[Frollein]

I'm looking for projections of how Earth may look like then, geographically, but google only gives me links about the past. Anyone have links for me?

[Typhoon]

Probably very similar to what we have today, plate tectonics works on the scale of millions of years rather than thousands. Water might move around a bit, lakes, ice, rivers etc.

Edit: human influence on geography will probably be the greatest but that would be hard to predict exactly.

[Frollein]

Well, I was more thinking of different coastlines and perhaps one or two supervolcanoes blowing up...

[Potemkin]

Well, I was more thinking of different coastlines and perhaps one or two supervolcanoes blowing up...

By their nature, these things are unpredictable, Frollein. Geographically, the Earth will probably look very similar to the way it looks right now, though probably with slightly less land due to a higher sea level (assuming that anthropogenic global warming isn't just a hoax). But again, it's impossible to predict the sea level 15,000 years from now, or even whether it will rise at all. Continental drift, of course, occurs at too slow a rate to be noticeable on a time scale of only a few thousand years.

[Godstud]

[noemon]

I am also interested in this question, does any one know of any good 3d models with future renderings of the earth? There surely must be some out there?

[Potemkin]

[youtube]bQywDr-btz4[/youtube]

[Rancid]

We're going back to fucking Pangaea?

[noemon]

That's what I'm wondering as well, I thought we were drifting apart not coming back together, did these guys assume that the continents climbed up the hill and are now going down the hill?

[youtube]uGcDed4xVD4[/youtube]

[Potemkin]

We're going back to fucking Pangaea?

Eventually, yes. There have been several Pangeas in Earth's history, and there will be more in the far future. What drifts apart must eventually drift back together again....

Formation and break-up of continents

[Frollein]

I'm not looking for accurate predictions, I know that they're impossible. But informed projections should exist, since I've seen bits of them floating around (for example, the next big earthquakes for California), just not in one place where they could form a coherent picture.

[Godstud]

Here's one:
[youtube]Bz9e0PGSDeU[/youtube]

[SolarCross]

For the past 50 million years earth has been in a glacial period where most of the time it looks and feels like the planet Hoth in Star Wars.


It doesn't look like that now because the glacial period has little warmish periods, called inter-glacials, lasting only about 10,000 years every 125,000 years or so and we are in one of these inter-glacials at present.



Based on the regular as clockwork cycle of glacials and inter-glacials that we have had for the last 50 million years then in 15,000 years time the warmth of the current inter-glacial will have long passed away and the planet will be back squarely in another glacial period and looking like Hoth again.

There again the glacial period may be winding up as it has already lasted 50 million years and the glacial periods prior to the current one rarely lasted longer than 50 million years.



Although even if it will be winding up it will still take a few hundred thousand years to fully wind up so it will still be an "ice age" in 15,000 years time.

Some truly gargantuan cosmological event like a orbit altering massive impact might screw with this though.


TL;DR Earth will be Arctic cold and covered in glaciers in 15,000 years time.

[Frollein]

I've read that we have successfully prevented another ice age with our heroic pollution. I think the book's title was Deep Future or something...

[SolarCross]

I've read that we have successfully prevented another ice age with our heroic pollution. I think the book's title was Deep Future or something...

Maybe, I am not sure myself it will be enough, too little too late, but keep the fires burning and the engines running and our descendants may have a chance or else build snowmen in the Sahara.

[Harmattan]

I'm not looking for accurate predictions, I know that they're impossible. But informed projections should exist, since I've seen bits of them floating around (for example, the next big earthquakes for California), just not in one place where they could form a coherent picture.

The problem is that because of human influence all possible scenarios are on the table. A frozen Earth or an arid one, high ocean levels or low one. Climate and vegetation are now mostly human-driven: greenhouse gases, deforestation, urbanization, soil erosion because of exploitation, ... All other factors pale in comparison to our influence (except the even bigger species-extinction level events such as giga-volcanoes, large asteroids or extreme gamma bursts).

So just pick the scenario you want.

[Truth To Power]

I'm looking for projections of how Earth may look like then, geographically, but google only gives me links about the past. Anyone have links for me?

Any particular reason for picking 15KY? And do you mean what will it look like, or what would it look like if human influence were negligible? IMO, if you are talking about the former, it is radically unpredictable even 1500Y in the future, let alone 15000; if the latter, the consensus is that we will have returned to Ice Age conditions.

[ThirdTerm]

The map shows how the Earth looked like before an abrupt rise in the sea level 12,500 BCE. The shapes or locations of major continents would not change drastically in 150,000 years but climate change could cause another rise in the sea level.

National Geographic has an amazing feature on what happens if all ice on land melts and sea levels rise by 216 feet. That could take a very long time (thousands of years, even) but if we keep emitting like we’ve been, the results are drastic. Florida, Delaware, Louisiana, and New Jersey are almost entirely underwater. The entire eastern coastline is submerged. The Central Valley of California will become a large bay. The Yucatán peninsula will go too, as will much of Cuba and Hispaniola.
http://knowmore.washingtonpost.com/2013 ... -ice-caps/

In 20,000 years: Humans have a larger head with a forehead that is subtly too large.


In 60,000 years: Human beings have even larger heads, larger eyes and pigmented skin.

In 100,000 years: The human face is proportioned to the 'golden ratio,' though it features unnervingly large eyes. There is green “eye shine” from the tapetum lucidum, and a more pronounced superciliary arch. A sideways blink of the reintroduced plica semilunaris seen in the light gray areas of the eyes, while miniature bone-conduction devices implanted above the ear work with the communications lenses on the eyes. Image credit: Nickolay Lamm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/ ... e74abe7687

I expect that the human face would look more Caucasian in 100,000 years through interbreeding and cosmetic surgeries and Southeast Asians would die out gradually, especially the Papuan people. Human haplotypes would diversify further and there would be a new species of human beings with exotic looks, which is more likely to take place in East Asia.

[geb]

How plausible are these long-term predictions?

http://www.messagetoeagle.com/humans-will-look-like-millions-years-now/

[Renato]

The problem is that because of human influence all possible scenarios are on the table. A frozen Earth or an arid one, high ocean levels or low one.

Yeah, this way the man-made climatic change theory will be correct under any circumstance. Brilliant.