[Typhoon]

It would deny Taiwan their main benefactors, the US is not a great fan of others going nuclear.

[Mircea]

Why is Taiwan not trying to obtain some nuclear weapons ?

What would be the point?

Once the Old Guard is dead and gone --- effectively their version of the Silent Generation and the Boomer Generation --- Taiwan will peacefully unite with China.

The Chinese government seems to be assertive rather than aggressive, arrogant, or stupid, even when they are being provoked. Taiwan is Chinese too, and it will be absorbed by mainland China gradually and peacefully, any military action by Beijing could do nothing else than hinder the process.

Wow, someone actually has a clue. I'm impressed. Your analysis is spot on.

As China continues to expand economically, with their 300 Million-man Middle Class becoming more Middle Class, that will be an attraction to Taiwan, who will not be wanting to go into decline like the US.

[Classicliberal]

Once the Old Guard is dead and gone --- effectively their version of the Silent Generation and the Boomer Generation --- Taiwan will peacefully unite with China.

I don't see that all. Maybe if the economy falters and mainland China becomes their sole saving grace but, from what I've seen, the youth generation there is heavily pro-democracy. And given the precedents being set in Hong Kong with regard to Beijing's rigging of democratic elections and infringement on Hong Kong's political self governance, it doesn't seem like a union with mainland China would be the best bet for the future of a democratic Taiwan; or at least, a Taiwan with any democratic integrity. Ironically, I think the CCP's increasingly nationalist rhetoric and propaganda just serves to connect them with the character of the KMT and will serve to embolden an anti-unification stance among the general population.

That being said, the Republic of China is a highly competent technocracy (and police state) and will probably find away to subvert Taiwan's actual wishes and unify it to the mainland, eventually; especially, though, if a power vacuum is left by a full or sizable reduction of US presence in the region, which could indeed happen over the next decade.

As China continues to expand economically, with their 300 Million-man Middle Class becoming more Middle Class, that will be an attraction to Taiwan, who will not be wanting to go into decline like the US.

For all the current strengths China possess at the moment, a burgeoning middle class will probably be its long term political liability. With economic growth slowing already and inevitably more reduction in the future, the CCP either has to find a new way to acquiesce the lack of political representation it affords to its people--up until now that was 10% growth rates for 30 years, richer Chinese=Chinese who put up with authoritarian government--or face growing demands for democratization in the face of regime intransigence regarding middle class issues.

Long story short, its not a given America is in permanent decline, nor is China's prosperity secured for the future.