- 14 Nov 2017 06:14
#14862513
Science involves the scientific method. You don't understand what that is, because you say that science is all "speculation". It's not. They aren't always perfect, because we learn more about it every day, but it's not just "guessing" like what you have a 'determined'.
Making predictions based on past occurrences is not "fairy tale" stuff. They base the predictions on FACT, not tea leaves, or entrails.
Predicting Climate Change
Scientists have developed several computer-run simulations, or models, that combine and express in mathematical form what we know about the processes that control the atmospheric and hydrologic systems. The most advanced climate models are called General Circulation Models, or GCM's. These models are the primary tools used by scientists to try to predict the impacts of increased greenhouse gas concentration. The strength of these models is their ability to replicate input-response activities and relationships within complex systems that are far too elaborate for simple interpretation or logic. They have the ability to integrate various feedback processes in order to determine their effects on overall impact, and quickly generate different scenarios under varied assumptions about human activities.
A feedback can be defined as a direct result of a given process that either magnifies (positive feedback) or diminishes (negative feedback) the total effect of that very same process. One example of a positive feedback of global warming is the potential impact of increased concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere. As the oceans and atmosphere warm, the rate evaporation increases, causing more water vapor to accumulate in the atmosphere. As we noted earlier, water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, causing even more heat to be trapped in the troposphere. Thus global warming is magnified by a result of its own existence.
“Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson