[ingliz]

Anyone want to bet against the Russians caving and be begging for a ceasefire in about a week?

If Russia gets what it wants out of this war in about a week - Ukraine fucked up, NATO membership off the board, the annexation of the Donbas, and a secure water supply for Crimea - why wouldn't they ask for a ceasefire?

[ingliz]

^

The talks appear to be heading that way.

[Rugoz]

If Russia gets what it wants out of this war in about a week - Ukraine fucked up, NATO membership off the board, the annexation of the Donbas, and a secure water supply for Crimea - why wouldn't they ask for a ceasefire?

I love a the Putler-lovers are already trying to cope with a possible defeat.

Putler de facto already had Donbas. NATO membership was not on the table. "Water supply for Crimea"?

Let's see. Ukraine forever aligned with the West because hatred for Russia will last for generations. 10k Russian soldiers killed and the Russian military humiliated. Totally worth it.

[MadMonk]

If Russia gets what it wants out of this war in about a week - Ukraine fucked up, NATO membership off the board, the annexation of the Donbas, and a secure water supply for Crimea - why wouldn't they ask for a ceasefire?

Ok, keeping Ukraine out of NATO would be a win and a very likely outcome. How about Sweden and Finland joining? Because it is closer than ever before. How about increased defence spending in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, hell even the Vatican State at this point probably? Will this compromise Russian security?

[Rugoz]

Ok, keeping Ukraine out of NATO would be a win and a very likely outcome.

It's irrelevant. NATO will arm Ukraine to the teeth after this war.

[ingliz]

Putler de facto already had Donbas.

De jure is a whole new ballgame, though. After the treaty is signed, Russia would have the law on its side. At the moment, it's t'other way round.

[Potemkin]

Protect and Survive

[ingliz]

"Water supply for Crimea"?

After Russia annexed Crimea, Ukrainian authorities cut the volume of water flowing into Crimea via the North Crimean Canal, citing a huge outstanding debt on water supplies owed by the peninsula. This caused the peninsula's agricultural harvest, which is heavily dependent on irrigation, to fail in 2014.

[ness31]

Yeah, the water the thing.. Ukraine did a spot of damming to the supply in Crimea

Crimea is now either a militarized army base or a fledgling tourist attraction. Depends on who you ask.

That bridge is mighty impressive though, you must admit

[Rugoz]

De jure is a whole new ballgame, though. After the treaty is signed, Russia would have the law on its side. At the moment, it's t'other way round.

As if Putler gives a damn about the law .

I doubt it would be recognized internationally as a consequence anyway.

[Rugoz]

After Russia annexed Crimea, Ukrainian authorities cut the volume of water flowing into Crimea via the North Crimean Canal, citing a huge outstanding debt on water supplies owed by the peninsula. This caused the peninsula's agricultural harvest, which is heavily dependent on irrigation, to fail in 2014.

You presume Ukraine will cede that region. Otherwise they can cut it again of course.

[ingliz]

As if Putler gives a damn about the law

Great powers use the law when it suits them and ignore it when it doesn't.

It doesn't require giving a damn.

[Rugoz]

Great powers use the law when it suits them and ignore it when it doesn't.

It doesn't require giving a damn.

So it makes no difference. That's what I said.

[ingliz]

So it makes no difference.

It may be enough of a push to have some nations lift sanctions now they have the legal cover to resume trade.

That would be a difference.

[ingliz]

^

Seoul took a passive position that it could not but join sanctions if the US and Europe impose them. Even as Washington vowed to sanction Russian gas pipeline projects, the prime minister said last week publicly that South Korea should keep on pushing a project to lay a gas pipeline linking Russia to South Korea via North Korea. Only after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the government announced it would join sanctions. It looked obviously reluctant.

— The Korea Herald

[Rugoz]

It may be enough of a push to have some nations lift sanctions now they have the legal cover to resume trade.

That would be a difference.

As I said, de facto Russia already owned Donbas, without sanctions being in place (or far less compared to now). So what did it gain exactly?

[ingliz]

So what did it gain exactly?

They took Ukraine out of the game.

[Rugoz]

They took Ukraine out of the game.

Out of the game of what? Ukraine can only emerge stronger from this, unless it loses a lot of territory/people.

[ingliz]

Out of the game of what?

A cliché, I know, but 'The Great Game' in which the US supplies the weapons and the patsy - Ukraine in this instance - provides the meat.

[noemon]

De jure is a whole new ballgame, though. After the treaty is signed, Russia would have the law on its side. At the moment, it's t'other way round.

"The law" You need some copium dude..

1) Russia had Europe on its side. It now has Europe as an adversary for the next 100 years. Germany and France agreed to Minsk II, Minsk II gave more to Russia than what is currently being discussed.

2) The "law" Russia spat on its signature on the Budapest memorandum that guaranteed Ukrainian independence and sovereignty.

And she will pay for it in the Hague.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_ ... Assurances