America.

[SolarCross]

It would be disbanded somehow. With Trump and Brexit there seems to be a split between the Anglos and Europe anyway and I'd consider that the long-term general trend too. The Anglos are giving up Europe and letting it go because they don't sense existential threats from there, especially if Western Europe pacifies Russia, while they're going to focus on the Pacific and South America.

Well I think NATO will continue even if the EU leaves. In fact a Russian-Europe behemoth would basically guarantee NATO continues, a Russian-Euro pact would be vastly more threatening than the Warsaw Pact ever could be. If the Russian imperial engine gets an influx of European economic power then the whole of East Asia, possibly even including China but certainly including Japan will be queuing up to join NATO in the EU's place. There will be a new cold war no doubt.

---------

EDIT In fact all the middle east will want to join too. Russia is a big threat for them.

[Beren]

Well I think NATO will continue even if the EU leaves. In fact a Russian-Europe behemoth would basically guarantee it continues, it would be vastly more threatening than the Warsaw Pact ever could be. If the Russian imperial engine gets an influx of European economic power then the whole of East Asia, possibly even including China but certainly including Japan will be queuing up to join NATO in the EU's place. There will be a new cold war no doubt.

It won't be NATO anymore and the Anglos wouldn't see EU-Russia as their primary enemy or rival, it's undoubtedly China, they would rather be neutral or even cooperative with them. Instead of maintaining NATO they'll rather focus on containing China and securing their backyard in Latin America.

[SolarCross]

It won't be NATO anymore and the Anglos wouldn't see EU-Russia as their primary enemy or rival, it's undoubtedly China, they would rather be neutral or even cooperative with them. Instead of maintaining NATO they'll rather focus on containing China and securing their backyard in Latin America.

Well it might have different members and a different name but it would still be NATO essentially, US + CANZUK + others.

It could work out that the Neo-NATO and the newly expanded Russian Empire would agree not to step on each others toes but.. I would not count on it. Competition would be inevitable. Suez, LEO, the middle east, the far east, so many potential flash points along a border that encircles the globe.

[Beren]

Well it might have different members and a different name but it would still be NATO essentially, US + CANZUK + others.

It could work out that the Neo-NATO and the newly expanded Russian Empire would agree not to step on each others toes but.. I would not count on it. Competition would be inevitable. Suez, LEO, the middle east, the far east, so many potential flash points along a border that encircles the globe.

NATO is North Atlantic and it's the North Atlantic alliance that is about to cease to exist or change dramatically. It wouldn't be an expanded Russian Empire, by the way, it would rather be a fairly balanced alliance between Western Europe and Russia instead. Many Russians would be afraid of being colonised by the West, I guess.

[late]

Right now Russia is reeling from a double tap. They depend on oil revenue (that's why the Soviet Union collapsed, a drop in oil prices) and oil is way down.

They are also getting hit by the corona virus, and that's going to hurt. Their health care system is pretty limited.

Putin, even more than the rest of Russia, depends on foreign money from oil and gas sales.

So Putin's in a piss poor mood.

Remember that nuke explosion in Russia recently? He's trying to build a superfast nuclear powered nuclear missile. You think maybe they've forgotten that in Europe? I sure as hell wouldn't. Nothing says evil intent like a missile that could incinerate you faster than your barista can make you a cappucino. Well, almost faster.

Putin has pissed in the pool. Repeatedly.

The old order is broken. What happens next depends on a lot of things, but if we get a sane president, we could repair at least some of the damage.

There won't be an EU/Russia marriage.

But I would bet the EU will need some serious wooing before they get back in bed with us.

Having said all that, there are a lot of things in motion, with plenty of chances for things to go bump in the night, and a lot of those potential collisions would be things we wouldn't like.

[SolarCross]

NATO is North Atlantic and it's the North Atlantic alliance that is about to cease to exist or change dramatically. It wouldn't be an expanded Russian Empire, by the way, it would rather be a fairly balanced alliance between Western Europe and Russia instead. Many Russians would rather be afraid of being colonised by the West, I guess.

The US, Canada and UK are all North Atlantic counties and they would still be the core of NATO unless there was a huge intake from some other part of the world like the Far East. Even so, it will just be a name change and membership shuffle. Turkey is a member of NATO too but they are nowhere near the North Atlantic. What is in a name anyway? Come to think of it where does Turkey sit in this great scheme? Russia and Turkey are natural rivals because of the Black Sea and the Straights of Bosporus. So also is Greece and Turkey. If Greece stays in the EU but leaves NATO then the Greece / Turkey border becomes an even more risky flashpoint.

[Beren]

The old order is broken. What happens next depends on a lot of things, but if we get a sane president, we could repair at least some of the damage.

There won't be an EU/Russia marriage.

But I would bet the EU will need some serious wooing before they get back in bed with us.

That's a great analogy because marriage is only possible between the EU and Russia, while we can only be your bitches. Some of the damage can be repaired indeed, we still can be friends, darling.

The US, Canada and UK are all North Atlantic counties and they would still be the core of NATO unless there was a huge intake from some other part of the world like the Far East. Even so, it will just be a name change and membership shuffle. Turkey is a member of NATO too but they are nowhere near the North Atlantic. What is in a name anyway? Come to think of it where does Turkey sit in this great scheme? Russia and Turkey are natural rivals because of the Black Sea and the Straights of Bosporus. So also is Greece and Turkey. If Greece stays in the EU but leaves NATO then the Greece / Turkey border becomes an even more risky flashpoint.

The US, Canada, and UK are Anglos rather than North Atlantic, I don't mean geography here. The North Atlantic alliance basically means the alliance between the Anglos and Western Europe, although there are other members too. If this alliance is over, NATO is over too.

[SolarCross]

The US, Canada, and UK are Anglos rather than North Atlantic, I don't mean geography here. The North Atlantic alliance basically means the alliance between the Anglos and Western Europe, although there are other members too. If this alliance is over, NATO is over too.

Yet the alliance will remain in existence while at least some members remain in it. I guess CANZUK will remain in at least, likely Turkey too. The alliance will continue and probably even keep its name if only because no one can think of a better one. No one thought the name should change just because the French had a tantrum and left for the weekend under De Gaulle. I expect we could lose the French again without needing a name change.