[Local Localist]

A poll to see what people's predictions are about the 2020 US election, and what they think about those predictions. I'd be interested to hear why people chose whatever response they did, as well.

[B0ycey]

As things stand, is there even a route for a Trump victory?

With a disaster of a presidency, he is also on the back foot in the debates. Only the diehards and the pessimists expect a Trump victory.

[blackjack21]

I think the Republicans are likely to win, but I'm sort of ambivalent about it. Trump has a far more energized base than Biden. The Democrats are much more fractured than they appear to be. Protesters harassing people in restaurants etc. is very bad news for the Democrats. Democrat states keeping small businesses shut down is very bad news for the Democrats. Keeping schools shut down deliberately until after the election is very bad news for the Democrats. The riots are very bad news for the Democrats. The Democrat cities cutting police funding as crime skyrockets is very bad news for the Democrats.

Kevin McCarthy has a "take back the house" initiative, but as far as I know, he hasn't come up with something like Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America."

What's also likely to happen is that the Democrats will become more leftist and extreme. AOC has become the face of the Democrats, as their elderly leadership--Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer--watch on in horror.

Interesting times.

[Tainari88]

I think the Republicans are likely to win, but I'm sort of ambivalent about it. Trump has a far more energized base than Biden. The Democrats are much more fractured than they appear to be. Protesters harassing people in restaurants etc. is very bad news for the Democrats. Democrat states keeping small businesses shut down is very bad news for the Democrats. Keeping schools shut down deliberately until after the election is very bad news for the Democrats. The riots are very bad news for the Democrats. The Democrat cities cutting police funding as crime skyrockets is very bad news for the Democrats.

Kevin McCarthy has a "take back the house" initiative, but as far as I know, he hasn't come up with something like Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America."

What's also likely to happen is that the Democrats will become more leftist and extreme. AOC has become the face of the Democrats, as their elderly leadership--Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer--watch on in horror.

Interesting times.

According to the analytical dude who is never wrong about presidential elections Biden will win by a very slim margin and Trump will not leave quietly into the night. I am not confident at all that it will be an easy win for Biden.

Here is why Biden will win.

[skinster]

Between the neoliberals and neofascists, I'm guessing the latter will win again. I don't think the former want to win either since they put a dementia patient and cop up for sale, but who knows.

Still, it's not like there's any good option anyway since presidents in America are just puppets for an awful system that controls/owns both parties.

Related,

[blackjack21]

According to the analytical dude who is never wrong about presidential elections Biden will win by a very slim margin and Trump will not leave quietly into the night. I am not confident at all that it will be an easy win for Biden.

He called it for Gore. Gore won the popular vote, but not the electoral college. We've seen that twice in 20 years now.

Another important metric is turnout for the candidates in the primaries. Trump had record turnout, even though he was unchallenged. That suggests strong enthusiasm for him. Trump’s primary vote totals trounce previous incumbents’ numbers

Biden, by contrast, came in 4th in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, and 2nd in Nevada. Then, he started winning when people who were leading him in delegates inexplicably dropped out of the race, leaving him the only candidate. There's just not much enthusiasm for Biden. Practically speaking, Biden isn't campaigning much at all.

[annatar1914]

Between the neoliberals and neofascists, I'm guessing the latter will win again. I don't think the former want to win either since they put a dementia patient and cop up for sale, but who knows.

Still, it's not like there's any good option anyway since presidents in America are just puppets for an awful system that controls/owns both parties.

Related,

The irony of that twitter post (actually among several) is the utter insanity of the ''Trump as Russian Agent'' conspiracy theory, in that Venezuela is mentioned as being undermined by Trump... When Venezuela is a close economic partner of the Russian Federation. Why would Russia have their alleged ''man in Washington'' try to overthrow their ally in South America?

Liberal insanity has almost hit the singularity point.

[Crantag]

As things stand, is there even a route for a Trump victory?

With a disaster of a presidency, he is also on the back foot in the debates. Only the diehards and the pessimists expect a Trump victory.

There very much is. The US Electoral college system was a Faustian bargain and you only need to swing a couple states, especially Florida. Florida will go to Trump, I expect, through massive election fraud and voter suppression. Then they only need to rig a couple more states. There is also the issue that Americans are stupider than retarded goats. Just look at the Trump cultists, like BJ giver, on this forum.

[Crantag]

Nothing wrong with BJs by the way and everyone should have one. I'm expecting an epic shitshow.

[Rancid]

I voted Republicans will win, I'm not happy about it. In fairness, I wouldn't be happy with Democrats winning either.

The irony of that twitter post (actually among several) is the utter insanity of the ''Trump as Russian Agent'' conspiracy theory, in that Venezuela is mentioned as being undermined by Trump... When Venezuela is a close economic partner of the Russian Federation. Why would Russia have their alleged ''man in Washington'' try to overthrow their ally in South America?

The big problem with a lot of people on this planet, and some on this forum (as you've shown). Is inconsistency. I often find myself saying "I don't need you to agree with me, I just need you to be consistent." Those that I disagree with, but are logically consistent, I can respect. Those that are a hot mess and all over the place, are basically dummies and a total bore to have a real conversation with.

[B0ycey]

The US Electoral college system was a Faustian bargain and you only need to swing a couple states, especially Florida. Florida will go to Trump,

I will be surprised if Trump wins Florida, but for any chance of reelection he needs it in any case.

There is a lot of posturing on PoFo for a Trump victory on both sides, so at least it will get Democrats out voting if they are as pessimistic as they seem to be on here. But from what I am seeing with the polls this is Bidens to lose. I cannot see Trump winning even with how the electoral college works because he is behind in most of the key states. But I am over the other side of the Atlantic and if I was American, I perhaps would be wary too especially with what happened last time.

[Crantag]

I will be surprised if Trump wins Florida, but for any chance of reelection he needs it in any case.

There is a lot of posturing on PoFo for a Trump victory on both sides, so at least it will get Democrats out voting if they are as pessimistic as they seem to be on here. But from what I am seeing with the polls this is Bidens to lose. I cannot see Trump winning even with how the electoral college works because he is behind in most of the key states. But I am over the other side of the Atlantic and if I was American, I perhaps would be wary too especially with what happened last time.

Florida is a cool place and also a fucked up place. I worked there for a bit on hurricaine recovery 3 years ago. They will rig it. I fear. Unfortunately voter suppression and election fraud are a part of the equation. Just look at recent history, like the epic shit show of 2000. I genuinely hope I'm wrong. I haven't been wrong yet. I predicted Trump winning, or 'winning', whether you prefer the scare quotes or not.

[late]

You start with Penn.

Trump narrowly won Penn in 2016, but his support is softer now, and Biden is a native son. Also people like Biden.

This means Trump has to replace those votes somewhere else, and I just don't see that happening. He's underwater in other states he won before.

Only way Trump can win is cheating, which is why he's saying that's the only way Dems can win. He plans on getting nasty after the election. I expect his paramilitary will be part of it.

I'm quite serious about that, you guys should have been paying attention to Marsha Gessen. I've posted about her a couple times, she's an expert on how dictators get into power.

The Integrity Project gamed this out, and the only result that didn't end in violence was a Biden landslide. I don't see that happening. It could happen, voters are hard to predict.

I think he will get a solid win, over 300, but that means we won't get a definitive result on election night or the next day. Which will give Trump time to move.

[Wellsy]

According to the analytical dude who is never wrong about presidential elections Biden will win by a very slim margin and Trump will not leave quietly into the night. I am not confident at all that it will be an easy win for Biden.

Here is why Biden will win.

Isn’t a limitation of that guys model is that it predicts the popular vote and was in a sense wrong when the electoral college prevailed over the popular vote. Makes one concerned that if hes predicting Biden on the popular vote by a small margin it may well be a prediction for a repeat of the last election.

[Rugoz]

Only way Trump can win is cheating, which is why he's saying that's the only way Dems can win. He plans on getting nasty after the election. I expect his paramilitary will be part of it.

What paramilitary? I know Trump is trying every trick from the aspiring dictator's playbook, but he's nowhere near the level where he could pull of a successful coup.

[Robert Urbanek]

The question is too vague and general. Likely to win what? The White House? The Senate? The House of Representatives? State Legislatures? Governorships?

[Tainari88]

Isn’t a limitation of that guys model is that it predicts the popular vote and was in a sense wrong when the electoral college prevailed over the popular vote. Makes one concerned that if hes predicting Biden on the popular vote by a small margin it may well be a prediction for a repeat of the last election.

The contrast between Trump and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is extreme. AMLO is raffling off the Mexican presidential plane worth an estimated $285 Million US dollars and he is investing in COVID19 medical equipment and medical treatments and other more valuable things to invest in than a fancy ego trip plane. He called it the 'neoliberal' presidential plane. Trump loves firing up Air Force One and going golfing. The value system is on full display Wellsy.

AMLO and the raffle.

[B0ycey]

Isn’t a limitation of that guys model is that it predicts the popular vote and was in a sense wrong when the electoral college prevailed over the popular vote. Makes one concerned that if hes predicting Biden on the popular vote by a small margin it may well be a prediction for a repeat of the last election.

Social media is full of "so called" experts. Sometimes you just need to look at the data and make an informed opinion from that.

Currently by looking at the popular vote metric, Trump is well and truly fucked.

I prefer to look at polls of individual key states where he is pretty much fucked. But in many ways complacency can contribute to your own downfall so if people think this is close, it can only strengthen the front runners hand as people will definitely go out and vote.

[skinster]

The irony of that twitter post (actually among several) is the utter insanity of the ''Trump as Russian Agent'' conspiracy theory, in that Venezuela is mentioned as being undermined by Trump... When Venezuela is a close economic partner of the Russian Federation. Why would Russia have their alleged ''man in Washington'' try to overthrow their ally in South America?

Liberal insanity has almost hit the singularity point.

Stop with the logic!

The Russiagate conspiracy theory created by the Clinton team and DNC as a distraction to their loss of the last election really broke the brains of liberals. Had these people look into the aggressive actions against Russia from the U.S. and NATO throughout, they'd see that Trump-and-Putin-are-besties bullshit for what it is. But they'd rather stay living in the fantasy because it's easy, it means they get to keep pointing fingers at that guy - as if he's anything more than another puppet - instead of looking at themselves or at least the rotten system they live under.

But as Russiagate is the conspiracy theory for the rightwing Democrats in the U.S., we now have the QAnon conspiracy theories for the neofashy Republicans. Democrats will blame Russia if/when they lose. Republicans will blame China if/when they lose. Both will claim the other cheated. None will realize the same puppetmaster is holding both Biden and Trump. The only choice in U.S. elections is for the oligarchy or plutocracy or whatever you want to call it.

tl;dr - America is fucked.

[late]

What paramilitary? I know Trump is trying every trick from the aspiring dictator's playbook, but he's nowhere near the level where he could pull of a successful coup.

It's straight out of the dictators manual. Militarise the border, get them used to playing rough, and then use them on their own people.

Didn't you see them in the news in places like Portland?

He doesn't need a coup, he's already there. All he has to do is thwart law and tradition, which he has done dozens of times before.