[Politics_Observer]

So, I was wondering what PoFoers think the outcome of the Russian-Ukraine war will be. Bear in mind that Russia could possibly do the unthinkable and use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons to prevent outright defeat in Ukraine and possibly achieve its objectives.

[Patrickov]

WW3 of course, but if things as reported by the media is true then China, Iran and NK would probably be entering the war out of desperation rather than looting and destruction of whoever they hate.

[Rancid]

WW3 of course, but if things as reported by the media is true then China, Iran and NK would probably be entering the war out of desperation rather than looting and destruction of whoever they hate.

If they stay within their borders during this conflict (especially if China leaves Taiwan alone), and do not provide significant support for the belligerents, theses nations would likely be spared.

[JohnRawls]

I voted the wrong thing because I didn't see the answer that I wanted. I voted other but technically Yes, Ukraine wins and takes back land is there.

Reasoning:
1) Putin doesn't live in reality so does not understand that he is loosing and the more it goes on the more damaged his army and economy becomes
2) This means that he is incapable of sighning a peace treaty right now between Ukraine and Russia.
3) Ukraine will probably introduce a semi peace treaty that will acknowledge Crimea and Donbas in expense for Russia fucking off and minding its own business. This is a ruse to buy time and boggle down Russia since this peace treaty will fail on a referendum.
4) Over time Russian army will collapse due to absence of reserves, logistics and bad planning.
5) Once the Russian army collapses and starts getting overrun then Ukraine forcefully takes back Donbass.
6) Crimea is uncertain because well it is more complicated there and the Russian Navy will always be a problem for supply in Crimea and taking it back.


Additional important factors:
1) AA shipments for more heavier units like S-300 from Europe or S-400 from Turkey might severely change the tide.
2) MIG shipments from Poland also will make a huge difference.
3) Russian forces might commit reservists more if this drags on but it will only slow down the Ukranian advance since the reservists don't really have Armor, APCs and so on nor are they trained to use them or artilery and so on. Basically this might be death for Vlad The War Criminal and collapse of his regime will end the war with full Russian capitulation.

[Politics_Observer]

My vote was " The war will be a Ukrainian victory but Ukraine will still lose some territory." I don't think Russia will achieve a victory here, but there is a good chance they will lose some territory. Of course, you never know, Ukraine might take all territory back including the territory that Russia stole from them in 2014.

[Political Interest]

The war will be a stalemate between Ukraine and Russia with no clear winner.

It will be a stalemate. The longer hostilites continue the more both sides will be willing to negotiate and concede more. It's clear that both are more willing to compromise than they were at the start of the conflict.

The war will be a protracted war that will require negotiations and a long term settlement in order to end it.

The worse case scenario is if there is no possibiity of any sort of compromise. That could result in WW3.

In any case this war is a disaster for both Ukraine and Russia, and a disaster for Europe.

[Skynet]

The Ukrainians will beat the Russians... I think Putin will use ABC-Weapons to avoid a defeat.


Before he might use FOAB... but many experts doubt it is stronger then the MOAB.

[Rancid]

It's clear that both are more willing to compromise than they were at the start of the conflict.

Ukraine hasn't shifted away from security guarantees. THis is a non-starter for Russia, it would undermine the whole point of him going to war.

In otherwords, the negotiations are for show on both sides. Russia will fight until the bitter end, so will Ukraine.

[Igor Antunov]

Russia will chip away at the borderlands until there is nothing significant left. Anything else is delusion. The west will seethe and cope for decades to come.

[Skynet]

Medwedew's last speach was like a call for mass mobilisation against Ukraine.

It is an epic battle two close nation oposing ideologies Autocracy vs. Democracy.

[Politics_Observer]

@Sandzak @Igor Antunov

I don't know, if Congress passes the Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine, that could turn the tide of the war against Russia and Ukraine might be able to take back all of Ukraine from the Russians, including the land that Russia stole from Ukraine in 2014. Here is a link to the act that the U.S. Congress might pass. Things haven't turned out the way you have predicted just prior to the invasion @Igor Antunov .

https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BILLS-117s3522es

[Igor Antunov]

@Sandzak @Igor Antunov

I don't know, if Congress passes the Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine, that could turn the tide of the war against Russia and Ukraine might be able to take back all of Ukraine from the Russians, including the land that Russia stole from Ukraine in 2014. Here is a link to the act that the U.S. Congress might pass. Things haven't turned out the way you have predicted just prior to the invasion @Igor Antunov .

https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BILLS-117s3522es

Positively delusional. It hasn't even been 50 days. Lend lease is a meme.

Joint Russian-DPR troops have entered the port of Mariupol
Russian MoD: Tochka-U tactical missile (not used by Russia) which hit Kramatorsk was fired by Ukrainian forces in Dobropole - accuses Ukraine of deliberately targeting evacuating civilians to keep them as human shields
Russian MoD: over 3,500 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed in the last 30 days, 5,904 since Feb 24th
Russian central bank cuts interest rate saying financial stability risk contained
According to American estimates, Russia has launched 1300 missiles at Ukraine
Russian marines save 100 people held hostage by Azov in Mariupol hospital
Ukraine begins the 3rd wave of conscription. All reservists who were not conscripted in the preceding two waves will be mobilized to fight
Russia has captured Snigurevka (near Nikolaev), Dolgenkoye (south of Izyum), Rozovka and Pologi (Zaporozhie)
Accepted to pay in rubles so far: Moldova, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia
RWA reports that all Ukrainian fortifications in Luhansk oblast have been overrun https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1511666028459302920

I don't have time to post videos and pics for now, (i can post about 300 covering the points above alone) but one final addition, the USD is buying 70 rubles, fewer than before the invasion; talk in economic circles is that the ruble will appreciate to 30 rubles on the dollar. A dramatic rise as Russia's exports vs its imports are at a record high, at the same time that there is record demand for rubles globally, and while there is a flood of freshly printed Euros and USD's relative to rubles on the market. In short the Russian state will be awash with liquid capital this year and the means to utilize it directly with the top manufacturing power - aka China further driving up the demand for Yuan and appreciating that currency also. It's a match made in heaven.

[Politics_Observer]

@Igor Antunov

Well given that the EU feels safe enough to resume their diplomatic presence in Kyiv after the military defeat of Russian forces there, I guess that means, the U.S. sending money to Ukraine isn't investing in Russia as you initially thought it would be but instead, Ukraine . It's so nice of the U.S. to be investing in Ukraine .

[Igor Antunov]

A fool and his money is quickly parted. The west is the ultimate money fool. Trillions wasted and counting in just 20 years. Ukraine will be no exception. Whatever EU invests in Ukraine can simply be taken by Russia later.

[Wels]

"WHAT WILL THE OUTCOME OF THE UKRAINE RUSSIAN WAR BE?"
Putin's death, at least.

[Igor Antunov]

The outcome will be that Russia will grow larger, and then invade another fledgling western puppet idiot then return to finish Ukraine if it doesn't finish it this time.

Either way Russia will keep growing larger.

[annatar1914]

Despite anyone's feelings at the moment or otherwise, Russia will utterly defeat the Ukraine and complete the denazification and demilitarization operation. Annexation of areas that identify more as Russians are bound to follow.

[Patrickov]

Despite anyone's feelings at the moment or otherwise, Russia will utterly defeat the Ukraine and complete the denazification and demilitarization operation. Annexation of areas that identify more as Russians are bound to follow.

If that's the case I would invoke Job 6:9.

[Beren]

It's already a stalemate and the Russians appear to be more-or-less pleased with what they've got so far, they only seem to want to get more of the Donbas. I'd expect them to offer peace for land and land swaps later.

[Negotiator]

I expect that Russia wins and get what they demand:

- Denazification of Ukraine

- Neutrality of Ukraine - Ukraine wont join the west and wont join the east

- Independence for Donbas, who after 8 years of getting bombarded by Ukraine dont want to be part of Ukraine anymore

- Official approval of Crimea joining Russia, as the referendum in 2014 had already decided.

- Possibly more demands, because they had to fight a war.

So - basically the Minsk agreement, but worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements