What US sanctions will do to Russia, Iran and North Korea - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14830084
CNN 12:10 PM ET, Fri August 4, 2017 By Angela Dewan

US President Donald Trump signed into law new sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea on Wednesday, but he had little choice in the matter.

Members of Congress supported the legislation in such overwhelming numbers that they had the power to override the President if he vetoed the legislation, which he described as "seriously flawed."

Here's what you need to know:

Russia sanctions
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Why now?

Congress justified a new set of sanctions against Russia -- and the refinement of existing ones -- because of Moscow's interference in the 2016 US election, its human rights abuses and its military aggression in Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea.

Who's targeted?

The Russian sanctions will target people and entities that:
-- undermine US cybersecurity on behalf of the Russia government
-- invest certain amounts in Russia's energy export pipelines
-- conduct "significant" transactions with Russian defense and intelligence agencies (though this will come into effect six months from now)
-- commit, or assist in, serious human rights abuses
-- commit acts of "significant" corruption
-- provide support to the Syrian government to acquire arms
-- invest, or facilitate the investment of, $10 million or more in the Russian government's privatization of state-owned assets in a 12-month period that could "unjustly" benefit government officials or their associates.

What are the sanctions?

The law includes a list of sanctions, which include freezing assets, such as property, revoking US visas and banning exports from the United States to sanctioned people or entities. In certain cases, the President must impose at least five types of sanctions on a person or entity.

What's the fallout?

For Russia, the new law limits the US President's power to unilaterally ease or waive most sanctions without the approval of Congress. This shift of power is central to Trump's resentment for this law, he indicated on Wednesday, arguing that the law encroached on the executive's authority. The President claimed after signing the bill into law that he could "make far better deals with foreign countries than Congress."

The White House said in a statement that the law includes "a number of clearly unconstitutional provisions" that "purport to displace the President's exclusive constitutional authority to recognize foreign governments, including their territorial bounds."

The new law has all but crushed hopes of the reset in US-Russia relations that both Trump and Putin had openly called for. Moscow retaliated after the bill passed Congress, ordering the US to cut staff at its diplomatic mission by 755 people.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also said the sanctions showed a "fully-fledged trade war" had been declared against Russia and that "the Trump administration demonstrated complete impotence, in the most humiliating manner, transferring executive powers to Congress."

Iran sanctions
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Why now?

US officials say that Iran has continued to test and develop ballistic missiles, in what Washington and its European allies say are in violation of a UN Security Council Resolution. As recently as July, the US State Department criticized Iran for continuing to develop its ballistic missile program, but did not give details of when or how they did so.

US officials have also accused Iran of supporting groups that Washington has designated as terrorist organizations, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and violent groups, including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, arguing the country is threatening to destabilize the Middle East.

In mid-July, the Trump administration sanctioned 18 people and entities, under existing laws, for non-nuclear reasons, such as supporting ballistic missile development.

The US State Department at the time accused Iran of propping up the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "despite Assad's atrocities against his own people" and arming Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Who's targeted?

The sanctions center around the country's ballistic missile program, human rights abuses and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC, which is sanctioned under other laws, has been slapped with terrorism-related sanctions for the first time and is essentially now blacklisted by the US.

The new law says the IRGC is behind Iran's international destabilization program, including international terrorism and the ballistic missile program.
The law directs the President to impose sanctions on people or entities that:

-- are members of the IRGC and foreign persons that are officials, agents, or affiliates of the IRGC
-- knowingly engage in activity that contributes to or facilitates the ballistic missile or weapons of mass destruction programs. This includes anyone who manufactures, transfers or even transports these capabilities.
-- are serious human rights abusers, including those responsible for extrajudicial killings and torture. It also includes gross violations of international human rights against people who seek to expose illegal government activity, or those trying to obtain or promote international human rights. Sanctions can be applied to anyone supporting such abuses.
-- contribute to the supply, sale or transfer of certain weapons to or from Iran. These include battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, combat aircraft, warships and missiles, among others. Those contributing financial assistance or services related to these weapons can also be sanctioned.

What are the sanctions?

The sanctions include the blocking of property, exclusion from entering the United States and the freezing of transactions with people subject to sanctions.

What's the fallout?

Iranian officials have accused the United States of using the sanctions to undermine the Iran nuclear deal.

The landmark 2015 nuclear deal signed by the United States, three European powers, Russia and China obliged Iran to scale back its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions.

President Trump has long criticized the agreement and vowed to pull the country out of it during his election campaign.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi warned that the "hostile" US measures would impact the implementation of the nuclear deal and said Tehran reserved the right to respond, according to state news agency IRNA.

North Korea sanctions
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Why now?

North Korea has dramatically ratcheted up its ballistic missiles testing in recent months, and last week it tested its longest-range missile yet -- one that experts say could reach the US mainland.

The pariah state has warned that it could deliver a nuclear warhead on one of these missiles, prompting the US to respond with tests of its missile intercept system, THAAD, and bomber runs over the Korean Peninsula with the South Koreans.

Some of the new measures will sanction foreign entities doing business with North Korea, which could be a way of the US putting more pressure on China to stop economic activity with the country. China is the country's biggest trading partner.

Who's targeted?

The sanctions relate to the country's missile testing, human rights abuses and financial institutions. There is already a long list of sanctions against North Korea imposed by the UN Security Council, and the new law tightens and modifies some of those.

Of the new additions, the President is directed to impose sanctions on people or entities that:

-- maintain correspondent accounts with North Korean financial institutions, with some exceptions
-- purchase or acquire significant amounts of certain metals and minerals form North Korea, including gold, copper and silver, as well as textiles
-- sell or transfer to North Korea significant amounts of rocket, aviation or jet fuel, crude oil, petroleum or natural gas, with some exceptions for humanitarian purposes
-- engage in online commercial activities of the North Korean government, including online gambling.

What are the sanctions?

The law reiterates existing sanctions on North Korea, such as asset blocking, including property, and the revocation of license for certain financial transactions.

The law also calls on the Secretary of State to submit a decision to Congress on whether North Korea should be designated a state sponsor of terrorism.

What's the fallout?

US sanctions are rarely a surprise to North Korea, and there is little left to target with future sanctions.

A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday that the US was imposing new sanctions "with the sole and impudent intention to use it as a means to seek its own interests."

"The US threat to impose extreme sanctions on ... (North Korea) only increases the latter's vigilance and stamina, and strengthens the resolve of its people to build a powerful socialist country by dint of self-reliance and self-development."

Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert from Kookmin University in Seoul, said that the new sanctions were unlikely to have a major impact on North Korea.
"If we are talking about denuclearization, let's be frank -- nothing is going to work. (The) North Korean government is determined to remain nuclear, and it will remain nuclear. Period. If it means massive economic disaster, they will not care," Lankov told CNN.

He said it was too early to say whether the sanctions would hurt the China-North Korea relationship, but he said it would likely do "serious damage" to US-China relations.




So it appears sanctions will now go into effect. Judging from the response of the countries effected by these measure, there are actually serious. As prior sanctions, that were imposed on Russia for example never really produced a serious rhetoric from Russian representatives for example.

It is also interesting to note that this bill ties Trumps hands and executive branch for a considerable time, until maybe new congress gets elected that perhaps will be filled with people who are politically more aligned to Trump.
#14830311
Political Interest wrote:Sanctions are utterly pointless. They will increase nationalistic sentiment in these countries and make anti-Western feelings worse. Sanctions are childish. You will see that nothing will change in any of the targeted countries.



This is the exactly the point of those sanctions

to Isolate those countries even further
#14830312
Zionist Nationalist wrote:This is the exactly the point of those sanctions

to Isolate those countries even further


It's a waste of time. You may as well reach an accomodation with them to ensure global stability. Trying to get them to submit to the Western global order is not going to work because the people in them are not going to suddenly embrace the West. When Russia tried being pro-Western twenty years ago it got absolutey nothing in return.
#14830315
Why do not all countries embrace the glory of globalism and the Western way? We offer them human rights which means they have the right to accept global capitalism or we kill them. What could be more reasonable?
#14830393
Sanctions have a point. The great country America is the one which all know as the defender of free world worldwide. The US is either going to do with declaring war on these countries or sanctoning to get them punished. It would be so good if The US is followed by Britain, European Union and Australia.

I don't count Canada on this list because it is already a lost case.
#14830401
The only thing sanctions do is boost self reliance and sufficiency in countries under sanctions. Along side increasing hostility ofcourse.

BTW. Those sanctions against Iran are counter to the nuclear deal, so basically the US just guaranteed that its image stays as the backstabbing untrustworthy country it is which will only boost the parties against any dealings with US in Iran both left and right wing parties and coalitions.
#14830436
@Oxymandias
Sure, but that would depend, do you think the US will just stand back or will it attack Iran ? Its already fighting a proxy war with it.
And plus, if we cant develop any type of weapons, nor do any research because the US doesn't like it. Then fuck the US, we need to push our selves ahead and the US and all its fuck puppets can go fuck themselves as far as we're concerned.
We shouldn't compromise, nor give in to anything that doesn't benifit us in both the short and long term.

And let me tell you something to remember. Iran is setting on nearly half the world's oil reserves, and the US wants control over it.
If you think you can just move along without the US coming at your door, then you're out for a ride bro.

Why do you think the Shah was installed ? Was it because they wanted to control the Iranian mountains ? Or out of love for us ? No, they wanted the oil and the traitor gave it to them.
As far as they're concerned, our lives and our country doesn't matter. What matters for the warmongering savages in charge of the US is absolute control and dominance over the resources in the region.
#14830440
@anasawad

I absolutely agree. However I don't know how to deal with the US, especially Trump. That's why I chose a "stay-away-from-the-US-as-much-as-possible" approach but as you have shown, that isn't viable. As much as I despise the government given how corrupt and annoying it is, at least it makes an effort to take care of Iran and the Iranian people.

So how do we deal with the US? I wish Iran had the same amount of territory as it did during the Sassanid Empire, a combination of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and the countries of Central Asia. Then we would have enough economic power, political power, and human resources create a defense against the US. But that would be nearly unmanageable and it would be impossible to conquer that much territory without the US stepping in.
#14830442
We don't need to expand that much. We have the advantage of being surrounded by mountain ranges, thus having advantage in ground war.
We have Hormuz strait that we can leverage on. And we have control over half the region through proxy. We should leverage all of those cards, and really push forward with it.
And most importantly, we need to continue the nuclear program, The ballistic missiles program, and finally expand the space program further more.
Thats the only way to guarantee safety, as no matter what treaty or deal we sign with the US, they already have a long history of backstabbing and breaking treaties and conventions so they cant be trusted and you cant count on any type of treaty you sign with them.
#14830443
@anasawad

I absolutely agree.

The problem is that not only are we not utilizing the influence we have over Syria and Iraq which can be used to stabilize the regions, but we also aren't using the fact that two of the biggest powers in the Middle East are politically unstable. Turkey and Egypt are going through political turmoil and we can use this fact to easily influence and gain power of these countries. We can do this by creating and sponsoring political parties and coups that are loyal to Iran thus making Egypt and Turkey Iranian puppet states. Eventually we can annex them as a part of Iran. The same will be done to Iraq and Syria

However we won't abuse Turkey or Egypt unlike the US does often. Turkey and Egypt, through Iranian policies and open borders with each other, Syria, Iraq, and Iran would gain stable governments, a large degree of autonomy, a large amount of economic growth, and lots of jobs. By doing this we can gain the economic power, political power, and human resources necessary to rebuild our military and achieve superpower status.

****

Don't forget, we need to reform our military. We don't need to spend more money on it or make it bigger, that isn't necessary. What we need is to build a strong army full of highly experienced veterans and strategically place them in choke points all over Iran. The goal is not to defeat the US, the would be impossible, but to make it so that occupying Iran is not worth it and too resource and time-consuming for the US to bother to go about taking over Iran.
#14830453
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert from Kookmin University in Seoul, said that the new sanctions were unlikely to have a major impact on North Korea.
"If we are talking about denuclearization, let's be frank -- nothing is going to work. (The) North Korean government is determined to remain nuclear, and it will remain nuclear. Period. If it means massive economic disaster, they will not care," Lankov told CNN.


This Russian academic may have spent too much time in South Korea and he's influenced by how South Korea sees North Korea on this matter or he's acting as the mouthpiece of South Korea. North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapons, if they actually have any, as long as conditions are met. I do suspect that we have been deceived by North Korean propaganda and North Korea may not have an atomic bomb at all. North Korea uses fake weapons in military parades and North Korea patched together pieces of video from all the failed tests, pretended the submarine-launched missile launch actually worked. It's reasonable to assume that there is something suspicious about underground nuclear tests as well.
Last edited by ThirdTerm on 05 Aug 2017 22:04, edited 1 time in total.
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