[Pants-of-dog]

Did you read the article or not? Several of China's neighbors don't like that it builds artificial islands in maritime territory they are claiming (even if they've done so themselves).

There was even an international case on the matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_v._China

And what claim does this support, exactly?

[wat0n]

And what claim does this support, exactly?

That this makes it a lot harder for China to become a superpower. Superpowers absolutely need to have alliances, preferably with their immediate neighbors.

[Pants-of-dog]

That this makes it a lot harder for China to become a superpower. Superpowers absolutely need to have alliances, preferably with their immediate neighbors.

And you have yet to demonstrate that China’s foreign policy position with its neighbours is not comparable to that of the USA.

And since the USA is capable of being a superpower with foreign relations comparable to China, it seems that this will not be a stumbling block for China either.

[wat0n]

And you have yet to demonstrate that China’s foreign policy position with its neighbours is not comparable to that of the USA.

And since the USA is capable of being a superpower with foreign relations comparable to China, it seems that this will not be a stumbling block for China either.

The US doesn't have any major border disputes with Canada or Mexico as far as I'm aware.

[Pants-of-dog]

It did when it was becoming a global power.

And it is still having then with the Indigenous people on the land.

In fact, taking land from its neighbours was one of the ways the USA became a global power. Not by being nice.

[wat0n]

It did when it was becoming a global power.

And it is still having then with the Indigenous people on the land.

In fact, taking land from its neighbours was one of the ways the USA became a global power. Not by being nice.

It stopped long before it became a global power. Even the colonies it had abroad were given up as part of the process of becoming an actual superpower.

[Pants-of-dog]

And I am sure that once China feels it is inevitable that it will reach whatever hegemonic ascendancy to which it aspires, it will also be magnanimous enough to allow these places the freedom to continue to enrich China.

Just as the USA has done with its neighbours and former colonies.

[wat0n]

And I am sure that once China feels it is inevitable that it will reach whatever hegemonic ascendancy to which it aspires, it will also be magnanimous enough to allow these places the freedom to continue to enrich China.

Just as the USA has done with its neighbours and former colonies.

Maybe, thus far it doesn't seem like it.

OTOH, China doesn't have colonies (I think).

[Robert Urbanek]

The thread seems to assume that Africa and Central and South America are irrelevant to the struggle. In the end, climate change may win WW3 and reduce most countries to a Mad Max movie.

[Fasces]

China doesn't have colonies (I think).

China had a colony! Lan feng republic! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanfang_Republic

For history's sake. It's not only Westerners, just mostly. And it was a reaction to Western colonialism.

[Godstud]

How can a person be so ignorant.

How can a person be ignorant AND a fool? Oh yeah, it's Mr Dunning-Kruger himself!

When USA colonizes it's called something else. USA tried to colonize Iraq and Afghanistan. Nice job of that.

[Fasces]

How can a person be ignorant AND a fool? Oh yeah, it Mr Dunning-Kruger himself!

When USA colonizes it's called something else. USA tried to colonize Iraq and Afghanistan. Nice job of that.

Again, for the sake of history - China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to protect the Khmer Rouge.

They kind of won. When I was living in Phnom Penh a major road was still Mao Zedong Street. Lots of shops, and the Chinese Embassy, were there!

[Wellsy]

If anything worries them is that a resurgent China that challenges US strength will make the US act in unpredictable ways. This air has been carefully cultivated by the US and its working for them for now, but if the US ever starts falling apart at the seams, I don't see them working hard to prop them back up.

This last part echoes something I deleted out of my original post. Basically the really scary thing is US domestic politics fucking things up. The US isn’t described as falling into civil war and violence over liberal politics, but things don’t seem as stable and strong as one might hope either. Some really crazy shit occurring and historical trajectories like no democratic nation blowing itself up is true until it isn’t.

[wat0n]

China had a colony! Lan feng republic! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanfang_Republic

For history's sake. It's not only Westerners, just mostly. And it was a reaction to Western colonialism.

Interesting, you could also count the Ottoman Empire as a non-Western colonial empire.

[Fasces]

Interesting, you could also count the Ottoman Empire as a non-Western colonial empire.

I specified East Asian precisely because the Middle East has the same overarching multinational religious strucutre (Caliphate). It's an Abrahamic thing.

Those sorts of alliances wouldn't exist in East Asia anyway - their preference is for bilateral arrangements or very basic regional trade agreements. Asia isn't Europe, with a history of multinational religious and political networks through Church or Napoleon that created a framework for its contemporary super alliances.

[Skynet]

I think Africa and Asia will rather support the Eastern Block because they are also the underdogs in the Dollar-System.

[Negotiator]

Pffffffffffffffffffffffft !

Extraterrestials will win WW3, since they'll get an unoccupied planet in the habitable zone they can terraform to their liking.

The idea that anyone could "win" a nuclear world war in which large parts of mankind get wiped out in the barrage and the rest of mankind gets wiped out in the over a decade long nuclear winter that will follow is pretty, well, unlikely.

Best possible outcome of WW3 is that some people somehow manage to survive. Maybe through using wind energy to generate light for growing crops. Or some such.

I think the Pax Americana will end. We see a WW3 slowly unfolding 1st Ukraine, now Israel, in future Taiwan and South-Korea..

Thats not a world war though.

The third world war was started in 1945. It is entirely economic in nature.

Not a world war either.

Also, China didnt start to "win", i.e. seriously growing their economy, before about the end of the 1970s.

After all, China is defeating the west at being good at capitalism.

Nope.

China is "winning" (over whom ?) by doing good economics.

Which actually is a mix of different philosophies.

Having said that, China is defeating the West at being good at expanding its forces of production.

They arent defeating anyone, they are just successfully transforming into a developed country.

There is no attack.

China getting powerful doesnt reduce the wealth of the west.

It is the second largest economy in the world.

By sheer ability to produce, China is the leading world power since 2016.

Which by the way is the main reason why the USA shouldnt pick a fight with China.

As the Ukraine war has demonstrated, the US military industrial complex is extremely corrupt and actually performs very poorly. As long as thats the case, the USA cannot defeat even Russia in conventional warfare. China is just as healthy an economy as Russia and they have ten times more people. Guess what chances the USA stands in such a conflict.

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

— Einstein

Define winning.

Einstein war far too optimistic, actually, by assuming that there would still be anyone around to fight any war.

[Rancid]

Feels like the war gaming in this thread is totally off.

[Godstud]

I will form an elite cadre of hot Thai women to serve as my bodyguards and rule Siam with an iron fist! Siam, after all is the gateway to Australia(According to Risk™). I will then consolidate and launch my conquest of Asia!!

I like you, @Rancid. I might just leave you be if you stay in the Americas.

[Deutschmania]

Other I feel that the military might of the hypothetical belligerent nations would cancel each other out . Also , given the vast differences in ruling ideology , it is not as if the East shall end up forming anything approaching the now defunct Warsaw Pact. If such disparate countries were to join together in a war , it would be strictly out of coincidence due to mutual material convenience. The only people who seriously expect the world powers to finally face off against each other , at [ur=]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armageddon]Armageddon[/url], are eschatologists, Christian , and Muslim alike. In which case , the winner would wind up being Jesus , and the Kingdom of Heaven. https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/yes-china-has-the-worlds-largest-navy-that-matters-less-than-you-might-think/ , https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/08/27/who-has-biggest-military-world-most-powerful/7888866001/ ,