Johns Hopkins Study: Lockdowns more Detrimental than Beneficial - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15210208
https://www.bladenjournal.com/news/4...than-a-benefit

Information published on a study by researchers at the renowned Johns Hopkins University indicates global lockdowns have been much more detrimental to society than a benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers concluded they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

The news came on a week when Bladen County’s positive test total, bolstered by the less virulent omicron variant, ended January with 11 fatalities and 2,684 positive tests recorded.

Since the pandemic began, the county has recorded 109 deaths and 8,780 positive tests — 134 positive tests just from Tuesday and Wednesday. In a report Wednesday from the Bladen County Health Department, the county had 14 people hospitalized and what it deemed 302 active cases. There have been 8,369 recoveries since the pandemic began.

Statewide on Wednesday, there were 4,725 hospitalized; and since the pandemic began, there have been 20,904 deaths and 2,442,891 positive tests.

The original strain of COVID-19 was being detected when the first peak month in the pandemic, January of last year, had 765 positive tests. The delta variant of COVID-19 was being detected when Bladen County recorded 964 positive tests in August. Omicron variant, the least virulent of these three strains, is now being detected.

The study out early this week was authored by Jonas Herby, special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark; Lars Jonung, professor emeritus in economics at Lund University, Sweden; and Steve H. Hanke, a professor of Applied Economics and the founder and co-director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

The researchers defined lockdowns as restriction on “peoples’ possibilities” that included “policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel.” They further said, “To answer our question, we focused on studies that examine the actual impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality rates based on registered cross-sectional mortality data and a counterfactual difference in-difference approach.”

The answer, in simplest terms, was “no.”

They wrote, “Lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.” Also, with regard to shelter in place orders, the study said they “were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average,” further noting “Specific non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.”


I'm hearing and looking for it, and can't find it, our St. Johns Hospital here in Santa Monica reported this too.

Our city is so destroyed from all the lockdowns. So many stores have closed.

So much damage and destruction from our government.
#15210216
jaminhealth wrote:https://www.bladenjournal.com/news/4...than-a-benefit

Information published on a study by researchers at the renowned Johns Hopkins University indicates global lockdowns have been much more detrimental to society than a benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers concluded they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

The news came on a week when Bladen County’s positive test total, bolstered by the less virulent omicron variant, ended January with 11 fatalities and 2,684 positive tests recorded.

Since the pandemic began, the county has recorded 109 deaths and 8,780 positive tests — 134 positive tests just from Tuesday and Wednesday. In a report Wednesday from the Bladen County Health Department, the county had 14 people hospitalized and what it deemed 302 active cases. There have been 8,369 recoveries since the pandemic began.

Statewide on Wednesday, there were 4,725 hospitalized; and since the pandemic began, there have been 20,904 deaths and 2,442,891 positive tests.

The original strain of COVID-19 was being detected when the first peak month in the pandemic, January of last year, had 765 positive tests. The delta variant of COVID-19 was being detected when Bladen County recorded 964 positive tests in August. Omicron variant, the least virulent of these three strains, is now being detected.

The study out early this week was authored by Jonas Herby, special advisor at Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen, Denmark; Lars Jonung, professor emeritus in economics at Lund University, Sweden; and Steve H. Hanke, a professor of Applied Economics and the founder and co-director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

The researchers defined lockdowns as restriction on “peoples’ possibilities” that included “policies that limit internal movement, close schools and businesses, and ban international travel.” They further said, “To answer our question, we focused on studies that examine the actual impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality rates based on registered cross-sectional mortality data and a counterfactual difference in-difference approach.”

The answer, in simplest terms, was “no.”

They wrote, “Lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.” Also, with regard to shelter in place orders, the study said they “were also ineffective, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average,” further noting “Specific non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) studies also find no broad-based evidence of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.”


I'm hearing and looking for it, and can't find it, our St. Johns Hospital here in Santa Monica reported this too.

Our city is so destroyed from all the lockdowns. So many stores have closed.

So much damage and destruction from our government.



Economics is not science.
#15210424
The study was done by 3 right wing kooks that were economists.

These clowns had no training in epidemiology...

"A theme taken up by all the critics in the Science Media Centre post was that the Johns Hopkins meta-analysis failed to account for instances in which a lockdown may have arrested the growth rate of deaths, if not the raw number of deaths themselves. “Many countries locked down before seeing exponential growth and therefore saw no reduction in deaths,” wrote Samir Bhatt, an Imperial College London statistician who was directly involved with the COVID-19 response in New York State.

A report in Forbes wrote that all three authors of the Johns Hopkins paper are definitively of the “free market” bent. Herby works for the libertarian-leaning Center for Political Studies in Copenhagen.

https://nationalpost.com/health/johns-hopkins-study-finding-lockdowns-do-little-to-prevent-covid-deaths-flawed-critics-say
#15211445
"Dr. Varma is an epidemiologist focused on large-scale responses to infectious diseases.

Policymakers need to be humble about what we don’t know, especially with Covid-19.

The first Covid-19 strategy document I wrote, in April 2020, for Bill de Blasio when he was New York’s mayor had multiple pages devoted to metrics for when to relax or tighten restrictions — such as mask mandates — for offices, restaurants, sporting events and more.

But I’m just as perplexed now as I was almost two years ago about the best metrics to use to monitor the pandemic and how to use them to trigger actions that slow the spread.

It has become clear to me that decisions about restrictions cannot be solely determined by any single metric or combination of them.

Decision makers continue to face similar challenges. Consider the question of when schools can stop requiring children to wear masks. Ideally, government or school officials would base this decision on how much Covid transmission is occurring inside schools. When there’s very little transmission, masks can come off. When transmission rises, masks go back on.

But this is incredibly difficult to measure. We do not yet have accurate, widely available technology to measure how much virus is in the air.

In most situations, however, elected officials need to operate in the far grayer area of interventions narrowly tailored to specific settings, like schools, nursing homes and jails. For each setting, officials need to consider whether the people in those places are vaccinated or are medically vulnerable, whether the building has optimized ventilation and whether there are high-quality masks and rapid tests available to all who want them — similar to the expectation that a building has abundant soap, water and paper towels for hand hygiene.

They also need to use their best judgment to estimate the level of public outrage if outbreaks occur in these settings — and balance that against continued dissatisfaction with mitigation measures. And then it’s up to all of us to hold these leaders accountable at the ballot box."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/opinion/when-do-masks-come-off-the-hard-truth-about-lifting-covid-restrictions.html
#15211596
Pants-of-dog wrote:At this point, lockdowns are obsolete.

Vaccination, increased ICU capacity, better ventilation, and mask use by anyone with symptoms seem to make more of a difference.


I only 100% agree with the final two.

Vaccination is something governments have to do but many including my family have personal reservation.

Omicron means ICU could be an overkill, but that's something we can gradually loose afterwards.

On the other hand, Hong Kong government weaponizes lockdown to force the most defiant kind of people to give in and vaccine, so don't think lockdown is mutually exclusive with the other measures.
#15211626
late wrote:
"Dr. Varma is an epidemiologist focused on large-scale responses to infectious diseases.

Policymakers need to be humble about what we don’t know, especially with Covid-19.

The first Covid-19 strategy document I wrote, in April 2020, for Bill de Blasio when he was New York’s mayor had multiple pages devoted to metrics for when to relax or tighten restrictions — such as mask mandates — for offices, restaurants, sporting events and more.

But I’m just as perplexed now as I was almost two years ago about the best metrics to use to monitor the pandemic and how to use them to trigger actions that slow the spread.

It has become clear to me that decisions about restrictions cannot be solely determined by any single metric or combination of them.

Decision makers continue to face similar challenges. Consider the question of when schools can stop requiring children to wear masks. Ideally, government or school officials would base this decision on how much Covid transmission is occurring inside schools. When there’s very little transmission, masks can come off. When transmission rises, masks go back on.

But this is incredibly difficult to measure. We do not yet have accurate, widely available technology to measure how much virus is in the air.

In most situations, however, elected officials need to operate in the far grayer area of interventions narrowly tailored to specific settings, like schools, nursing homes and jails. For each setting, officials need to consider whether the people in those places are vaccinated or are medically vulnerable, whether the building has optimized ventilation and whether there are high-quality masks and rapid tests available to all who want them — similar to the expectation that a building has abundant soap, water and paper towels for hand hygiene.

They also need to use their best judgment to estimate the level of public outrage if outbreaks occur in these settings — and balance that against continued dissatisfaction with mitigation measures. And then it’s up to all of us to hold these leaders accountable at the ballot box."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/opinion/when-do-masks-come-off-the-hard-truth-about-lifting-covid-restrictions.html



And yet the internet 'experts' blather on...
#15212507
Rancid wrote:
Dr Varma is basically saying "we still don't know what is the best way to slow/stop the spread of covid"... all good.

let her rip then.



Yes

Prob no. Portland is dropping the mask mandate manana... But it's obvious the mad dash is motivated by emotional reasons. I hope we don't pay a steep price.

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