Like Brezhnev in Afghanistan, Putin will fail in Syria - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14606744
Not only is this going to turn out very bad for Russia, it's going to reverse all of the West's attempts to turn the tide against IS. They couldn't have hoped for anything more, to bolster their recruitment drive.

While many in Syria absolutely reject Daesh/ISIS and its deviant practices, they will not under any circumstances be throwing rice or flowers onto their newest invaders, if and when ground operations begin. In fact, the public endorsement by the Russian Orthodox Church of the strikes and its description thereof as a “holy war” have given a whole new dimension to the conflict in Syria. No sooner had the church Patriarch Kirill given his blessings to the operations did social media activists across the Middle East call for Muslims to go to Syria’s rescue in the same way that they had rescued Afghanistan in the 1980s.


Source: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/resou ... l-in-syria
#14606751
They have a point, though. Openly declaring it in the media as a 'holy war' waged by Christian Orthodoxy on television, was the most stupid thing they could possibly have done.

It would indeed undo a lot of the work that the west has put into keeping the messages as confusing as possible.

Whenever Orthodox Christians start meddling in anything, it invariably becomes even more fucked up than it was at the start.
#14606752
Rei wrote:They have a point, though. Openly declaring it in the media as a 'holy war' waged by Christian Orthodoxy on television, was the most stupid thing they could possibly have done.


They did what? Now this conflict is becoming surreal.
#14606758
Rei Murasame wrote:They have a point, though. Openly declaring it in the media as a 'holy war' waged by Christian Orthodoxy on television, was the most stupid thing they could possibly have done.

It would indeed undo a lot of the work that the west has put into keeping the messages as confusing as possible.

Whenever Orthodox Christians start meddling in anything, it invariably becomes even more fucked up than it was at the start.

They've never been very good on the propaganda front. Think of it this way, for you it means two groups of Abrahemics are going to kill each other, surely this is what you like most?
#14606775
Istanbuller wrote:It is because all these airstrikes and ground operations radicalize more and more muslims each day.

No doubt IS & JN are receiving massive recruitment boost from this. Surely Turkey can't sit back and watch this happen???

Istanbuller wrote:Currently the US is also losing the game in Afghanistan. Taliban is still the winner side.

Perhaps that's why they let Russia take the lead in Syria, so they can focus back on Afghanistan?
#14606795
It was a smart move of the Russian Orthodox Church to endorse the military actions. It shows that Russia is not afraid to fight for its identity and is not ashamed to be a Christian nation.

It sends a message to ISIS that Russia is not afraid of them and will bury them.

ISIS think they are hardmen but they will tremble when faced with the full Slavic/Ugric/Turkic fury.
#14606804
ISIS are like Germans. They think they are hardmen but their military only finds success against women children and other unarmed civilians and just like the Germans they will find that Russia is a whole different beast. Death to the right wingers and victory to Russians. ISIS are supported, armed and funded by the USA and Israel but the Russians do not fear them and will still triumph.
#14606811
Decky wrote:ISIS are like Germans. They think they are hardmen but their military only finds success against women children and other unarmed civilians and just like the Germans they will find that Russia is a whole different beast. Death to the right wingers and victory to Russians. ISIS are supported, armed and funded by the USA and Israel but the Russians do not fear them and will still triumph.


Indeed, like the Nazis who thought they were hard but when push came to shove could also lose.

The thing is, ISIS try to look hard by being violent, not by actually being tough and sturdy. They think that by killing women, children, burning people alive and cutting off heads that it somehow makes them look brave and strong. In reality it just makes them look like unstable dangerous psychopaths, no different to serial killers or paedophiles. We only fear them in the same way we fear those two in the latter category.
#14606821
There are many ways in which the current conflict differs from Afghanistan. The problem in Afghanistan was after all not a military one but of sustaining the political commitment to the conflict.

The objectives in Syria are much more limited than Afghanistan for Russia, the footprint of the military operation is that much smaller, only a few thousand troops will be on the ground at any one time. A tiny fraction in any sort of a combat role. Such an operation should be easily manageable and its hard to see how the Russians could get bogged down.

The worst that could happen is that the strikes prove ineffective, Assad falls and the Russians have to pull out, which may well have been the end game anyway at this point. A key factor for Russia will be how the ground campaign is influenced by the airstrikes over the next four months.
#14607475
abu_rashid wrote:No doubt IS & JN are receiving massive recruitment boost from this. Surely Turkey can't sit back and watch this happen???

I can't say anything now.

We are heading to the election. Only 26 days left.

If AKP gets the majority to form a government itself, then it will continue supporting rebels and Islamists groups.
#14607482
Doesn't matter, how much people. Thousand or ten thousands, or ten millions, they all war equally effectively when they have no trucks to move them ammo, food and water through the desert. If I were the Faithful, I would pray Allah to drop some stingers or something like that. Without help of Allah, I fear, the faithful will not make it.
#14609350
I am skeptical because Iran and certainly not Russia will put significant ground forces in. Without this it seems unlikely Assad can fully control the whole country. He needs a ruthless strategy ...

Isis are not the problem. The problem is the more moderate elements that still give the opposition some credibility. It doesn't seem like they will be decisively crushed quickly and Isis need to play their part in this new attrition phase.

If both Isis and Assad can reduce the rest to insignificance then clarity can be restored. the narrative will then be Putin vs evil by any standards. How we got there will not matter.
#14609352
layman wrote:Isis are not the problem. The problem is the more moderate elements that still give the opposition some credibility. It doesn't seem like they will be decisively crushed quickly and Isis need to play their part in this new attrition phase.

There are only ISIS and Al-Qaeda. And thousands of small factions who have sworn allegiance to one or the other. Oh, and, of course, FSA, those stealth troopers nobody can find, who appear only to gift some American weapons to Al-Qaeda again and then vanish again.
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