[Patrickov]

@jimjam's attempt to lionize Biden makes me feel uneasy.

[Steve_American]

It is not a western victory and I am not sure what you are talking about. If you are talking about that Ukraine switched from Russian camp to pro-Western one then this was the consequence of Russian model failing. Ukraine is pretty similar in this with Russia, well was, but you need to add the fact that the nation itself was a bit disunited on the subject. Now they are firmly pro-West because of Crimea and Donbass. This wasn't as much a victory of the West but Russian own doing in the end. From the system failing for the same reasons it was failing in Russia to the direct military campaign in the past. Current Ukraine is Russias own creation. And nothing short of a military invasion can change that anymore even with Ukranian reforms being crap and not moving them nearly enough to the write place when it comes to rule of law, economy and so on.

As for arrogance of some sort? Are you joking, we are living near Russia and understand that we are fully under the threat of Russian occupation if we don't receive help from others. We stand no chance alone but with perhaps the other Baltic states and Poland, we have a good chance now especially after our combined economies growing while Russia is stagnating. This is not even mentioning NATO. We have been transitioning to an intermarium configuration within NATO for some time now. This is what we failed to do before WW2.

As for Russia being either too strong or too weak. This is not the case, the truth is actually somewhere in the middle. Russian army has very well trained units but there is not many of them and the same goes for cutting edge equipment. It exists but it can't be mass produced due to economic limitations. Also in any long direct conflict, they won't be able to manufacture much anymore since much of their own electronics rely on Western technologies and western manufactured microchips, circuits and so on. Same goes for Russian economy, sure they can keep stacking money in the bank due to oil and gas prices while not giving any money to the people but this only works as long as they sell the said oil and gas to Europe. Russia tried to sell more to China but they don't wanna buy at the same price as Europe and the current Siberian power pipeline for gas and oil is barely in the red, basically it is net 0 profit or a bit of a loss right now.

Russia is not a traditionally a shithole, it is a shithole right now though since the 1980s there has been a form of stagnation in the country. Sure Russia lives a bit better then compared to the Soviet times due to introduction of capitalism but this is crony capitalism and they are stuck in one place. They are in the similar place as the old Ukraine just with a far less divide within the country due to ethnic Russian population outnumbering the minorities through hundreds years of assimilation.

But the main problem is the whole attitude of Russian elite and its propaganda. They still live in the 20th century and are in no way close to becoming people living in the 21st century. For them the main idea is zero sum game in economy and politics while zones of influence need to be divided. The fact that Europe manages somehow not to fight itself through democracy, economy and diplomacy doesn't seem to even come to their mind. So while we here trying to establish win-win situation while failing in a lot of cases, Russia doesn't even try in this regard. How could they? They have different understanding that is still stuck somewhere in the 20th century. It goes along the line that the West is evil, the West is encorching on its zone of influence, the West is here to destroy us and so on. They don't really think that the economy and prosperity of the West has anything to do with it. Our system is just more appealing to the average joe or the average person will eventually ask himself why Europe and US lives 3-4-5-6 and so on times better than Russia. How come Estonia has a gdp per capita 3 times more and many other things 3 times more compared to Russia? After all Estonia has nothing while Russia has all the resources in the world.

@Steve_American

MMT doesn't work for non rule of law countries. I would even say that MMT will have trouble anywhere outside of the dollar or euro zones. You need to have a solid monetary and financial systems.

@Politics_Observer

Noemon is trying to explain Russian strength by 21st century standards ignoring that Russia still lives in the 20th century. USSR was the 2nd largest economy in the world even under communism but it didn't stop it from collapsing. There is more to it than Putin stacking cash in the bank from oil and gas high prices wihout giving almost anything as support to Russian people in a pandemic.

Theoretically this prolonges his regime due to this being a warchest of sorts that he can give to his oligarchs or fund the repressive apparatus. Modern Theory and research on the subject for autocratic and totalitarian states says that at some point the state will need to either continue increasing spending on that repressive appratus forever or go full dictatorship which is basically ignoring the cost of repression and replacing it with violence instead of money which is exactly what is happening right now. This again, is not a workable solution. Which modern Dictatorship has existed more than a 100 years? Doesn't necessarily mean that they will become democratic but most dictatorships had 10 coups and 1 civil war by now.

John, your reply is very unclear. What is the "dollar zone"? Are Japan, Canada, Aust., and NZ in it.
Japan has denied it for 30 years, but MMTer Profs. say it is a perfect example of MMT in action.

Please explain why Putin can't use deficit spending to shore up his popularity with the Mass of the Russian people, better than starting a war in Ukraine. Putin AFAIK can do what he wants inside Russia. He can enforce whatever laws he wants to have enforced, right?
.

[colliric]

Anyone know what they were saying?

I know the dude who gets hit is a Pro-Russian Pollie and the journalist punching him hates Russia, but why did they get so animated?

What did he actually say to set it Off?

[Patrickov]

Please explain why Putin can't use deficit spending to shore up his popularity with the Mass of the Russian people, better than starting a war in Ukraine. Putin AFAIK can do what he wants inside Russia. He can enforce whatever laws he wants to have enforced, right?
.

Deficit spending is only sustainable the basis that there are always others who are willing to pay in your stead, as in the case of the West (including places like Switzerland), where oligarchs from dictatorial shitholes deposit their dirty money. For rogue countries like Russia or China, there is no such income source for dictators to spoil.

That said, sanctions do not necessarily cripple these dictators either as the common people do not actually benefit from financial prosperity of their own countries anyways, and national pride is an easy tool to brainwash them, although admittedly Russia is less fanatic than China in this case.

[Patrickov]

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1494791327724281873?t=mA0VpfsCLs4HV3rt7aCj9A&s=19

Anyone know what they were saying?

I know the dude who gets hit is a Pro-Russian Pollie and the journalist punching him hates Russia, but why did they get so animated?

What did he actually say to set it Off?

From the comments this not that different from the video where Hong Kong protesters allegedly set fire on a pro-Beijing challenger.
The pro-Russian troll attracted attack probably just by sitting there.

IMHO the justifiability of such action has to be decided on a lot of matters.
For example, doing it on one or two individual is useless and tarnishes the righteous people's images.
Doing it en masse makes real difference but admittedly collateral damage will be great.

Physically it's like earthquake -- either you don't feel it, but when it comes even being near ground zero means you deserve to die.

[noemon]

The chance of war seems to be inexorably rising. Troop build-ups continue, Russian-backed forces in Eastern Ukraine have shelled a nursery across the frontline and, most convincingly, the Ukrainian government has stopped downplaying the threat and begun to talk about “ongoing escalation” of the crisis.

Perhaps unwisely, Western leaders have gone even further, with President Biden declaring that President Putin has already decided to invade. Presumably, this sort of talk is meant to signal to Mr Putin that we know what he’s up to and so he’d better think twice. Good luck with that.

The truth is that Mr Putin has exposed the West’s fundamental weakness, which is the unwillingness to use military force in Ukraine under any circumstances.

The overriding priority now must be to protect Nato’s remaining credibility, because the biggest risk ultimately facing Europe is that our feeble response in Ukraine invites Moscow to push us further, until we end up in a war between nuclear-armed powers.

This means making the most of all the non-military tools at our disposal. After all, if Nato countries can’t even muster the guts to impose sanctions and make life difficult for Mr Putin’s cronies, how can they pretend they would actually defend the borders of Europe?

Hurting Russia with sanctions won’t be easy and it will incur costs, but the costs are hardly existential. The most severe measures, which should be on the table, would involve a ban on trading or owning Russian sovereign debt and adding Russia’s main four banks to a list of proscribed institutions, meaning they could not arrange deals, buy foreign currency or clear payments with any company that wishes to operate in our markets.

The US, in effect, takes the lead here, since it wields the biggest financial stick with which to browbeat markets into compliance, but the UK (and European financial centres such as Paris and Amsterdam) could help by replicating US measures rather than by providing convenient ways around them as we did in 2019.

These measures aren’t going to break the bank in Russia, however, mainly because Moscow was already largely forced out of Western markets by the US’s first big round of sanctions over Crimea. The 2014 sanctions pushed Russia into a painful series of government budget cuts and falls in bank lending, which have depressed economic growth ever since.

Since then, Russia has made it a priority to build up foreign currency reserves and to save proceeds from gas sales, dubbed the “Fortress Russia” strategy. It makes Moscow highly resilient for now, but it has come at a cost to its economy and its people.

This is why broad financial sanctions are not enough. Another obvious option, especially given the barrage of cyber-attacks emanating from Moscow, is for the US to expand its export controls on microchips to include Russian buyers, a measure used before to wound Huawei and effectively end its involvement in our 5G network.

Likewise, now would be a good time for Germany (or the US) to cancel the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into its territory once and for all. Despite opposing the project, Washington has thus far listened to German appeals to let it go ahead, even though it could easily introduce sanctions on companies involved that would effectively make it unviable.

But public opinion even in Germany is turning. Earlier today, Berlin’s new foreign minister Annalena Baerbock for the first time told a major gathering of diplomats that her government is prepared to scrap the project if Russia escalates too far. Again, it wouldn’t be an existential threat to Moscow, but it would be a strategic blow.

As for Britain, there is still one set of weapons at our – and only our – disposal that could actually inflict some damage on the people closest to Mr Putin: we should go after the wealth of the oligarchs. It is ultimately no good talking tough on Ukraine if the very people facilitating Moscow’s belligerence are welcomed into London’s super-elite with no questions asked.

This particular set of billionaires, who are at Mr Putin’s beck and call, make full use of Britain’s amenities, buying huge houses, sending their children to our private schools, befriending and recruiting well-connected politicians into their business empires, and using our courts to pursue their critics with a toxic combination of data protection and libel law.

There is undoubtedly some new legislation needed to chase down these Putin cronies and end the abuse of our courts, but by and large, many of the legal tools required already exist.

British authorities have a range of powers to compel mysterious and ultra-wealthy foreigners to explain where their wealth comes from, to find out who owns what and to freeze assets if their owners are connected to corruption. Yet the Government’s constant refrain is that our crime agencies are independent bodies and must make up their own minds about whether to target Mr Putin’s allies.

This is absurd. There are no circumstances in which the National Crime Agency or anyone else could possibly take the huge political risk and commit the resources required to chase down an oligarch without explicit and unwavering backing from the Government.

It shouldn’t be hard to avoid making this a xenophobic or legally dubious policy. Legitimate money is welcome and the laws aren’t there to persecute rich Russians. They are there to get at Mr Putin’s facilitators, and making their lives difficult is a matter of national security, not spite.

This doesn’t just apply to the gangsters of Moscow either; it’s true of Beijing’s proxies as well. Increasingly, our legal system needs to be able to designate targets on the basis of their connections to sinister regimes.

Yet there is little sign that anyone in Government has done any serious thinking on this matter.

Sending weapons to Ukraine is all very well, but how about manning the home front? We cannot carp at Germany over Nord Stream 2 and expect the US to do all the heavy lifting on sanctions if Britain won’t use its own particular strengths to get at the oligarchs.

We all know very well the economic weapon Russia has pointed at the heart of Europe in the form of its gas pipelines. But we have a few economic bazookas of our own pointing the other way, too.

We have shown we are not willing to use force. If we are not willing to use money either, we are only inviting further escalation and risking a catastrophe.

[JohnRawls]

quotes

Look back in to history, when did significant events for change happen to Russia? Was it foreign enforced? No, most of the changes happened because people were severely discontent because of similar policies just in different times and you can go back century after century and see the same thing. Soviet Revolution and collapse of the USSR are just the more recent examples. You can build up whatever fortress you want but Russian people at some point will have enough and will just hang you on a tree or put you infront of a firing squad.

[noemon]

Look back in to history, when did significant events for change happen to Russia? Was it foreign enforced? No, most of the changes happened because people were severely discontent because of similar policies just in different times and you can go back century after century and see the same thing. Soviet Revolution and collapse of the USSR are just the more recent examples. You can build up whatever fortress you want but Russian people at some point will have enough and will just hang you on a tree or put you infront of a firing squad.

Conditions are nowhere near the same despite your earnest attempts to paint such a ridiculous picture and Putin is not Tsar Nicholas, who was exceptionally stupid and pushed the envelope beyond imagination.

[Red_Army]

@Rancid Ukraine's GDP is lower than Belarus and has 5 times the population.

[JohnRawls]

@Rancid Ukraine's GDP is lower than Belarus and has 5 times the population.

Ukraine has 2.5 more times GDP of Belarus.

[JohnRawls]

Conditions are nowhere near the same despite your earnest attempts to paint such a ridiculous picture and Putin is not Tsar Nicholas, who was exceptionally stupid and pushed the envelope beyond imagination.

And now this is where the question lies actually. There is a lot of discontent about Putin in Russia and his support has fallen to 30-35% or so along with his party. Is that enough? Who knows actually. This is more or less borderline and anything lower will force him to transition in a old style dictatorship to maintain full grip on power.

[noemon]

And now this is where the question lies actually. There is a lot of discontent about Putin in Russia and his support has fallen to 30-35% or so along with his party. Is that enough? Who knows actually. This is more or less borderline and anything lower will force him to transition in a old style dictatorship to maintain full grip on power.

He's in old school despotism there already and has been for a while.

I think this is wishful thinking gone mad.

[Beren]

Ukraine's GDP is lower than Belarus and has 5 times the population.

Do you think there's still feudalism in Ukraine, or what?

[Rancid]

No one agree with my wild speculation that Putin has a terminal illness?

[noemon]

Do you think there's still feudalism in Ukraine, or what?

Belarus' per capita gdp is still higher than Ukraine's and Russia's much higher even.

[Beren]

Belarus' per capita gdp is still higher than Ukraine's and Russia's much higher even.

Sure, Ukraine has a crappy economy, but it's still not Congo.

[Rich]

Corruption's a big problem in Ukraine and Joe Biden has personally helped fuel that. I guess from Biden's point of view Ukraine no longer has a use for his expanding his family's wealth.

[late]

Corruption's a big problem in Ukraine and Joe Biden has personally helped fuel that. I guess from Biden's point of view Ukraine no longer has a use for his expanding his family's wealth.

Corruption was a massive problem in Ukraine.

Biden went to Ukraine as a representative of the EU, USA and the IMF. They wanted Shokin out because he wouldn't pursue corruption cases.

That Hunter nonsense is just your usual Right wing lie. Burisma was not being investigated. What's worse, is that your blatant lie was to distract from Trump's blatant, and wildly improper, nepotism.

But if you're addicted to excuses, any excuse will do for an Excuse Junkie..

[noemon]

German Chancellor rejects Ukrainian President's pleas for sanctions against Russia today claiming that "it's better to leave Putin guessing".

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/19/ukraine ... tions.html

[Beren]

I wonder if what sense it'd make to sanction Russia anyway before she'd do anything, it'd rather encourage them to act as they want.