[Atlantis]

The German Spiegel Online carries an interview with Volker Rühe (CDU), German defense minister in the Kohl cabinet, in which he claims that Russia can only develop into a modern state if it cooperates with the West and that cooperation with China is not an option. Rühe also believes that Nato East expansion increased stability in Europe and that, in the context of German reunification, no guarantees were given to Russia about Nato East expansion. He thinks Russia is part of the West and still believes in a "security structure" from the Atlantic to Vladivostok.

In another article, Uwe Klußmann claims that there are behind the scenes efforts for a "military and political cooperation" between Russia and China. The article also quotes the party organ of the CCP, Renmin Ribao, as saying that in view of the spirit of "the cold war" emanating from Ukraine, "the strategic rapprochement between China and Russia becomes an anchor of World stability." The articles further quotes the Chinese state media Global Times as saying: "Putin makes the US and the EU look like paper tigers, ... the West has underestimated Russia's determination to defend its key interests in Ukraine, ... the strategy of the West to support a pro-Western government in Ukraine ... has led to chaos, ... the West doesn't have the capacity or the wisdom to solve this problem, ... the West will be the looser of this fiasco, ... we cannot disappoint Russia when it finds itself in difficulties ... China needs to be a dependable partner."

The article further notes that China is a major destination for Russian arms exports and that, in view of the current conflict, Russia would no longer be bound by concerns in Washington about supplying the Chinese with advanced armament systems. Russia would also be able to replace Ukraine as a major arms supplier to China, if a pro-Western government in Kiev were to limit its arms exports.

The Chinese Global Times notes furthers that "For quite a long time in the future, the most strategic pressure will come from the US-led West. This pressure is not only geopolitical but also ideological. China promotes a multipolar world and a powerful Russia can accelerate this, which is much better than a unipolar world led by the US."

The BBC finally quotes political scientist Wang Yiwei in Haiwai Net as saying "that although the stand-off between Russia and the West could slow down global economic recovery, China could only benefit from the confrontation.

The revival of Russia will help relieve China's strategic pressure. US energy and economic sanctions against Russia will be a favorable factor in speeding up negotiations with Moscow on energy co-operation and building a strategic partnership," he argues."

In conclusion, I think the West has fallen victim to its own propaganda in believing that Russia has no choice but to Westernize in order to be a successful modern state, and that this precludes any alliance between Russia and China. It is weird that people keep on maintaining this myth even though China is economically very successful without Westernization.

[Solastalgia]

China is economically very successful without Westernization.

This is just plain wrong.

[Atlantis]

Here is an opinion piece from Nicu Popescu in the EUobserver which comes to a different conclusion. Popescu considers that Russia's claim that China is on its side is "spurious." Popescu thinks that the EU's Eastern partnership for the former states of the Russian Federation in Eastern Europe is mirrored by China's "Silk Road" program for the nations of Central Asia. Both programs would join to form a land-bridge between Europe and the Far East. Popescu seems to believe that the common interest between the EU and China is greater than China's alliance with Russia and that the latter is marked by politeness and hypocrisy.

It will be interesting to see who is right. What is interesting to note is that, while the West is demonizing a democratic Russia, it has no qualms about sucking up to the butchers of Tienanmen square.

[benpenguin]

China is economically very successful without complete Westernization.

Fixed?

[Atlantis]

China is economically very successful without complete Westernization.

Fixed?

No, you are probably thinking of "modernization."

I used the term "westernization" as shorthand for what the West expects Russia to do to be a "good" country. For example: grant greater rights to homosexuals, fight corruption, introduce transparent government, introduce legislation that will make it easier for Western corporations to plunder the country, etc.

China has "modernized" without introducing Western values of "transparent government", "democracy", etc. China is even doing very well with a high degree of corruption, which defies all Western theories about the need for transparent government.

This is just plain wrong.

You mean:
a) Westernization? -> see above
b) successful? -> provide name of country which has been more successful in the last 20 years

[Solastalgia]

Better.

[Beren]

Sure, Russia can trade a lot with China and oppose the West together in many cases, but I doubt they will ever be strategic allies, because China will always be out for itself as a basically monolithic entity without strategic alliances, ready to be partners with anybody if necessary. As a matter of fact there are many sources of possible future conflicts between them. Russia's only potential strategic ally is Europe, as Russia is also a European country, and they could complement and strengthen each other pretty much.

[Rei Murasame]

Here is an opinion piece from Nicu Popescu in the EUobserver which comes to a different conclusion. Popescu considers that Russia's claim that China is on its side is "spurious." Popescu thinks that the EU's Eastern partnership for the former states of the Russian Federation in Eastern Europe is mirrored by China's "Silk Road" program for the nations of Central Asia. Both programs would join to form a land-bridge between Europe and the Far East. Popescu seems to believe that the common interest between the EU and China is greater than China's alliance with Russia and that the latter is marked by politeness and hypocrisy.

I think that Popescu has it right. The only reason that China shows politeness to Russia, is because Chinese SOEs want to get control of resource extraction in Siberia and have been largely successful at doing so.

If the EU is hostile toward Russia, then it forces Russia to rely more on China economically, which strengthens China's position against Russia, while China can then pursue its interests in cooperating with the EU as well.

[Atlantis]

Sure, Russia can trade a lot with China and oppose the West together in many cases, but I doubt they will ever be strategic allies, because China will always be out for itself as a basically monolithic entity without strategic alliances, ready to be partners with anybody if necessary. As a matter of fact there are many sources of possible future conflicts between them. Russia's only potential strategic ally is Europe, as Russia is also a European country, and they could complement and strengthen each other pretty much.

I agree that it would be in the interest of both Europe and Russia to form a strategic alliance and a free trade zone; however, the EU's Eastern Partnership program which aims at drawing Ukraine and other countries away from Russia has made this impossible. It doesn't matter if this is due to the incompetent bungling of the so-called EU foreign policy or if it is due to transatlantic forces throwing a spanner into the works. The result is the same.

What are the "many sources of possible future conflicts between" Russia and China? I can only see complementary. China needs strong allies in its inevitable conflict with the US. China is virtually encircled by US allies in the Pacific Rim. The only way out is by land through Central Asia. That is the meaning of China's "Silk Road" strategy, China's "march West" and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), in which China and Russia are the most important members.

Moreover, Russia has the oil and gas resources China needs to solve its environmental problems by getting away from burning coal, while China has the technology and financial clout Russia needs to modernize and develop its huge country. Russia still has a formidable arms industry that can help China's military build-up. The Chinese aren't going to bother Putin about homosexuals or civil rights either.

I think that Popescu has it right. The only reason that China shows politeness to Russia, is because Chinese SOEs want to get control of resource extraction in Siberia and have been largely successful at doing so.

The object of business is not politeness. Popescu is just a letter writer who has never done a business deal in his life. Of course, China needs Russian gas and oil, just like Russia needs to diversify its client base away from Europe towards the Far East. Both are complementary. Moreover, both have the same "enemy". Already forgotten the Senkaku islands?

[Beren]

What are the "many sources of possible future conflicts between" Russia and China?

The most apparent ones are China's massive economic and demographic expansion into Siberia as well as the upcoming or ongoing rivalry in Central Asia. The growing magnitude gap will also embarrass the Russians. They will feel the same towards the Chinese as they feel towards the Americans, or maybe worse.

[Rei Murasame]

The object of business is not politeness.

But the object of politeness is business.

Popescu is just a letter writer who has never done a business deal in his life.

He has it more right than you think, though. There is a psychological effect that makes people more likely to let you do something, if you create an atmosphere where they feel that you are non-threatening. Until you are ready to become a threat.

Of course, China needs Russian gas and oil, just like Russia needs to diversify its client base away from Europe towards the Far East.

But neither of them need to do any of those things.

To quote the article I linked to:

[...] China is also the main investor in Siberia and Eastern Russia, investments that are critical to Russia’s becoming the independent Asian great power that it dreams of becoming. Russia’s many manifestations of ‘illegitimate governance’ rent-seeking, corruption, criminality, malfeasance, and hostility to foreign investment have multiplied the difficulties for all investors, including China. Nevertheless Beijing persists for strategic reasons, i.e. the need for a quiescent Russia on its north and for Siberian energy supplies that go to it alone and therefore bypass Japan or South Korea and the Strait of Malacca.

Consequently on issues of Asian regional security from the Arctic to the South China Sea and Central Asia it is easy to discern rivalry, growing Russian anxieties about Chinese power, and Chinese encroachment on Russian. Indeed, arguably despite China’s increased aggressiveness vis-à-vis Japan, the United States (US), Southeast Asia, and India, it has only succeeded in making enduring strategic gains against Russia. In Central Asia Chinese economic power, as displayed in numerous huge deals for infrastructure, energy pipelines, telecommunications, roads, railways, energy pipelines, minerals, etc. has eclipsed Russia. According to Alexandros Petersen of the US’ Woodrow Wilson Center, China is already the most powerful and consequential foreign actor in Central Asia and this author and Barnard University Professor Alexander Cooley have argued along similar lines.

In the Arctic Russian energy explorations now depend on deals with China. Meanwhile China has leapt ahead in commercial exploitation of the Northern Sea Route. Russia unsuccessfully opposed Chinese observer status in the Arctic Council and the recent People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) circumnavigation of the Sea of Japan, hitherto a Russo-Japanese lake, and the purchase of the North Korean ports of Rajin-Sonborg and Chongjin, plus its investments and interests in other North Korean ports signify not just China’s burgeoning interest in the Arctic but also its eclipsing of Russia in regard to influence and presence in North Korea.

[...]

Nevertheless Moscow’s capacity of conducting an independent policy in Asia towards China is also gradually being eroded. It already had to build the East Siberian Pacific Ocean oil pipeline exclusively to China, and the recent mammoth energy deals with Rosneft have made that company almost a wholly owned subsidiary of China incorporated. This may line Igor Sechin and his retainers’ and Putin’s pockets, but energy deals and pipelines to one customer hardly gratify Russian interests. Similarly Russia is losing the battle to sell China gas at market prices. Its alternative of a trans-Korean pipeline has gone nowhere and Putin now discusses building an underwater pipeline to South Korea.

China demands below market prices for Russian gas and does not need to buy it, and if Russia cannot sell its Siberian and Asian gas those resources will be ‘stranded’ in the ground. [...]

[mikema63]

At this point I'm confounded by the idea that China isn't tied up with the west.

In what scenario is China going to do something that significantly harms the west and wrecks their own economy?

[Atlantis]

The most apparent ones are China's massive economic and demographic expansion into Siberia as well as the upcoming or ongoing rivalry in Central Asia. The growing magnitude gap will also embarrass the Russians. They will feel the same towards the Chinese as they feel towards the Americans, or maybe worse.

Unlike the US/Nato in eastern Europe, China does not project military power into Central Asia and Russia does not feel threatened by economic development since it benefits the whole region including Russia. There is no significant competition between them in any economic field. On the contrary, there is a lot of potential for mutually beneficial development. And unlike the EU, China does not require its trading partners to compromise its trade links with Russia.

But the object of politeness is business.

The object of politeness is civil society.

But neither of them need to do any of those things.

In business you always need to do what is of mutual benefit, e.g., exchange fuel against equipment and investment.

The psychological interpretation/demolition of Putin or "the Russian" in the Western media is for propagandist purposes. It would be self-defeating to believe our own propaganda.

Re. your quoted piece, Chinese business and political leaders are very comfortable dealing with corruption abroad and at home. Why should they not want to deal with corruption in Russia? And why should Russia object to Chinese investments in Russia or Central Asia?

Militarily, China is encircled by the US presence in the East, just like Russia is encircled by US/Nato forces in the West. Why should China want to antagonize Russia which is its only possible ally?

On the commercial front, Russian interests are threatened by EU East expansion while Chinese interests are threatened by a series of bilateral free trade agreements (TTIP, TPP, etc.) the US intends to 'isolate' China.

In what scenario is China going to do something that significantly harms the west and wrecks their own economy?

False dichotomy. The Chinese don't want to harm the West, but they will defend their global interests. If the competition for resources means they have to take some losses, that is what they'll do. Anyways, Western markets are shrinking while non-Western markets are expanding. The Chinese will be where the growth is in the emerging markets and the Third World.

[Atlantis]

Here is the latest Reuters news about Russian business with China, Japan and India.

Putin looks to Asia as West threatens to isolate Russia

(Reuters) - When President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty this week annexing Crimea to great fanfare in the Kremlin and anger in the West, a trusted lieutenant was making his way to Asia to shore up ties with Russia's eastern allies.
...
The underlying message from the head of Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, was clear: If Europe and the United States isolate Russia, Moscow will look East for new business, energy deals, military contracts and political alliances.

The Holy Grail for Moscow is a natural gas supply deal with China that is apparently now close after years of negotiations. If it can be signed when Putin visits China in May, he will be able to hold it up to show that global power has shifted eastwards and he does not need the West.

"The worse Russia's relations are with the West, the closer Russia will want to be to China. If China supports you, no one can say you're isolated," said Vasily Kashin, a China expert at the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) think thank.
...
A strong alliance would suit both countries as a counterbalance to the United States.
...
State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.
...
"The bottom line is that the threat of sanctions on energy supplies from Russia has indirectly strengthened China's position in the negotiations," Nesterov said.
...
However, China overtook Germany as Russia's biggest buyer of crude oil this year thanks to Rosneft securing deals to boost eastward oil supplies via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and another crossing Kazakhstan.
...
CAST's Kashin said the prospects of Russia delivering Sukhoi SU-35 fighter jets to China, which has been under discussion since 2010, would grow.

China is very interested in investing in infrastructure, energy and commodities in Russia, and a decline in business with the West could force Moscow to drop some of its reservations about Chinese investment in strategic industries.
...
DILEMMA FOR JAPAN, SUPPORT IN INDIA

Sechin, whose visit also included India, Vietnam and South Korea, is a close Putin ally who worked with him in the St Petersburg city authorities and then the Kremlin administration, before serving as a deputy prime minister.

In Tokyo, he offered Japanese investors more cooperation in the development of Russian oil and gas.

Rosneft already has some joint projects with companies from Japan, the world's largest consumer of LNG, and Tokyo has been working hard under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to improve ties with Moscow, despite a territorial dispute dating from World War Two.

But Japan faces a dilemma over Crimea because it is under pressure to impose sanctions on Moscow as a member of the Group of Seven advanced economies.

It does not recognize the referendum on Crimea's union with Russia and has threatened to suspend talks on an investment pact and relaxation of visa requirements as part of sanctions.

Closer ties are being driven by mutual energy interests. Russia plans to at least double oil and gas flows to Asia in the next 20 years and Japan imports huge volumes of fossil fuel to replace lost energy from its nuclear power industry, shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies.
...
"I don't think Putin is worried much by about what is said in Japan or even in Europe. He worries only about China," said Alexei Vlasov, head of the Information and Analytical Center on Social and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space.

Putin did take time, however, to thank one other country apart from China for its understanding over Ukraine and Crimea - saying India had shown "restraint and objectivity".

He also called Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to discuss the crisis on Tuesday, suggesting there is room for Russia's ties with traditionally non-aligned India to flourish.
...
Putin's moves to assert Russian control over Crimea were seen very favorably in the Indian establishment, N. Ram, publisher of The Hindu newspaper, told Reuters. "Russia has legitimate interests," he added.
..
He said at the time he wanted stronger business ties with China to "catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy". But he also said Russia must be "part of the greater world" and added: "We do not wish to and cannot isolate ourselves."

[mikema63]

I'm not making a dichotomy, I'm saying that they've already chosen. They bought american and European debt, and we've invested in each other's economies.

It's not so easy to disentangle economies as you seem to believe.

Also, lol at the decline of the west meme, as if china didn't have its own structural problems to deal with and third world powers weren't entirely dependent on the west for their growth.

[Atlantis]

They bought american and European debt, and we've invested in each other's economies.

The Russians too have bought US debts and we have invested in each others economies.

It's not so easy to disentangle economies as you seem to believe.

That is not at all what I think. Mutual trade dependence reduces risk of military conflict. That is why we need more trade with Moscow and use more Russian gas an oil.

if china didn't have its own structural problems to deal with

The West likes to focus on China's problem while ignoring its own problems. When it comes to it, the Chinese may be better at solving their problems than we at solving ours.

and third world powers weren't entirely dependent on the west for their growth.

How so? If China imports resources from the Third World and, in exchange, exports manufactured goods or builds infrastructure in the Third World, do they need permission from uncle Sam?

[xizhimen]

Based on the fact that western Europe heavily depends on Russian oil,gas and other vital industrial resources, sanctioning Russia will definitely end up hurting themselves more in the long run. Russian resources are the single biggest in the world which will be fiercely competed in the future. once the west forced Russia to switch its reliance from them to China.it'll take decades for the west to get their share back,if they can get that back at all. what the west is doing now is surely to play into the hands of China.

[Atlantis]

Based on the fact that western Europe heavily depends on Russian oil,gas and other vital industrial resources, sanctioning Russia will definitely end up hurting themselves more in the long run. Russian resources are the single biggest in the world which will be fiercely competed in the future. once the west forced Russia to switch its reliance from them to China.it'll take decades for the west to get their share back,if they can get that back at all. what the west is doing now is surely to play into the hands of China.

I absolutely agree! Europe needs to form a strategic partnership with Russia. A culturally divided Ukraine will for ever be a burden and source of conflict. Only cooperation between Russia and Europe can solve the crisis in Ukraine. And Russian resources against European technology is a win-win situation.

It is not too late yet. So far, sanctions are purely symbolic and relations can still be mended. In fact, when the dust settles, we may even realize that relations are not at all damaged because commercial interests are overwhelmingly strong on both sides. In addition to Europe's energy dependence on Russia, there are about 7,000 German companies operating in Russia and Russia is scheduled to overtake the US as export market for German goods.

Moreover, an independent Europe free of US domination will even be in the interest of China which favors a multipolar over a US-dominated World.

[Typhoon]

Absolutely, Russia long ago solved its major territorial conflicts with China and concerns around the threat of an expanding future China are dampened by Russia's robust military capabilities. As the US aided by certain actors seeks to maintain its global position by isolating up-coming powers like China and Russia, they will only be pushed closer together, mutually beneficial cooperation will inevitable rise.

I also see no benefit for Europe in isolating itself from Russia and missing the opportunities of closer integration, ultimately cooler heads in France and Germany will prevail.

[Atlantis]

Here is an article entitled China reaffirms strategic partnership in Russia from Russia beyond the headlines that provides some more details about Russia's relations with China:

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow ended in over 30 economic agreements being signed, although the nature of the bilateral relationship is political, as well. China seeks a partner in the Asia-Pacific, where rhetoric on the “Chinese threat” is rising, and Russia wants political cooperation, which is lacking in its relations with the U.S.

Despite the long list of trade agreements, the visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia bore a more political nature. After his inauguration, President Vladimir Putin made visiting Beijing his top priority last summer. In turn, having been sworn in as Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping flew straight to Moscow.

The critical importance of bilateral relations is evidently understood by both sides. Further proof is in the following passage from the joint statement issued after the talks on March 22-24 in Moscow: "Both countries will decisively support each other on issues relating to their core interests, including matters of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security."

Developing this proclamation, the Chinese leader said in a speech to students at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) that, "China and Russia should strengthen strategic cooperation in the international arena."

China is clearly rattled that Washington's doctrinal statements on increasing its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region are being implemented after just one year. The "return" of the U.S. to the Pacific has coincided with a sharp escalation in the territorial disputes between China and Japan, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines.

There has also been a distinct rise in rhetoric surrounding the “Chinese threat,” which is conceived of as not only military, but also economic and environmental (including the issue of natural resources). If not an ally, China needs a like-minded partner at the very least, and Russia is the objective choice.

Russia, too, has a military-strategic motive for strengthening ties with China. At the top of the agenda is missile defense. The meeting between Xi Jinping and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu "noted the mutual concerns of both sides on missile defense" and "recognized the need to continue the dialogue on this issue," stated Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov.

Moscow seems to propose maintaining a balance between political interaction in world affairs and economic ties in bilateral relations. Opening the talks in the Kremlin, Putin stressed that, to sustain the dynamics of the strategic partnership, "the focus needs to be on the most critical issues [...] one of which is the development of economic relations, which is of vital interest for our citizens."

China is already Russia's largest trading partner. In 2012, its slice of Russia's foreign trade amounted to 10.5 percent, while Chinese direct investments in the Russian economy grew by more than 1.5 times to $4.4 billion, with more than $1 billion in the opposite direction. Both countries aspire to cross the $100-billion threshold in bilateral trade by 2015 and the $150-billion line by 2020.

A major part in achieving these milestones will be played by the more than 30 economic agreements signed during the Chinese leader's visit to Moscow. The first was a memorandum on promoting investments in infrastructure projects in the Far East. However, among the most important agreements made was one on the increase of supplies of Russian hydrocarbons to China and the expansion of construction of the new southbound pipeline spurs.

In addition, a long-awaited memorandum on gas supplies to China was signed on the sidelines of Jinping’s visit. This marked the end of 10 years of tortuous negotiations, which had dragged on as parties failed to agree on a price formula.

"The document lays the foundation for a 30-year contract on the supply of gas from Russia to China," said Gazprom head Alexei Miller.
Moreover, China and Russia finally closed a deal to supply 24 Russian Su-35 fighters and jointly construct four Lada-class diesel submarines for the Chinese military, China Central Television reported on March 25.
"It represents China's first procurement of important weapons systems from Russia in a decade," said the bulletin.

Military-technical cooperation, trade in hydrocarbons, and investment in Siberia are also essentially political projects — and not only because of their magnitude. A "safety net" is being created (or, rather, the existing one is being reinforced) for the purpose of political cooperation, which is lacking, for example, in U.S.-Russian relations.

For Russia, however, establishing a formal alliance with the PRC is not a priority — and not because Moscow fears the reaction from abroad.
As demonstrated by last month's approval of its new Foreign Policy Concept, Moscow is certain that international processes depend on there being a multipolar world. According to the Concept, bilateral alliances and 20th-century "axis" politics have no place in the new order. Instead, collective leadership from the major nations is needed. Pride of place will go to informal structures with no charter or standing bodies, such as the G20, the G8, and the BRICS.

It is rather symbolic that, having wrapped up the talks in Moscow, the leaders of Russia and China immediately departed for South Africa to attend the upcoming BRICS summit — in different planes.