[Robert Urbanek]

An estimated 100,000 Russians soldiers have been killed or wounded in the Ukraine War, prompting Western pundits to wonder how many more casualties Russia can tolerate.

They have overlooked the capacity of Western nations, particularly the U.S., to tolerate many deaths. More than 1 million people have died of COVID in the United States, yet people talk of a return to normalcy. People go about their routine lives, regardless of the many thousands killed each year from gun violence or opioid abuse.

Why should we assume the Russians are any less numbed to death, particularly in a society where the true number of fatalities and the volume of suffering are easily suppressed by the Putin regime?

I expect Putin can still draw another half million conscripts, if not from the ‘soft” westernized cities, then probably from the rural areas where access to the truth about the war is even more limited, and the population is more susceptible to appeals to preserve “traditional values” from the degenerate West.

Perhaps I am wrong, and I welcome any evidence that Russian support of the war has reached a breaking point and massive civil disruption is just around the corner.

[late]

An estimated 100,000 Russians soldiers have been killed or wounded in the Ukraine War, prompting Western pundits to wonder how many more casualties Russia can tolerate.

They have overlooked the capacity of Western nations, particularly the U.S., to tolerate many deaths. More than 1 million people have died of COVID in the United States, yet people talk of a return to normalcy. People go about their routine lives, regardless of the many thousands killed each year from gun violence or opioid abuse.

Why should we assume the Russians are any less numbed to death, particularly in a society where the true number of fatalities and the volume of suffering are easily suppressed by the Putin regime?

I expect Putin can still draw another half million conscripts, if not from the ‘soft” westernized cities, then probably from the rural areas where access to the truth about the war is even more limited, and the population is more susceptible to appeals to preserve “traditional values” from the degenerate West.

Perhaps I am wrong, and I welcome any evidence that Russian support of the war has reached a breaking point and massive civil disruption is just around the corner.

This happens every time Russia gets into a serious conflict.

The problem is not the people, they are afraid to talk, for the most part. The problem is that this young generation is very small. Between the war and fleeing the country, it's getting smaller. Nobody is telling Putin the bad news, but the really bad news is that they will eventually be unable to field a large army.

Russia is in a very, very bad way.

[Robert Urbanek]

This happens every time Russia gets into a serious conflict.

The problem is not the people, they are afraid to talk, for the most part. The problem is that this young generation is very small. Between the war and fleeing the country, it's getting smaller. Nobody is telling Putin the bad news, but the really bad news is that they will eventually be unable to field a large army.

Russia is in a very, very bad way.

At the start of 2022, Russia had about 21.8 million men aged 20-39 while Ukraine had about 5.4 million men in that age group. Of course, since then many draft-age men have fled Russia but many fathers with children have also left Ukraine.

In a war of attrition, the numbers still favor Russia.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005416/population-russia-gender-age-group/
https://www.populationof.net/ukraine/#:~:text=The%20demographics%20of%20Ukraine%20constitutes%20of%2023%2C396%2C000%20women,18.0%25%20of%20population%20%287%2C836%2C300%29%20is%20over%2065.%20Estimated

[Potemkin]

At the start of 2022, Russia had about 21.8 million men aged 20-39 while Ukraine had about 5.4 million men in that age group. Of course, since then many draft-age men have fled Russia but many fathers with children have also left Ukraine.

In a war of attrition, the numbers still favor Russia.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005416/population-russia-gender-age-group/
https://www.populationof.net/ukraine/#:~:text=The%20demographics%20of%20Ukraine%20constitutes%20of%2023%2C396%2C000%20women,18.0%25%20of%20population%20%287%2C836%2C300%29%20is%20over%2065.%20Estimated

In a war of attrition, the numbers favoured America during the Vietnam War too. Yet America lost that war. War is never just about numbers, @Robert Urbanek.

[Saeko]

In a war of attrition, the numbers favoured America during the Vietnam War too. Yet America lost that war. War is never just about numbers, @Robert Urbanek.

But what if those numbers come with dollar signs in front of them?

[ingliz]

America during the Vietnam War

America, during the Vietnam War, made the mistake of letting Americans see what it was doing in their name.

[late]

In a war of attrition, the numbers still favor Russia.

"President Vladimir Putin spent years racing against Russia’s demographic clock, only to order an invasion of Ukraine that’s consigning his country’s population to a historic decline. 

Crippling disruptions from the war are converging with a population crisis rooted in the 1990s, a period of economic hardship after the Soviet breakup that sent fertility rates plunging. Independent demographer Alexei Raksha is calling it “a perfect storm.”

Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher and specialist in demographics at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. Total deaths in Russia average close to 2 million annually, though the number increased during the pandemic and approached 2.5 million last year.

A demographic reckoning has arrived for Russia, its economy starved of young employees and now at risk of stagnation or worse long after the war is over. Bloomberg Economics now estimates Russia’s potential growth rate at 0.5%, down two percentage points from before the war — with demographics accounting for about a quarter of the downgrade.

The continuation of the military campaign and mobilization until the end of next spring would be “catastrophic,” according to Efremov, likely bringing births down to just 1 million in the 12 months to mid-2024. The fertility rate may reach 1.2 children per woman, he said, a level Russia saw only once in 1999-2000. 

A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration.

“It is likely that in conditions of uncertainty, many couples will postpone having children for some time until the situation stabilizes,” said Elena Churilova, research fellow in the Higher School Economics’s International Laboratory for Population and Health. “In 2023, we are likely to see a further decline in the birth rate.”

https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-p ... ect-storm/

Russia is in deep doo doo.

[late]

America, during the Vietnam War, made the mistake of letting Americans see what it was doing in their name.

A mistake Putin is carefully avoiding...