- 01 Feb 2018 02:18
#14884607
Good points.
And I also think it is an issue.
I think it's a major risk, despite what my previous posts might have seemed to suggest.
However, the forseeability alone still tempers the risk in some respects, with respect to the concerns of the City of London.
I think that this is a big peril for the working class, which is principally what I'm concerned with. I haven't been convinced that this sort of situation will form a spreading contagion. I say so because of the nature of the management of financial risk, on the part of financial institutions. It's the whole 'heads I win, tails you lose' thing.
I haven't painted any scenarios which are favorable for the workers. What I am still unsure about is whether it constitutes a severe systemic financial risk, at least at its surface. The indicators you raise do have adverse implications for systemic risk, I would tend to think. There are likewise systemic risk factors on the surface, but predicting an actual collapse seems to me a complicated matter.
Atlantis wrote:Ghost towers: half of new-build luxury London flats fail to sell
If half of luxury flats fail to sell, then there is a glut. Moreover, newly planned towers are in the pipeline, which can't be cancelled without substantial losses, and numerous owners have taken their property off the market because they would be making a loss selling below what they invested.
A pile of bricks is just a pile of bricks. It's value increases if the economy grows, if it doesn't, the value will fall. A lot of people have invested in real estate in the expectation of continued growth. As this growth fails to materialize, they will make losses and thus further reduce economic growth.
Good points.
And I also think it is an issue.
I think it's a major risk, despite what my previous posts might have seemed to suggest.
However, the forseeability alone still tempers the risk in some respects, with respect to the concerns of the City of London.
I think that this is a big peril for the working class, which is principally what I'm concerned with. I haven't been convinced that this sort of situation will form a spreading contagion. I say so because of the nature of the management of financial risk, on the part of financial institutions. It's the whole 'heads I win, tails you lose' thing.
I haven't painted any scenarios which are favorable for the workers. What I am still unsure about is whether it constitutes a severe systemic financial risk, at least at its surface. The indicators you raise do have adverse implications for systemic risk, I would tend to think. There are likewise systemic risk factors on the surface, but predicting an actual collapse seems to me a complicated matter.