The vaccine market has grown sixfold over the past two decades, worth more than $35 billion today, according to AB Bernstein.
The firm said the industry has consolidated to four big players that account for about 85% of the market — British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline, French pharmaceutical company Sanofi, and U.S.-based Merck and Pfizer.
“For every dollar invested in vaccination in the world’s 94 lowest-income countries, the net return is $44. Hard to argue against,” Wimal Kapadia, Bernstein’s analyst, said in a note. “This oligopoly has been built through significant market consolidation driven primarily by the complexities of the manufacturing and supply chain.”
The Bernstein analyst said Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline both have a stable vaccine portfolio, including shingles, flu, pertussis and polio vaccines, that will keep driving revenue.
Merck’s vaccine business generated $8.4 billion of revenues in 2019, the segment has been growing at an annual rate of 9% since 2010, according to Bernstein.
Its human papillomavirus vaccine Gardasil 9 will be “the biggest selling vaccine of all time,” Kapadia said. “Gardasil 9 will take over the HPV market given competition is limited - supply is the only decelerator.”
For Pfizer, while its vaccine business has stagnated in recent years, its pipeline has “blockbuster potential,” the analyst noted.
“Vaccines are long-lived assets, have high barriers to entry, typically stable/growing pricing, mostly limited competition and no patent cliff,” Kapadia said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronav ... arket.html