15 000 years in the future - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14674973
Hindsite wrote:That is ridiculous. There is no way that Trump would be as wealthy simply by banking the money.

Not by banking it, but rather by entrusting it to the same financial tools used by every wealthy guy, foundation, corporation, etc.

He inherited 40-200 millions 40 years ago, and now he has 2-4 billions. Which means he increased his wealth 10-100 times over 40 years. This is a yearly growth of 6%-12%.

During that time window the DJIA index (Dow Jones) increased 15 times fold with a 5-6% yearly performance. And asset managers typically provided robust yearly performances in the 5-6% brackets. Both asset managers and index funds are relatively low risks while Trump did take a lot of risks.

This is an important thing to consider: he did take a lot of risks. Betting is fine as long as you can afford to lose, but it takes luck as much as talent to win. No one can predict the future, only evaluate probabilities.


So as for whether Trump is a good business man or not, given the lack of data he may be half-decent to very good, we cannot tell. But personally I would not entrust him my money: his results are not worth his risks. And I have a pretty good idea of how to earn money.
#14674988
Harmattan wrote:He inherited 40-200 millions 40 years ago, and now he has 2-4 billions. Which means he increased his wealth 10-100 times over 40 years. This is a yearly growth of 6%-12%.

Of course that is not factoring in currency depreciation. Dollars (along with other paper currencies) went into free fall (against stable measures like commodities, real estate and precious metals) after Nixon switched over to fully fake money. For example if you look at the last 40 years of house prices in the US you see fantastic price growth but when you factor in inflation it is mostly pretty flat.

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#14675003
Hmm... interesting oscillations on that graph. They seem to increase in wavelength and in amplitude in a regular, predictable fashion. The bubble can therefore be seen as merely the final 'crest' of those oscillations rather than as an isolated anomaly. It's almost as though the market keeps trying to correct itself, but those corrections, through some positive-feedback mechanism, increasingly become over-corrections....

Meh, it's probably nothing.
#14675010
Potemkin wrote:Hmm... interesting oscillations on that graph. They seem to increase in wavelength and in amplitude in a regular, predictable fashion. The bubble can therefore be seen as merely the final 'crest' of those oscillations rather than as an isolated anomaly. It's almost as though the market keeps trying to correct itself, but those corrections, through some positive-feedback mechanism, increasingly become over-corrections....

Meh, it's probably nothing.

Well as new debt money is issued the money supply increases but this tends to happen a bit unevenly, prices rise to accommodate the new money which also signals to people that real estate is an asset that increases in value relative to dollars which makes real estate look like a "good investment" so an increase in the number of dollars has a double impact on prices. It's like periodicaly dumping a bucket of water into a bathtub, it makes waves which eventually settle whilst also raising the water level.

The really big spike is just the consequence of an extra large bucket of newly conjured money being dumped into the market.
#14675019
Potemkin wrote:Hmm... interesting oscillations on that graph. They seem to increase in wavelength and in amplitude in a regular, predictable fashion. The bubble can therefore be seen as merely the final 'crest' of those oscillations rather than as an isolated anomaly. It's almost as though the market keeps trying to correct itself, but those corrections, through some positive-feedback mechanism, increasingly become over-corrections....

Meh, it's probably nothing.


Well done.
#14677613
The invisible hand of the Jesus free market will make sure those oscillations are kept to a minimum in the future.
#14677660
Rancid wrote:The invisible hand of the Jesus free market will make sure those oscillations are kept to a minimum in the future.

You must mean the Trump fair market, but there is nothing free about it. Someone always pays. so Trump plans to make those payments fair and ensure America gets a good deal as he Makes America Great Again.
#14677690
Please gather your off-topic postings and get the fuck out of my thread.

#14677706
Evolution has already kicked in. The tallest people in the world are the perfidious Dutch. And they are bloody well going to need to be.
#14677921
This topic could be so much more interesting if we talked about how we saw the universe changing in 15,000 years. In 15,000 years we (or our descendants) will likely be able to reshape planets. We will geoengineer solar systems and/or ourselves to create a vast ocean of worlds teeming with life. That to me is really exciting.
#14678129
Ummon wrote:This topic could be so much more interesting if we talked about how we saw the universe changing in 15,000 years. In 15,000 years we (or our descendants) will likely be able to reshape planets. We will geoengineer solar systems and/or ourselves to create a vast ocean of worlds teeming with life. That to me is really exciting.

It's also radically unpredictable. Think about what the world was like 300 years ago. In may respects, it was essentially unchanged from the most advanced civilization 3000 years ago: someone from an ancient civilization transported to the most advanced society of 1716 -- say, London -- would have understood what he saw. It would have been quite a shock in some ways, but it would not be so different from his own world. Move ahead 150 years to 1866, and the ancient would no longer understand what he was seeing. Now think of someone from 1866 in today's world. Again, they would not understand what they were seeing.

Now Frollein is talking about a time 100x farther into the future. That is just radically unpredictable. It is hard enough to imagine the world of 2166. In particular, the advance of AI makes it quite likely that we will either be sharing our world with entities far more intelligent than we are, who will be controlling things (including us), or will be extinct. By definition, you can't see past a singularity.

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