[Sasa]

Soaring housing prices and affordability have been hot topics in Australia/New Zealand these years. But I noted that in other countries, especially the U.S. that doesn't seem to be a remarkable problem (out of San Francisco Bay Area, I know). I have former classmates living in the U.S. so I know how cheap the houses are there, without looking at the affordability index where most American cities are ranked in top part.

Some people attribute high price to high percentage of Chinese migrants, who indeed maintain high level home ownership, especially considering their income level. But that just seems to be part of the story, non-Chinese people are equally obsessive in property speculation, a recent report revealed that almost all Australian MPs have considerable property investments, which explains why the policies they made were never genuinely intended to suppress the housing bubble.

Apparently we cannot say Americans are too stupid to learn how to make money from property speculation. I'd like to see people's opinions from U.S.

[Sasa]

I cite the words from "Howard Cummer - University of Saskatchewan":
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China will be one of the top 10 economies for US dollar millionaires in 2020, when it will be home to 2.3 million, compared to 1.3 million now, according to a Credit Suisse forecast issued on Oct 15, 2015.Credit Suisse Research Institute's global wealth report said total household wealth on the mainland increased 7 per cent to US$22.8 trillion from mid-2014 to mid-2015, putting it second to the US.

Around half of China's rich aim to move to another country within the next five years, according to a Barclays Bank Wealth report issued Sept 15, 2015.Respondents from the mainland were the most eager to move, with 47 per cent saying they planned to do just that in the next five years, compared with just 16 per cent of Hongkongers.Around 30 per cent of Chinese respondents listed Hong Kong as their top destination, followed by Canada at 23 per cent.

If this Credit Suisse forecast and Barclay’s Wealth report are anywhere near accurate it will mean that about 1.1 million Chinese Millionaires will be leaving China in the next five years and of those 1.1 million about 250,000 will be coming to Canada – mostly to Vancouver followed by Toronto.

With the 10 year multi entry visa program in place for Chinese visitors the 250,000 don’t need to immigrate – they can just come to visit many times each year – or they can apply to become immigrants through the still open Quebec immigration program and then just stop off in Vancouver or Toronto. There is no requirement enforced about settling in Quebec.

Given these figures the probability of high end Vancouver real estate cooling down through Bank of Canada actions on increasing the size of down payments and raising the mortgage interest rate seems slim to nil. These actions will make it more difficult for tax paying Canadians to buy even in the peripheries of Toronto and Vancouver but will have little to no effect on rich new arrivals whether from China or elsewhere.

Unless City Governments are prepared to charge a property surtax on vacant properties, unless Provincial Governments are prepared to vastly increase the property transfer tax for non resident buyers, and unless the Federal Government is prepared to insist that residents in Canada, whether permanent or temporary, declare incomes commiserate with the value of the property they own, nothing is going to stop the juggernaut of cash flowing out from growing but legally uncertain economies like China.

If nothing is done then the living standards of tax paying Canadians can only fall.

Will all levels of Government be prepared to invest in vast public housing estates as the Governments of Singapore and Hong Kong have done in order to provide housing for the local under class? It seems unlikely.

I am very pessimistic about the future of my children and grandchildren especially in places like Toronto and Vancouver. I sadly am advising them to move elsewhere in order to have a better quality of life in which to raise their families.
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The key point here is not to blame Chinese investors, but the local governments like the Canadian governments mentioned here who actually enjoy the impact of Chinese investment without concerns on the long-term prospect of people in the country.