[Godstud]

If you ask people anywhere if they are happy, they will say the same things, @Politics_Observer. If there is one constant in this world, it is that most people don't like the government that rules them.

Also.

[Politics_Observer]

@Godstud

So you think Taiwan should accept an authoritarian government and be ruled by a dictator? Do you want Canada to have the same form of government as China? One of my old professors is from Taiwan and he says what China is saying is bullshit.

[Rugoz]

In any case, the Taiwanese should make the decision for themselves

Only the CCP disagrees with that.

not forced into a war by a bunch of neocon voters across the world.

The US has no interest in a military confrontation over Taiwan, because it would be hugely costly and not winnable in the long term. It's all about deterrence.

China does not want to invade Taiwan, at this time. China may feel forced into invading Taiwan, but if the KMT wins the upcoming elections, a return to early millennium détente is entirely realistic.

"at this time", yeah sure, but China is preparing for it and there's a significant chance it will happen in the long term, especially if Taiwan is not prepared, hence Taiwan must prepare for it.

"may feel forced"? Oh poor China "may feel forced" to wage war on Taiwan.

The DPP is pushing a conflict more likely by risking confrontation on two red lines that will start a war that China does not want - the hosting of US troops/a US military base; or a declaration of independence.

Are those part of the DPP program? I imagine not. What makes you think important stuff like that will even be decided without a referendum in Taiwan.

But the real possibility of a KMT-TPP victory will lead to a significant shift in Taiwanese foreign policy regardless, because of the absence of the anti-Chinese radicals within the party, and can lead to a reduction of tensions in the strait.

I have no doubt the mainland prefers a KMT victory, since the KMT's idiotic defense policy (symmetric posture) will make a future invasion much easier.

[Politics_Observer]

@Rugoz

It is very likely that if China attacks Taiwan then the U.S. and China will directly fight each other. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the United States to increase its military defense spending as well as give Taiwan all the tools and weapons they need to defend itself. It is only through credible deterrence that a war between China, Taiwan, and the United States can be prevented. It is also very likely that U.S. Pacific allies would be drawn into the conflict as well. If a war breaks out, there will be no winners and everybody will pay a very high and dear price. It is also very unlikely that the conflict will remain only between China, Taiwan, and the United States. China will probably seek out Russia's assistance as well I am sure.

[Fasces]

@Fasces

This is not the same thing.

Then, simply, you do not understand your enemy.

It is the same thing, to the Chinese people and their leaders.

They're true believers. Manipulation implies otherwise, but the fact is that this is simply what the Chinese believe. The other stuff is ancillary. A bonus, but not the reason.

Americans made the same mistake in the Middle East - they confuse their own lack of emotional attachment or feeling to issues in these lands (because of course issues in Afghan or Iraqi society don't matter to Americans) to these things not mattering to the locals. To their detriment. They'd be repeating the same mistake with Taiwan.

This is common, the world over. I am not saying this bias is unique to Americans. Donkey meat is very prized in China, for example, and very expensive. One Chinese businessman had an idea to open a donkey meat factory abroad to meet the demand, and chose to open it in Ethiopia, the country with the most donkeys per capita in the world. Of course, he didn't realize that opening a donkey meat factory in a country where the donkey isn't sacred, but close enough, is a bad idea. His factory got destroyed in a riot, burned to the ground, and he barely escaped with his life.

You've got to understand and empathize the point of views of others if you want to realistically engage with them and not make deadly mistakes. Unless American policy makers understand that Taiwan is not just another place to the Chinese, they won't understand the root cause of the conflict.

the rest

Although true to varying degrees, none of the rest is relevant when discussing the view from Beijing and mainland China.

So, the Chinese government has opted to use force to force their authoritarian government upon Taiwan against its will.

Except that they haven't. They're absolutely willing to use force if it comes to it, but the CPC believes in and prefers a peaceful reunification. Even if this is a delusional belief, it is their belief that after a period of economic interdependence, mutual exchange, and etc. that the Taiwanese will eventually come to want to willingly join with China, and they're willing to wait for a very long time for that day.

They view the US as interfering with that natural process, sure, and the US has to walk a fine line (too little support makes a blockade or other coercive action just as likely as too much support). That's the problem with beliefs - if it becomes clear that Taiwan will never rejoin peacefully of course they will use force, but Chinese leaders are not at that point yet. They still believe, rightly or wrongly, that if the US butted out and let them work with the KMT to bring their economies together that reunification would be inevitable.

Only the CCP disagrees with that.

No. A lot of Americans and Europeans want to make the decision for Taiwan, by unilaterally recognizing their independence.

The US has no interest in a military confrontation over Taiwan, because it would be hugely costly and not winnable in the long term. It's all about deterrence.

The State Department bureaucrats, maybe.

Oh poor China "may feel forced" to wage war on Taiwan.

China is not a thing. The US is not a thing. We can only talk about individuals serving in positions of power and the pressures they feel. The leadership of China would be forced into a war on Taiwan in these conditions, or face a coup/arrest/execution.

Are those part of the DPP program? I imagine not. What makes you think important stuff like that will even be decided without a referendum in Taiwan.

No. Is Christian nationalism a part of the Republican program? No.

Can you find mainstream voices in the Republican Party calling for Christian nationalism and biblical law? Yes. Can you find mainstream voices in the DPP calling for a Taiwanese declaration of independence and hosting of US military base? Yes.

I have no doubt the mainland prefers a KMT victory, since the KMT's idiotic defense policy (symmetric posture) will make a future invasion much easier.

You should read US generals bemoaning the DPP defense policy, and positions on officer corruption, conscription and asymmetric warfare. They're not any better than the KMT. The island as a whole is not really committed to doing what would be necessary to actually stave off a Chinese invasion, something the American military complains about constantly.

[Rugoz]

I mentioned two specific policies that were at the behest of the US.

1) The ban on persons working in engineering or semi-conductor related industries from accepting jobs for Chinese companies or in China, regardless of pay.

2) Demanding that Taiwan switch from importing food from China and other Asian countries to buying American food exports to replace US trade lost in the Trump's tariff war.

Both of these were done entirely at the behest of the US.

I hope you have sources for both of these being done "entirely at the behest of the US". China has sanctioned Taiwan, in particular when it comes to food.

[Godstud]

So you think Taiwan should accept an authoritarian government and be ruled by a dictator? Do you want Canada to have the same form of government as China? One of my old professors is from Taiwan and he says what China is saying is bullshit.

WTF are you yapping on about? The only information you know about China and Taiwan is what the extremely biased American MSM spoon-feeds you. Pay attention to what @Fasces says on the subject. He's at least IN China.

I don't care about what some professor of yours thinks. He probably gets all his information, now, from the same place you do. This is just an Appeal to Authority.

The only situation where USA attacks Taiwan is if USA instigates it. USA oligarchs always benefit from wars and the Ukraine/Russia war can't last forever. They'll need a new source of revenue after that ends. USA wants to retain its hegemony.

Can you imagine if USA had troubles with Puerto Rico(the day will come- taxation without representation) and China puts a naval battlegroup nearby just in case? Surely that's not there to cause problems...

[Politics_Observer]

@Fasces

In my opinion, if Taiwan isn't willing to fight for its independence, then we shouldn't support Taiwan. They need to be willing to fight for their own independence before we help them out. Otherwise, we are just wasting money and the lives of our own sailors and marines. However, my impression from my old Taiwanese Computer Science professor is that many in Taiwan do not wish to live under Chinese CCP rule because they view them as an authoritarian government and they don't want to live under an authoritarian government. The authorities in China need to understand that Taiwan doesn't want to live under their rule because they are an authoritarian government and need to allow truly free and fair elections in their own country.

[Godstud]

Taiwan does not have to fight for anything. That's the lie you are told by MSM.

China is demonized by all and yet the people I know who live or work there, hold differing views.

USA needs to leave Taiwan alone. They are instigators in this. All they'll do is cause problems because it makes them money and it's US foreign policy.

[Fasces]

However, my impression from my old Taiwanese Computer Science professor is that many in Taiwan do not wish to live under Chinese CCP rule because they view them as an authoritarian government and they don't want to live under an authoritarian government.

All of the following are true statements:

1. Taiwanese don't want to be under Chinese control.

2. Taiwanese don't want to serve in the military, or be conscripted.

3. Taiwanese don't want a war with China to touch the island - they want it to be fought in the air and sea, not the city streets.

Most American strategists understand that points 2 and 3 contradict point 1.

The Taiwanese seem have cut the knot, at least for now, content with maintaining the status quo - buying some prestige equipment from the US that won't do much in the event of an actual conflict but looks fancy; but not outright declaring independence or signing an alliance with the US. Some Taiwanese feel that the DPP has become a bit radical in its foreign policy, and shifted back toward support for the KMT-TPP in the upcoming election (six months away!).

They are also worried that some American politicians and voters will force the issue by recognizing their independence without their consent.

The authorities in China need to understand that Taiwan doesn't want to live under their rule because they are an authoritarian government and need to allow truly free and fair elections in their own country.

I'm sure they understand that, but much like the US-Confederate dispute... the wishes of the local people do not matter. The "Union" is more important.

Again, I'm not defending this. Taiwan should be allowed to determine its own future. Policy discussions, however, don't deal in 'should' or 'I wish'.

[Politics_Observer]

@Godstud

That's not entirely true and is overly simplistic of the situation. We have a defense treaty, similar to that of NATO stemming from the Cold War. We are not trying to instigate anything, just like NATO didn't instigate any sort of attack on Ukraine by Russia. Nor is this case in regard to Taiwan and China. Not hard to understand.

@Fasces

If the Taiwanese aren't willing to fight and die for their own independence like the Ukrainians are, then there is no sense in sending them money, weapons, and the backing of the U.S. military to defend them. They have to be willing to fight for their own independence or be willing to live under a Chinese authoritarian government. Not a single drop of American blood should be spilled if the Taiwanese themselves are unwilling to serve in their own military and fight for and earn the right to live under a democratic form of government.

I think the people of Taiwan need to prove and show they are willing to fight and defend their own country first by training hard and being ready for war and also fighting hard and putting their own lives on the line for their own country before the U.S. should be willing to send its own military to help out. If they aren't willing to fight for their own freedom, then we shouldn't sell them a single weapon and just let China have Taiwan in my opinion.

[Rugoz]

No. A lot of Americans and Europeans want to make the decision for Taiwan, by unilaterally recognizing their independence.

This is bullshit. Those countries do not deviate from the one-China policy. As for the "lot of Americans and Europeans", I'm sure none of them want to take the decision away from Taiwan, but to enable it in the first place. Only if the constant threat of Chinese aggression would cease, Taiwanese would actually be free to decide on independence.

It's the CCP that gives a shit about what the Taiwanese want, other than how it affects the difficulty of lording over them. That's consistent with their ideology.

The State Department bureaucrats, maybe.

Nonsense. The US could be far more provocative if it wanted to. By joining the handful a tiny countries that recognize Taiwan's independence for example.

No. Is Christian nationalism a part of the Republican program? No.

Can you find mainstream voices in the Republican Party calling for Christian nationalism and biblical law? Yes. Can you find mainstream voices in the DPP calling for a Taiwanese declaration of independence and hosting of US military base? Yes.

What is this bullshit supposed to mean? The DPP won't/cannot decide those things, certainly not without referendum, hence your fear-mongering has no basis.

[Fasces]

A lot of Americans and Europeans want to make the decision for Taiwan, by unilaterally recognizing their independence.

This is bullshit.

The US could be far more provocative if it wanted to. By joining the handful a tiny countries that recognize Taiwan's independence for example.

[Rugoz]

USA needs to leave Taiwan alone. They are instigators in this. All they'll do is cause problems because it makes them money and it's US foreign policy.

You're a pathetic fool.

[Rugoz]

:lol:

Why is this funny? The US does not, hence it confirms what I'm saying.

Again, I'm not defending this. Taiwan should be allowed to determine its own future. Policy discussions, however, don't deal in 'should' or 'I wish'.

Biden said that “Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence…that’s their decision.” He also said the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if China were to launch an unprovoked attack.

Basically, the US provides the necessary framework for Taiwan to make its own decision. You should welcome it, yet you're shilling for China.

[Fasces]

A lot of Americans and Europeans want to make the decision for Taiwan

The US [should] recognize Taiwan's independence for example.

[Politics_Observer]

@Fasces

Here is an article that discusses reasons for China wanting to take Taiwan and the Taiwanese view.

Why does China want Taiwan?

There's a few reasons here.

The key ones are that China wants to reinforce its dominance as a global superpower and consolidate its power.

China published a white paper (a term used for a government report or authoritative guide) called The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era.

In it, China said reunifying with Taiwan was the only way to:

"...foil the attempts of external forces to contain China, and to safeguard the sovereignty, security, and development interests of our country."

This would fuel the Chinese government's push for rising nationalism.

There's also the matter of Taiwan's geography — being able to set up bases further into the Pacific Ocean would extend China's military reach and intimidate nations in the region.

Controlling Taiwan would disrupt the US geographical security concept known as the "island chain strategy", which is essentially a barrier of islands between the Chinese mainland and the Western Pacific ocean.

If China controlled Taiwan, it could then control Asia's major shipping routes, the Australian Institute of International Affairs says.



And let's not forget about money.

Taiwan's gross domestic product was nearly $US790 billion in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook from April.

While it points out this pales in comparison to China's $17.5 trillion, the white paper highlights the economic advantages of reclaiming Taiwan:

"Taiwan boasts a high level of economic growth, industries with distinctive local features, and robust foreign trade.

"Its economy is highly complementary with that of the mainland."

On top of this, China says there are "profound historical and cultural ties" with Taiwan, which it says dates back to at least 230AD.

The white paper says it's an "indisputable fact" that Taiwan is part of China:

"The fact that we have not yet been reunified is a scar left by history on the Chinese nation."

China says it wants a peaceful reunification and a "One Country, Two Systems" approach which it says would protect the rights of Taiwanese citizens who would "enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region".

And yet, the white paper warns China will take "drastic measures" to reclaim the island as a last resort to "compelling circumstances":

"... we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures."


What do Taiwanese people think?

During his address at the National Press Club earlier this week, China's ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian said he believed the "majority of the people in Taiwan believe they're Chinese".

But a poll by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council last year says that's not the case.

It found only 1.6 per cent of Taiwanese people said they supported unification with China.

However, only 6.8 per cent said Taiwan should declare independence as soon as possible.

Most people — a whopping 84.9 per cent — supported maintaining the "status quo".

Why wouldn't Taiwan want to be part of China?

Taiwan democratically elects its leaders, so citizens have a say on the local laws and how the self-ruled island is run.

China is an authoritarian state run by the Communist party — a very different and much more restrictive system of government.

There's also the complicated history of China and Taiwan.

Early last century, civil war raged between the ruling Nationalists (Republic of China) and Communists (People's Republic of China).

After losing the war decades later, the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan in 1949, but continued to maintain it was the legitimate government of the whole of China — and it continues to do so in the Constitution of the Republic of China.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-12/ ... /101321856

Given China's actions in Hong Kong, I don't believe for a second that China would give Taiwan any sort of autonomous rule. The Chinese government said the same thing about Hong Kong and never honored that promise. But on the same token, Taiwanese people have to show a willingness to fight and die for their own democracy too before the US should be willing to assist Taiwan. There is no sense in assisting a country that is unwilling to help itself.

[Fasces]

An article by Danielle Maguire, an Australian, seeks to speak for the Chinese on the reasons why they want to reunify China.

Why not seek out some actual Chinese opinions if you want to understand their point of view? Does everything need to filtered by a Western, in this case the Australian, government for you?

Here's an example: the US recently floated a plan to bomb or destroy all TMSC fabs in Taiwan in the event to an escalation of hostilities with China. It was argued that destroying the assets may minimize China desire to take Taiwan, protecting it. This proposal fundamentally misunderstands Chinese motivations regarding the island. The DPP, who do understand, rejected it.

[Politics_Observer]

@Fasces

You can't take what people say just at face value, you have to judge the situation based on the present facts and you also have to judge the Chinese based on their actions instead of their words. And their actions in Hong Kong demonstrate their words should not be trusted when they make a claim why they want to do something for a specific reason.

[Fasces]

If you don't actually talk to Chinese people on the mainland, you won't understand the issue. There is no difference in the way the CPC or the average Chinese views Taiwan than how the average American views Hawaii. This extends to the Chinese leadership, and especially Xi. The most liberal and radical of them will view Taiwan similar to how you view Puerto Rico - maybe willing to let them go peacefully if they wish, but do you consider Puerto Rico not part of the US, or would you tolerate Chinese negotiating bilaterally with the Puerto Rican government?

I can't force you to grasp this, but you simply do not understand the dispute if you don't.

一天可能你可以。

The strategic stuff matters, of course - but it isn't the driver of the conflict. I understand the strategic value of Taiwan, and its role in US Pacific policy. I am not denying that. I am just telling you that it isn't the most important reason, and that the Chinese would pursue Taiwan absent any strategic value. I graduated from the Elliot School with a BA in International Relations specializing in Conflict Studies. We talked about Taiwan, believe me.