[Electro Cat Attack]

Wasn't the UK in reality not a full member of the EU since the early 90s. They have a opt out of the Euro currency that is permanent. They never supported further political or military integration of the EU.

Isn't Brexit simply an acknowledgment of a reality that has existed for over 2 decades. Can't the UK simply create new trade agreements with the EU.

If the UK stayed in the EU they would have grown further and further from the Eurozone countries on the Euro and this would lead to further animosity.

I think in the end this is not such a big deal. The UK can move forward and the EU can push forward to integrate the Eurozone countries further if Germany is willing.

[noemon]

It's not a big deal because it isn't happening.

[Potemkin]

It's not a big deal because it isn't happening.

Oh, it's happening alright noemon. It's not just a bad dream.

My guess is that a typically British fudge will happen - The UK will leave the EU, but will remain in the common market and will retain the free movement of EU citizens. Boris Johnson has virtually said as much. In other words, we'll become like Norway or Switzerland - we'll have to pay more into the EU and will have to obey the EU rules, but will lose any say over what those rules are. In return, we get to repatriate our sovereignty and have just permanently opted out of any future "ever closer union". In other words, we're not leaving the EU so much as "leaving" it. Lol. This sort of fudge should keep both sides reasonably happy, with the exception of those Brits who voted Brexit in order to stop immigration. Brexit is not going to give them what they thought it was going to give them. The words "useful" and "idiots" spring to mind....

[noemon]

Its not happening mate, no Brit politician is going to give up the seat at the EU table or the privileged position of Britain with all its exceptions, to get back the seat will mean no more exceptions and the condition to adopt the euro, perhaps that is the British way of adopting the euro after all. Passing it off as necessary in 5 years time. Method tried and tested in Europe for years.

[Jake-UK]

Its not happening mate, no Brit politician is going to give up the seat at the EU table or the privileged position of Britain with all its exceptions, to get back the seat will mean no more exceptions and the condition to adopt the euro, perhaps that is the British way of adopting the euro after all. Passing it off as necessary in 5 tears time. Method tried and tested in Europe for years.

Do you realise what the backlash will be if they simply ignore the referendum result? We have already completely lost trust in our politicians - this will not help them at all.

[layman]

Hoping Noemon is right but think I agree with Pote.

As I said before the vote, the whole thing is very un-british. It spits in the face of stability, pragmatism and common sense to swap our current deal for a norway deal.

Of course the people hoping for something else mainly wanted an immigrant-exit. This was never going to happen.

Do you realise what the backlash will be if they simply ignore the referendum result? We have already completely lost trust in our politicians - this will not help them at all.

They wont ignore. They will fudge. It would be most un-british to just ignore the result. Unthinkable!

The will of the british people is 'sacred' after all

[Jake-UK]

I think a lot of people who voted for Brexit will have woken confused and angry this morning when they heard what Boris had to say. He said we will remain in the single market, which will come with freedom of movement. When people voted for Brexit, they voted to leave the EU, not to have a similar deal to Norway. If we do get a similar deal, and when people realise what the Norway deal entails, there will be a lot of anger. I can only see one winner from this - Nigel Farage. When Boris Johnson, who will inevitably be at the centre of the negotiations, gets the blame if something goes wrong (such as having to comply with freedom of movement), people will jump on the UKIP bandwagon.

[Potemkin]

Hoping Neomon is right but think I agree with Pote.

As I said before the vote, the whole thing is very un-british. It spits in the face of stability, pragmatism and common sense to swap our current deal for a norway deal.

Of course the people hoping for something else mainly wanted an immigrant-exit. This was never going to happen.

Indeed. Even guys like Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage are in favour of continued immigration into the UK; it's just that they want to select what kind of immigrants are allowed in. The 'Little Englanders' are doomed, and have no chance whatsoever of getting what they want, no matter how they vote or who they vote for.

They wont ignore. They will fudge. It would be most un-british to just ignore the result. Unthinkable!

The will of the british people is 'sacred' after all

The British elite are past masters at giving the people what they ask for while actually not giving them what they ask for.

[Seeker8]

Didn't Johnstone and Gove keep going on about the EU stopping us being able to control our borders? That was literally the biggest point of their campaign. It's going to be really funny seeing them try and get out of this now.

[Potemkin]

Didn't Johnstone and Gove keep going on about the EU stopping us being able to control our borders? That was literally the biggest point of their campaign. It's going to be really funny seeing them try and get out of this now.

They're British and they're politicians, ftm. I'm sure they'll find a way.

[Jake-UK]

Gove is already an unpopular politician, especially with teachers.

Boris Johnson, on the other hand, is quite popular as far as politicians go. If he gets this wrong, it could completely ruin his reputation.

[The Immortal Goon]

There's another side to this coin...

What incentive does the EU have for letting Britain fudge?

Britain has long been pretty good about taking as much money and infrastructure as possible while changing as little as possible, and this has been vexing to some in the EU. Further, there are groups in other EU countries that would love to try and leave too. And the EU has more or less said the UK can't drag its feet and needs to get the hell out as soon as it can. Finally, the youth in the UK are much more pro-EU than the elderly.

I'm not saying it'll happen, but would it not make sense to cast the UK out and let it get beat up a bit before having to come back?

To let Scotland try to leave the UK and come to the EU, saving its economy and place in the world in the process?

To put up a hard border in Ireland and allow the north of Ireland to descend into depression and possibly chaos?

Even Ian Paisly Jr, who campaigned for Brexit, and is a rabid anti-Irish, anti-Republican, is advising his followers to apply to become citizens of the Irish Republic in the EU. And word is that unionists have been doing so at a fevered pitch.

Which begs the question of where their, "no surrender," call is going to lead them if the going actually gets tough. Reunification is already on people's lips and if even the unionists are lining up to become citizens of the republic, it may only be a waiting game for the UK to be almost completely dismantled.

Completely isolated, Wales and England would, in years time, have little choice but to come crawling back on blended knee to the EU, and probably agree to EU currency and everything else.

It would also be a stark warning to anyone else that decided to leave the EU.

Not saying that will happen. But if I were in charge of the EU, I'd push things as hard as possible to make that likely.

[Potemkin]

Not saying that will happen. But if I were in charge of the EU, I'd push things as hard as possible to make that likely.

That's a very high risk strategy on the part of the EU, TIG. Even assuming it works, the UK (or what's left of it) would be sullen and resentful towards the whole EU Project. It's much more likely that a Norway-style fudge would be allowed to happen - Britain can tell its people that we have reclaimed our glorious national sovereignty, at the price of increased contributions to the EU and losing any influence over the EU's rules, which we must still obey. Both the Brexit and the Remain camps get a lot of what they want (the anti-immigration Brexit voters, of course, get shafted). Even the EU gets what it wants this way - they can put their foot down on the accelerator and speed towards the "ever greater union" they have been aspiring towards, without being slowed down by Britain yanking on the handbrake.

[layman]

Goon is thinking like Igor today. Wishful thinking.

The EU is not a country, let alone a Russia or a US. While many Eurocrats would love this idea they have no authority to do anything.

Merkel and her car maker buddies though. They call the shots and so will likely look for compromise. Besides, punishment would not look too good after the whole Greek affair. Trying to kick start a war in Ireland is not really their style anyway lol.

Still, it's not out of the question to try some kind of punishment. It would just mean Germany not getting its way. I can't really see that happening. ... Especially as other places like Poland have interests that need to be Factored in.

PS a Norway deal is worse than what we have now and might be able to be spun into a "loss for the uk" Not a punishment as such but something they can point to and say "you really want that"?

At the same Time, boris can get his technical out without pissing off the city and the 48% too much.

[Beren]

I'm in total agreement with Potemkin. Which means Britain will be the EU's satellite basically. That's what Decky and company voted for.

[Potemkin]

PS a Norway deal is worse than what we have now and might be able to be spun into a "loss for the uk" Not a punishment as such but something they can point to and say "you really want that"?

At the same Time, boris can get his technical out without pissing off the city and the 48% too much.

Precisely. That sort of fudge would give all sides something which they could live with. It's no accident that Boris has repeated said that the vote was a very close one. He's preparing us for The Great Fudge....

[The Immortal Goon]

That's a very high risk strategy on the part of the EU, TIG.

I don't disagree. And even if it doesn't go to the apololyptic levels I was speculating about, I think the EU wouldn't mind getting the EU out as quickly as possible and then string them back in a bit slower. Right now the UK is shaken, and I can imagine letting them shake for a while.

I want to reiterate that I wasn't making a prediction, just that there is a benefit to the EU in letting the UK take some lumps before coming back in. But, again, not to say it will happen.

[layman]

I called the term "project fudge" first. Let it be known.

I actually fully believe now that boris didn't want to win. He wanted to lose and then sit in the wings until the next election. He has lots of problems now but the biggest one is that he is a popularist. That is where his power lies and where it has always been since his school days.

The worst place for a popularist to be is in a situation where....

1 - Serious hard nosed negotiations are needed with stone faced, Dutch, Germans and angry French ...
2 - 48% of the population are angry and scared and may blame him
3 - 52% are expecting something you cannot deliver
4 - his party is split down the middle
5 - the economy is going to take a battering and he can't blame the last guy
6 - he has to be the one to initiate article 50 which will straight away hit the economy worse - He will literally initiate this hit as he stands up and announces it on TV

THis is a time for politicians just like Theresa May. Not people like boris. His charm is no use here. People will tire of him quick.

[yiostheoy]

Nissan Motor Co. is probably going to need to move their NMUK plant from northern England to Ireland now.

US companies will be faced with the same issue.

Does that count as a big deal?

[supersizeme]

Probably a dumb question, but is the referendum legally binding in any way? Or is it just that Boris Johnson & Co's hands are tied to the ship?