Population Bomb - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Pollution, global warming, urbanisation etc.
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#14936259
Oxymandias wrote:To be fair, mice are a lot more smaller than humans and require less resources to survive.


He asked for one mammal to match our 7 bil, so I did.

task complete.

One Degree wrote:Yes, humans can live at the level of mice if that is your goal. My goal is the advancement of the species.


Which is a separate matter and why I called it a relative desire.

Your vision of the future and what it entails regarding population numbers is ultimately irrelevant to the question of whether the earth is overpopulated.

Your conclusion does not follow from your premises. (non-sequitur)

Likewise, if you are attempting to define overpopulation as "too many people for the future you want for mankind" that is equivocating of terms regarding what most people understand by that term.

One Degree wrote:Why do you expect anything to change with even more people? We had starving people when the world population was 3 billion and we still have starving people. Yet, you insist 10 billion will not be a problem.


No, I said population was irrelevant to the problem at all. We could support 20 billion on this planet with relative ease if we managed our resources appropriately. Population is irrelevant to the actual problems facing mankind RIGHT NOW.

One Degree wrote:All the bad things get worse with more people. More pollution, crime, etc. Why not tackle the base cause of too many people?


I dunno, maybe because none of those things have anything to do with population. Why don't we kill everyone, that will eliminate all crime and pollution altogether.

Where do you draw the line? 5 billion? 3 billion, 1 billion, 200 million?

When do you think crime will be reversed? Pollution ended? Do you want to reduce population so that mankind will have license to be wasteful, polluting, and criminal without the repercussions doing such in larger numbers would cause?

WTF are you even trying to argue? :lol:

Your position is vacuous.

One Degree wrote:If humans are special, as you say, then should our goal not be more than mere survival? Is God’s purpose for us meaningless survival generation after generation or are we intended to find answers? It is an entirely different universe depending on whether God’s agenda is based upon each individual or humankind as a whole. Is the individual important, or just humankind? Our short lifespan makes the importance placed on the individual or current generation seem unlikely.


All of this crap is an irrelevant appeal to sentiment.

Do you think appealing to my theism will make me sympathetic to your futurist technocratic dystopia of population controls? :lol:

I believe mankind is special and therefore that all pregnancy prevention is murder. How do I fit in your future now eh mate?

Don't go down a road by appealing to "my better nature," Its not there, I have no sympathy for your silly delusions based on nothing in reality.

Feel free to attempt an actual argument.
By Oxymandias
#14936261
@anasawad

urrently we produce enough food to feed 10 billion people at full nutrition level, that is average of 2500 calories per day consumption.
This is while the fact we use only 50% GMO food production. If that percentage is 100% (GMOs are not bad, cut the bullshit from the start) and increased investments by only a fraction annually, we'll be able to feed every single person on earth to obesity.

For resources, 2 points.
1- there are enough raw materials and minerals on earth to sustain peak population which is 11 billion people all at consumption levels compared to that of the first world. (lack of access due to hording and prevention of access methods used by states to maintain power are not the same as scarcity. That should be clear for everyone)
The only problem is oil is running out so we need to find an renewable or manufactured alternative.
Some will say fresh water, that would be stupid. 70% of the earth surface is covered with water and we already have the technology to turn it into usable fresh water.
2- We have a thing called space where there are other planets and asteroids with lots of minerals.

The problem with food and resources aren't scarcity, rather mismanagement and faulty distribution.
People who cant find food are like that because the current world system prevents them from accessing food not because there isn't enough food.
Let me repeat that we currently produce enough food to feed 10 billion people.

For the environment, again, the answer is well not anything else. We have the technology to produce all our needs without damaging the environment, its just cheaper not to care about the consequences of using outdated production and manufacturing methods rather than actual updating to better standards.


For the space needed for everything. 2 ideas and 2 countries.
1- China with its mega cities plans, having mega, highly concentrated, population centers massively reduce the burden on the environment.
And
2- Iran with vertical farm stacks proposed in the university of Tehran and currently in governmental consideration to increase food production.
The idea is building large closed farms stacked on top of each other in a contained environment, And the proposal is using mountains to reduce building cost, that is building inside mountains to reduce construction and maintenance cost to an economically viable rate.

The same can be done with factories, as in stacking factories on top of each other in large scale industrial complexes built somewhere that doesn't harm the environment, primarily, mountains.
I'm sure we have enough mountains to go around for everyone.


This is why technocracy is necessary. We are perfectly capable of reaching a post-scarcity society yet we are unable to get our shit together and do so. Mega cities and vertical farms aren't enough. They don't solve what is really the problem here, which is resource distribution. Furthermore, vertical farms cannot be placed anywhere. For example, the Sahara as you have mentioned is too flat and it's landscape is too unstable (it's sand dunes shift every night) to building any farm there. It's why people who live in the Sahara are nomads and not farmers. Mega cities are also unsustainable and don't take into account urban complexity or emergence which characterize human forms of social organization.

Factories need to be decentralized, not stacked upon each other. I agree that we need more verticality in our urbanism and infrastructure but this is not how it should be done.

Actually, the west is indeed in the middle of this mess.
The west in general, and the US in specific, set right in the middle along with China, India, and the rest of major industrial countries.
They after all are the ones holding most of the industries and are the ones refusing to make the needed changes because it would reduce their profit.
A country in the middle of the Sahara for example with no industries, barely any production of any sort, and barely even being noted in international politics is a country that is irrelevant to be considered in the solutions for the current problems.


I don't think we should be reliant on the West to solve all our problems. Countries become industrial powerhouses by recognizing their agency and fighting for it. They do so by self-reflection and nurturing their population to develop and prosper. They don't do so by sitting around and hoping someone else solves their problems. In my opinion, the Middle East, not just Iran, has the capability to be the top industrial power in the planet. it is only our reliance on a external power that has no interest in our prosperity that is preventing us from achieving our full potential. We must discard our ties to the West and become self-determined.
By Oxymandias
#14936262
@Victoribus Spolia

That's true and you certainly achieved your goal. I was playing devil's advocate towards what One Degree's intentions were, not for the actual question he asked.
By anasawad
#14936283
@Oxymandias
Mega cities and vertical farms aren't enough. They don't solve what is really the problem here, which is resource distribution.

True, but that is political, and increasing production and introducing resources efficiency makes it easier to apply a better distribution system.
Further more, cities tend to enrich people and give access to much more services and goods and opportunities than the country side and mega cities will be even better. This is why China is planning and building mega cities, its how its planning to kill poverty.


Furthermore, vertical farms cannot be placed anywhere. For example, the Sahara as you have mentioned is too flat and it's landscape is too unstable (it's sand dunes shift every night) to building any farm there.

It can be built anywhere, though some places need to be underground, and most suitably built inside mountains.
The idea isn't have a couple farms on top of each other with the total size of a few 100s of square meters.
The idea is more like stack a few 100 farms on top of each other each with the size of a dozen square kilometer, And all inside a solid concrete structure in a contained environment, making them easier to grow any type of plants in them as they're not really dependent on the country's climate. And much better resources efficiency and more massive production. all while preserving natural environment because you wont have to cut down forests to turn the land into farm lands.

Mega cities are also unsustainable and don't take into account urban complexity or emergence which characterize human forms of social organization.

Quite the opposite, mega cities are more sustainable than regular cities due to the massive reduction in the costs and materials needed to provide full services and access to people per person dropping massively.

Factories need to be decentralized, not stacked upon each other.

Again, I disagree, storage and distribution facilities need to be decentralized, however factories need to be turned from small factories into mega mass production facilities, usually close to cities.
This also reduces the cost of production and massively increases efficiency allowing goods to be cheaper and more accessible to the general population.
This may seem unattainable when we're talking about the current mode of city planning, however with megacities, mass production facilities are more reliable to use than the current semi decentralized facilities.

I don't think we should be reliant on the West to solve all our problems. Countries become industrial powerhouses by recognizing their agency and fighting for it.

'm not saying we should. I was responding to her saying the west is not a mess, by saying the west is literally in the middle of all these problems because main western countries are refusing to acknowledge facts and adopt to newer technologies, mainly the US.

They do so by self-reflection and nurturing their population to develop and prosper. They don't do so by sitting around and hoping someone else solves their problems.

True.

In my opinion, the Middle East, not just Iran, has the capability to be the top industrial power in the planet.

True, but the current regimes need to go for that to happen, all of them. And the culture need to be changed radically.
By Oxymandias
#14936334
@anasawad

True, but that is political, and increasing production and introducing resources efficiency makes it easier to apply a better distribution system.


Political change must happen first before application. Political change coincides with ideological change. By changing the way people think, we can go forward with projects that would've previously been seen as unthinkable. The importance of developing better resource distribution comes from the cultural shift it represents, not it's efficiency (which is still highly valuable).

Regardless, Vertical farms won't be used properly under the current system. I doubt they would be used at all. The incentives aren't there for businesses or the government to do so.

Further more, cities tend to enrich people and give access to much more services and goods and opportunities than the country side and mega cities will be even better. This is why China is planning and building mega cities, its how its planning to kill poverty.


I am not saying that cities are bad. I actually think that cities are the main sources of economic growth and that states should revolve their national strategy around said cities. I only have a problem with your implication that these mega cities would be planned. I think that planned cities fail to take into consideration the emergence and complexity of human social organization. Furthermore, planned cities only look impressive from an overhead view while they are unimpressive when you're walking around them or on a street level. Take a look at the planned city of Astana. Kazakhstan's government put trillions into the development of their new capital city, Astana and yet a majority of the population that moved there hated the city itself and simply lived there due to their jobs being present there. These planned cities are inhuman and are built to be seen as a whole as works of art, not for human life.

You don't need planned cities to have loads of goods and services. In fact, planned cities are a detriment to that because many planned cities are very strict on the development of new buildings and ban mixed use development. Emergent cities are far more capable of being flexible and adapting to new situations as well as providing new services that matter to the general population.

It can be built anywhere, though some places need to be underground, and most suitably built inside mountains.
The idea isn't have a couple farms on top of each other with the total size of a few 100s of square meters.
The idea is more like stack a few 100 farms on top of each other each with the size of a dozen square kilometer, And all inside a solid concrete structure in a contained environment, making them easier to grow any type of plants in them as they're not really dependent on the country's climate. And much better resources efficiency and more massive production. all while preserving natural environment because you wont have to cut down forests to turn the land into farm lands.


Then I agree with it. Although, in the case of the Sahara, the sand is deep enough to reach below sea level. It'll take a special method to build a vertical farm there, assuming that the Sahara isn't terraformed before then.

Quite the opposite, mega cities are more sustainable than regular cities due to the massive reduction in the costs and materials needed to provide full services and access to people per person dropping massively.


I disagree completely with that. I don't see how building bigger planned cities is going to lower costs. You realize that governments need to pay for every building and piece of concrete that lay in the parameters of the city. This won't be like an emergent city where you take a small town, provide incentives for it to become a city, and then let the city emerge by itself with only some partial foresight. In that case, the government would be spending 10x less than they would building a large planned city.

Furthermore, planned cities aren't sustainable. They cannot adapt to social or technological change. Once technology or society progresses to a point in which the planned city can't keep up, that's when it dies. Then, you have another Detroit.

Again, I disagree, storage and distribution facilities need to be decentralized, however factories need to be turned from small factories into mega mass production facilities, usually close to cities.
This also reduces the cost of production and massively increases efficiency allowing goods to be cheaper and more accessible to the general population.
This may seem unattainable when we're talking about the current mode of city planning, however with megacities, mass production facilities are more reliable to use than the current semi decentralized facilities.


They would need to be far more closer to cities in order to have any effect on the efficiency of distribution. Factories would have to be integrated into the city. This is why I said factories should be more decentralized and bound together by networks in a series of depots because it makes distribution of resources easier in the city (since factories aren't outside of the city, they are integrated within it) and it let's production factories to have better ties with the companies and businesses it's producing for.

The current mode of city planning is too centralized, not too decentralized. Furthermore, placing factories all in one place makes them less reliable not more. If all factories are connected to the same system, this means that if that system fails, all the factories will be affected. This is not the case in a network of factories where if one factory's system fails, the rest continue to function as usual.

@Suntzu

That's because you're stupid.

Here are a list of achievements by Middle Easterners:

1. Provided the basis for the entirety of modern Western philosophy

2. Created soap

3. Created the basis for hydroelectricity

4. Brought windmills and waterwheels to Europe

5. Created the first universities

6. Created the first public school system

7. Created civilization as we know it (Babylon, Assyria, Persia, Egypt, etc.)

8. Created the basis for mathematics as we know it

9. Ancient Babylonian and Persian philosophy heavily inspired Plato who went on to create Western philosophy

10. Created the first public libraries

11. Created the first hospitals

12. Created modern optics

13. Created the science fiction genre

14. Created the proto-novel

15. Created the picaresque genre

16. Created cravats

17. Created the first professional standing army

18. Were the first to fully adopted guns into their armies

19. Created one of the largest empires in the world

20. Created existentialism

21. Created capitalism

22. Were the first to legalize homosexuality

23. Were the first to have gender equality

24. Developed the first constitution

25. Created the first legal system

26. Created architecture

27. Created culture as we know it

28. Created the first army in the world

29. Created the first government

30. Created most of everything we now associate with civilization really

31. Developed trade
By Oxymandias
#14936337
@Suntzu

There's even more but I can't really list them all because once you include all of Middle Eastern civilization you realize that without the Middle East, you would not even have civilization so that makes the list pretty big. I am not even close to how much the Caliphate contributed let alone what the Middle East, in the entirety of it's history, has accomplished. It has accomplished more than Europe has.
User avatar
By Suntzu
#14936408
Oxymandias wrote:@anasawad



This is why technocracy is necessary. We are perfectly capable of reaching a post-scarcity society yet we are unable to get our shit together and do so. Mega cities and vertical farms aren't enough. They don't solve what is really the problem here, which is resource distribution. Furthermore, vertical farms cannot be placed anywhere. For example, the Sahara as you have mentioned is too flat and it's landscape is too unstable (it's sand dunes shift every night) to building any farm there. It's why people who live in the Sahara are nomads and not farmers. Mega cities are also unsustainable and don't take into account urban complexity or emergence which characterize human forms of social organization.

Factories need to be decentralized, not stacked upon each other. I agree that we need more verticality in our urbanism and infrastructure but this is not how it should be done.



I don't think we should be reliant on the West to solve all our problems. Countries become industrial powerhouses by recognizing their agency and fighting for it. They do so by self-reflection and nurturing their population to develop and prosper. They don't do so by sitting around and hoping someone else solves their problems. In my opinion, the Middle East, not just Iran, has the capability to be the top industrial power in the planet. it is only our reliance on a external power that has no interest in our prosperity that is preventing us from achieving our full potential. We must discard our ties to the West and become self-determined.


So nothing in the last 400 years?

8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
By Oxymandias
#14936427
@Suntzu

400 years ago the Ottoman Empire was on the brink of taking over the entirety of Europe and was the economic and political superpower of the world. You have to go earlier than that.
By anasawad
#14936463
@Oxymandias
Political change must happen first before application.

Not really.
Social change first comes, followed by market change, then political change.
Politics follows rarely leads.
The first already happened, the market is gradually happening, political change will come after.

Political change coincides with ideological change. By changing the way people think, we can go forward with projects that would've previously been seen as unthinkable.

But the people are already ready and wanting of such projects in most places, whether its in Iran or else where in the world. The economy and market are starting to follow, and politics will soon start following as its already starting to gradually.

The importance of developing better resource distribution comes from the cultural shift it represents, not it's efficiency (which is still highly valuable).

I disagree.
As you know, societies are, generally speaking, divided into various classes, lets say 3 for simplicity (altough its usually many more), lower, middle, and upper classes; Resources are distributed among them in various rates and none of them want to lose resources, this is where the class struggle Marxists talk about comes from, all classes want more resources, never less.
And as such, there are two ways to improve the distribution of wealth and resources;
1- Which is the more stable and peaceful method, by increasing production and thus efficiency, and increasing the share of the lower and middle classes of the income. This way the upper don't lose any wealth, but gain less of the new wealth created, and the lower and middle class gain more wealth and resources due to the higher share of the new income. This method needs the market and production to develop first, then the distribution second and is why most of the west and much of east Asia are wealthy.

2- Being the more communist, if so to say, method which is with revolution (i.e radical change in distribution happening very fast); Here you change the distribution method before you change the production and extraction methods, and what you end up with is a class or more losing resources to benefit other classes (usually the upper classes), And as expected, they'll fight for that not to happen which usually leads to conflict and eventually a power vacuum. And this method almost constantly fail because of the creation of a power vacuum, the worst elements of a nation comes out when there is a power vacuum and usually they're the ones to fill it, so it gets worse for everyone else when that happens.

Now, what does this has to do with the establishment of mega cities and all sort of other projects we're talking about ?
Because those increase efficiency and volume of production, and in the process of this increase, the people can lead a shift in the political landscape to increase their share of the newly created wealth and as such improve their lives without having a class conflict and having a huge risk of things getting worse for everyone.

So, social change leads to market change which leads political change.

Regardless, Vertical farms won't be used properly under the current system. I doubt they would be used at all. The incentives aren't there for businesses or the government to do so.


If we're talking about Iran;
The political incentive exists: avoid uprising and revolution.
The economic incentive exists: increase the volume and stability of the economy.
The social incentive exists: improve living standards and access to basic materials such as food.

If we're talking about other countries with more capitalistic systems:
The political incentive doesn't exist yet.
The economic incentive exists: improve production both in volume and efficiency and thus improve sales and earnings.
The social incentive exists: lower prices and improve living standards.

I only have a problem with your implication that these mega cities would be planned

There is no need for the state to directly build them, the state only need to put the legal and political groundwork for them to exist and put incentives for private investors to pursue it.

I think that planned cities fail to take into consideration the emergence and complexity of human social organization.

Depends on the level of planning and centralization.

Furthermore, planned cities only look impressive from an overhead view while they are unimpressive when you're walking around them or on a street level

You ever been to Madrid ? :p

Take a look at the planned city of Astana. Kazakhstan's government put trillions into the development of their new capital city, Astana and yet a majority of the population that moved there hated the city itself and simply lived there due to their jobs being present there. These planned cities are inhuman and are built to be seen as a whole as works of art, not for human life.

Thats the fault of bad planning not planning in general.
Again, most Europeans cities after world war 2 are planned constructions and they're, for the most part, great.

Emergent cities are far more capable of being flexible and adapting to new situations as well as providing new services that matter to the general population.

Emergent cities usually have significant portion of planning.
Examples from near by: Dubai, Abu Dahbi, Doha, Kuwait city, etc.


You realize that governments need to pay for every building and piece of concrete that lay in the parameters of the city.

Not really, to build a mega city doesn't necessarily mean the government will build and pay for everything.
All it has to do is give the incentives for investors to build.
And even if the government put a significant portion of the cost, tax revenues resulting from it usually covers it within a few years.

This won't be like an emergent city where you take a small town, provide incentives for it to become a city, and then let the city emerge by itself with only some partial foresight.

Actually its exactly like that. You only take multiple small towns and small cities, improve the infrastructure and lay the policy groundwork for them to develop and merge into one city.
This is what China is doing right now, not build entirely new cities, just connect cities together and incentivise investors to build and establish the rest.

Furthermore, planned cities aren't sustainable. They cannot adapt to social or technological change. Once technology or society progresses to a point in which the planned city can't keep up, that's when it dies. Then, you have another Detroit.

Detroit developed during world war 2 and cold war then effectively died when the war ended.
Again, we're not talking about a communist style planned mega cities, we're talking about a market based planning mega cities.

They would need to be far more closer to cities in order to have any effect on the efficiency of distribution.

Not really, production facilities and distribution facilities are two different and separate things.
Factories would have to be integrated into the city.

Not necessarily.

This is why I said factories should be more decentralized and bound together by networks in a series of depots because it makes distribution of resources easier in the city (since factories aren't outside of the city, they are integrated within it) and it let's production factories to have better ties with the companies and businesses it's producing for.

Distribution networks should and do exist, and should be maintained.
Production networks are usually more wasteful.
All major corporations already centralize production and decentralize distribution.
The proposal is more centralization of production and more decentralization of distribution.

The current mode of city planning is too centralized, not too decentralized.

That would be either true or false depending on which sector or part you're talking about.

Furthermore, placing factories all in one place makes them less reliable not more. If all factories are connected to the same system, this means that if that system fails, all the factories will be affected. This is not the case in a network of factories where if one factory's system fails, the rest continue to function as usual.

Disagree.
First, backup systems.
Second, industrial cities or compounds have multiple systems working, just simply in higher concentration next to each other.
Third, industrial compounds and cities are built in safe zones away from natural disasters or the such, and in places easier to defend in case of military necessity.
Those already exist and in use by many countries, stacking factories vertically would only improve on already existing idea by making it even more concentrated, increasing its efficiency, reducing its consumption, saving space, and reducing pollution resulting from it.




Biggest post in a while. :lol: :p
By Oxymandias
#14936500
@anasawad

Not really.
Social change first comes, followed by market change, then political change.
Politics follows rarely leads.
The first already happened, the market is gradually happening, political change will come after.


That isn't particularly relevant to my point unless you are assuming that vertical farms and planned cities would be built by the market which is practically impossible. Planned cities can only be built if the political system in place allows it to. Vertical farms can only be built if the political system in place allows it to. You need political change before you can apply it. The order required to achieve political change is irrelevant because you need political change before you can get planned cities or vertical farms.

Also, Political change is social change. Politics represents the opinions and status of the general population. It's why the fact that Trump became president in the first place is so disturbing, because it represents the opinions of the American population and how American society is changing. Politics can be seen as an abstraction of society so if society changes, so does politics. While there is a delay in the change of political systems compared to change in society, the politics of that society change at the same time as the society itself. Also, change doesn't follow in a specific order, it is much more chaotic than that.

But the people are already ready and wanting of such projects in most places, whether its in Iran or else where in the world. The economy and market are starting to follow, and politics will soon start following as its already starting to gradually.


It's not about wanting those products nor is it about their readiness. People want to build space elevators or research in alternative energy. The issue is that this isn't social or ideological change. Ideological or social change is a change in a person's values. While these people want space elevators or alternative energy, these things aren't values or tied to their values. We need to cultivate a new value in people, the value of progress of never ending growth and limitless potential. If we have that, then we will get more solutions than just planned cities or vertical farms.

I disagree.
As you know, societies are, generally speaking, divided into various classes, lets say 3 for simplicity (altough its usually many more), lower, middle, and upper classes; Resources are distributed among them in various rates and none of them want to lose resources, this is where the class struggle Marxists talk about comes from, all classes want more resources, never less.
And as such, there are two ways to improve the distribution of wealth and resources;
1- Which is the more stable and peaceful method, by increasing production and thus efficiency, and increasing the share of the lower and middle classes of the income. This way the upper don't lose any wealth, but gain less of the new wealth created, and the lower and middle class gain more wealth and resources due to the higher share of the new income. This method needs the market and production to develop first, then the distribution second and is why most of the west and much of east Asia are wealthy.

2- Being the more communist, if so to say, method which is with revolution (i.e radical change in distribution happening very fast); Here you change the distribution method before you change the production and extraction methods, and what you end up with is a class or more losing resources to benefit other classes (usually the upper classes), And as expected, they'll fight for that not to happen which usually leads to conflict and eventually a power vacuum. And this method almost constantly fail because of the creation of a power vacuum, the worst elements of a nation comes out when there is a power vacuum and usually they're the ones to fill it, so it gets worse for everyone else when that happens.

Now, what does this has to do with the establishment of mega cities and all sort of other projects we're talking about ?
Because those increase efficiency and volume of production, and in the process of this increase, the people can lead a shift in the political landscape to increase their share of the newly created wealth and as such improve their lives without having a class conflict and having a huge risk of things getting worse for everyone.

So, social change leads to market change which leads political change.


1. Planned cities aren't there to increase efficiency and I don't think I have ever heard efficiency used as a justification for building planned cities by any of it's advocates before. The main benefit of planned cities is how they are supposed to improve the quality of life of it's inhabitants. However, most cities or planned cities fail to take into consideration human psychology so while they provide all the amenities they can, the citizens of the city hate living there because it feels to artificial. Planned cities don't take into consideration what citizens actually want. You may say that this is due to bad planning, but the reason citizens dislike it is because of the fact that the city is planned in the first place.

2. Improving efficiency and distribution of resources won't solve class conflict because class will always try to get more resources than the other regardless of the systems in place. What you need is to sit all the classes and interest groups down and have a dialogue with them. This is call corporatism and it's the organization of a society based on the large interest groups that dominate it such as businessmen, workers, unions, artisans, guilds, entrepreneurs, engineers, etc. who would then work together and construct policies based on their common interests. This is the epitome of class collaboration since everyone has equal say and is represented in the political system.

If we're talking about Iran;
The political incentive exists: avoid uprising and revolution.
The economic incentive exists: increase the volume and stability of the economy.
The social incentive exists: improve living standards and access to basic materials such as food.

If we're talking about other countries with more capitalistic systems:
The political incentive doesn't exist yet.
The economic incentive exists: improve production both in volume and efficiency and thus improve sales and earnings.
The social incentive exists: lower prices and improve living standards.


1.
There are ways to temporarily satiate the urge for an uprising or revolution. It's like throwing a bone to a dog, you don't give him exactly what he wants but you give him enough of a taste that it stops him from thinking about biting you for a while. And here's the kicker, it always works every time. You get people's expectations so low that they would be fine with anything even remotely better than what they have now and they won't demand for more, they'll just try to hold on to what little they have. There is no political incentive to progress or do things that no one else has ever done. That has to do with how the government is structured.

There is no economic incentive either since most CEOs are rich as it is. All they have to do is maintain that wealth and keep in the family.

You have the social incentive wrong. Society does not have a goal, it is merely the organization of human begins of themselves. Society has as much of a goal as any individual person does and like most people, it's complicated and often doesn't know what it wants.

2.
Then why hasn't anyone done any of this? Vertical farms and planned cities have existed for centuries. Why hasn't the market or the government or society acted? For example, 1920s America was a lot like Iran. It was a period of major social upheaval and economic growth yet when Technocracy Inc. proposed the idea of a post-scarcity society and how everyone in the US could have a high standard of living, governments and businessmen tried to stop the idea from spreading. It was even banned by the Canadian government for some time. All the conditions were there so why isn't America a Technocracy? That's because it's more complicated than mere incentives. The state wants to avoid uprising and revolution but it doesn't want to replace itself for something more efficient, it wants to maintain itself even if it's inefficient or outdated. The economy wants to improve production and stability, but it doesn't want a centralized economy that would improve production and stability ten fold because then it wouldn't have any wealth. And society is at the mercy of these two factors.

There is no need for the state to directly build them, the state only need to put the legal and political groundwork for them to exist and put incentives for private investors to pursue it.


1. Right here you literally just admitted that the state needs to change in order for planned cities to become a reality because there is no financial incentive to build them.

2. That isn't enough and it also won't attract citizens to the planned cities. All the planned cities we have seen so far that have been built from scratch are all abandoned and have no people living in them. You need to attract people to the cities, not investors otherwise it would just end up at most a playground for the super rich and at worst, an empty waste of money.

Depends on the level of planning and centralization.


The amount of planning necessary to take into consideration the emergence and complexity of human social organization would be so little that you couldn't even call it a planned city by that point.

You ever been to Madrid ? :p


1. Most of Madrid is not planned at all.

2. The portions that are planned look beautiful due to the architecture, not the actual plans.

3. The portions that are planned are also the most painful to walk around in since it's like walking in a highway, it takes forever to get from point A to point B.

Thats the fault of bad planning not planning in general.
Again, most Europeans cities after world war 2 are planned constructions and they're, for the most part, great.


I can't think of any outside of Paris (which was reconstructed in 1850, not after WW2) and some town in New Zealand. Outside of that, I can't think of any at the moment. Paris, after it's reconstruction, is still significantly less planned than many modern planned cities.

Emergent cities usually have significant portion of planning.
Examples from near by: Dubai, Abu Dahbi, Doha, Kuwait city, etc.


None of the cities you mentioned are emergent.

Not really, to build a mega city doesn't necessarily mean the government will build and pay for everything.
All it has to do is give the incentives for investors to build.
And even if the government put a significant portion of the cost, tax revenues resulting from it usually covers it within a few years.


1. A business or capitalist built city would certainly not be planned.

2. Citizens wouldn't be able to live there for free

3. If it is built by investors then investors would need to receive a a portion of the tax revenue.

Actually its exactly like that. You only take multiple small towns and small cities, improve the infrastructure and lay the policy groundwork for them to develop and merge into one city.
This is what China is doing right now, not build entirely new cities, just connect cities together and incentivise investors to build and establish the rest.


If it's just that then I'm fine with it. As long as it's done on a local level, I agree with the idea.

Detroit developed during world war 2 and cold war then effectively died when the war ended.


Detroit didn't die because of the war. It died because it could not catch up with the times.

Again, we're not talking about a communist style planned mega cities, we're talking about a market based planning mega cities.


Then that's fine.

Distribution networks should and do exist, and should be maintained.
Production networks are usually more wasteful.
All major corporations already centralize production and decentralize distribution.
The proposal is more centralization of production and more decentralization of distribution.


Then agree, somewhat.

Disagree.
First, backup systems.
Second, industrial cities or compounds have multiple systems working, just simply in higher concentration next to each other.
Third, industrial compounds and cities are built in safe zones away from natural disasters or the such, and in places easier to defend in case of military necessity.
Those already exist and in use by many countries, stacking factories vertically would only improve on already existing idea by making it even more concentrated, increasing its efficiency, reducing its consumption, saving space, and reducing pollution resulting from it.


1. Backup systems also fail and are prone to. These backup systems also need to be constantly maintained which raises expenses. My proposal will serve as a backup system in it of itself without the drawback of cost.

2. These multiple systems are too reliant on one another. If one fails, the others are affected.

3. If they are distributed instead of centralized, this means that, in the case of a military attack if an airplane dropped a bomb on a factory it would destroy the entire network or "city" since these factories are organized into a self-sufficient network. It's going to take alot more bombs and alot more money to take out the entire network.

Biggest post in a while. :lol: :p


I'm glad you're getting more active in your posting.
User avatar
By Crantag
#14936502
Suntzu wrote:A better graph.

Image

Can you say asymptote? :eek:

Although I despise you as a poster, this was a somewhat worthwhile post.

Of course we well know it isn't a true asymptote.

It is a physical impossibility for it to be truly asymptotic, which may or may not be your real point.

Human population won't reach infinity. The other graph was actually insightful in that it pointed toward eventual stabilization. Given changed technical conditions, this is a possibility--i.e. a prevailing adjustment. We know that the population growth is exponential in nature. There has to be either eventual stabilization, or eventual collapse. Anything else seems like a mathematical impossibility.

Edit: For the record, it doesn't actually even look like an asymptote, though. The slope of the curve lessens at the high end. It's just a chart of course, as well as being a projection, but I thought this was worth adding, although I noticed it on a first glance.
#14936506
We have enough available and fertile hectares in the Guinea plateau alone to exceed our current food production for the entire planet. Likewise, we could fit the entire world's population, comfortably in the state of Texas alone, with each family of 4 having a home and small yard.

Its just nonsense.

If there is any reason to believe that current population is unsustainable its because of resource mismanagement (especially in agriculture) and various human practices and conditions that are highly tenuous, such as our reliance on petroleum and the global system of fiat currency which makes our current addiction to statism even remotely possible.

Much more could be said, but i'll start there to get the conversation started.



This is true only in theory but there are 170+ countries in the world and most of them are third world hellholes that are managed poorly
so overpopulation is indeed a problem

There is enough space for dozens of billions of people but we are reaching the resource cap right now and 1-2 more billions will have a major (bad) impact on the entire planet

also if the entire world will use resources like the average american we are definitely doomed
#14936512
Zionist Nationalist wrote:This is true only in theory but there are 170+ countries in the world and most of them are third world hellholes that are managed poorly
so overpopulation is indeed a problem

There is enough space for dozens of billions of people but we are reaching the resource cap right now and 1-2 more billions will have a major (bad) impact on the entire planet

also if the entire world will use resources like the average american we are definitely doomed


No disagreement, except I still wouldn't use the phrase I highlighted in bold above; because as a conclusion it does not follow from your premise.

If managing-resources is the actual problem, then calling the situation (inaccurately) a population-size-problem is going to do nothing in advancing solutions.

We need to properly define our problems if we are going to have accurate solutions.

That is all. Otherwise, I agree with everything you said.
Last edited by Victoribus Spolia on 01 Aug 2018 19:51, edited 1 time in total.
By anasawad
#14936513
Oxymandias wrote:@anasawad

That isn't particularly relevant to my point unless you are assuming that vertical farms and planned cities would be built by the market which is practically impossible.

Why would it be impossible ? I don't see how a corporation wouldn't view it favorably to magnify their production and reducing the per unit production cost in the same time.
Isn't that what GMOs all about ? corporations spending 10s of billions of dollars just to improve production volume and efficiency ?

Planned cities can only be built if the political system in place allows it to. Vertical farms can only be built if the political system in place allows it to. You need political change before you can apply it. The order required to achieve political change is irrelevant because you need political change before you can get planned cities or vertical farms.

First, lets explain what planned cities look are like, for this example, lets take Hong Kong.
Hong Kong is a city with lots and lots of empty areas around it that are viable for construction, yet the state artificially limit the access of investors to those area in order to boost the realstate market by increasing investment in some areas while cutting it short in others.
The government of Hong Kong plans ahead the development, construction, and expansion of the city, and then both private investors and the state itself act in accordance.
That is how cities are planned. Planned cities doesn't mean that the state is building a city from scratch.

For the need for political change, again, its not needed, the introduction of a new policy to go forward with such projects is needed if the state is the one doing them, or if private corporations are going with them, then a state permit is needed. The political system doesn't have to change entirely to go with large projects.
Planned cities on the other hand need more state supervision and planning, but does not necessarily need the state itself to pursue the construction of a new expansion.

Planned cities if built from scratch like some ghost cities in China do indeed tend to fail since the market didn't lead the decision, but in the same time for China and those ghost cities it doesn't matter, since those cities are being built to boost up the GDP by funneling money into the market through construction companies and whether the cities succeeded or not is a side effect not the main goal.
Also in China, the state is currently planning to establish mega cities by connecting its main coastal cities both with other cities and the surrounding country side of those cities. The state is not building everything itself, rather it plans and supervises the expansion and give incentives for private investors to do the construction and new corporations to set up shop in those areas in order for the plans to go as intended.
Thats how planning a city is done, rarely by building them from scratch.

Also, Political change is social change. Politics represents the opinions and status of the general population. It's why the fact that Trump became president in the first place is so disturbing, because it represents the opinions of the American population and how American society is changing. Politics can be seen as an abstraction of society so if society changes, so does politics. While there is a delay in the change of political systems compared to change in society, the politics of that society change at the same time as the society itself. Also, change doesn't follow in a specific order, it is much more chaotic than that.

Actually no its not.
If we are taking the US as an example, the US population in overwhelming population rejects Trump, the reason he became president is because the establishment is incredibly corrupt, and the choice in the last election was either the establishment (Hillary Clinton) or a dumb as hell lunatic (Donald Trump). So most people threw a wild card and picked Trump. If Bernie Sanders wasn't cheated out of the election, then he'd have won easily.

And while political change does follow social change, its not just a "little late", its way too late.
And even in republics (note I said republics not democracies, big difference and most of the world countries are republics) where there are "democratic" elections, money plays a much bigger role than social changes, but it may seem from afar that social change leads to political change because social changes change market demand patterns and behaviors which changes the economy and the economic changes make political changes happen. This is a feature of capitalism, and even in non-capitalist countries, since they're part of the world, and the world order is capitalist, then the same applies to them.

It's not about wanting those products nor is it about their readiness. People want to build space elevators or research in alternative energy. The issue is that this isn't social or ideological change. Ideological or social change is a change in a person's values. While these people want space elevators or alternative energy, these things aren't values or tied to their values. We need to cultivate a new value in people, the value of progress of never ending growth and limitless potential.

The same as above.
Many people like the idea of space elevators for example, but when the pay time comes, people in general wont pay for it, an example of this is NASA which everyone in the US likes and wants to go to Mars and all, but when the funding part comes in, 50 billion dollars is already considered too much for tax payers to pay and they prefer it goes somewhere else.
So wanting a space elevator is one thing, and paying for it is another. If the people want and are welling to pay for it, then it'll happen. If not, then no.

People in general on the other hand do want cheaper products, do want better living standards, do want cheaper and better food, etc, and they're welling to pay for it.
So if we were to say, we need to put this amount of money to establish this project, but in effect the price of food for example will drop by this percentage, people are going to say yes do spend that tax money there.
And in a capitalist economy, a corporation that does find a way to massively boost production will have much more competitive advantage and burn out competition which will give it even bigger advantage and leverage. Which is why, as stated before, corporations in the agriculture sector already spend 10s of billions of dollars on research in GMOs.

If we have that, then we will get more solutions than just planned cities or vertical farms.

Vertical farms and GMOs and others are some of the solutions thought of to solve the problem.
Infact, the idea of vertical farms came up due to the government trying to find a solution to the problem of inflation in Iran and how to provide better accessibility to basic products in the country. (it was in 2014 during the sanctions, and now the sanctions are back on, its even more likely to see those coming back, since we're already stuffing mountains with nuclear reactors and military basis and weapons factories, why not farms. :p )

1. Planned cities aren't there to increase efficiency and I don't think I have ever heard efficiency used as a justification for building planned cities by any of it's advocates before.

No, whats usually said in the full explanation for planning an expansion for a city is increasing the economic output by expanding the city and moving people from the country side to that city and as such improving their productivity and decreasing the costs of providing services and transportation to far away areas. Which is a long way of saying efficiency since thats literally the definition of market efficiency.

The main benefit of planned cities is how they are supposed to improve the quality of life of it's inhabitants.

Not really, thats the end goal not the direct one; The direct goal is to improve the economic output and productivity which in return would improve living standards.


However, most cities or planned cities fail to take into consideration human psychology so while they provide all the amenities they can, the citizens of the city hate living there because it feels to artificial. Planned cities don't take into consideration what citizens actually want. You may say that this is due to bad planning, but the reason citizens dislike it is because of the fact that the city is planned in the first place.

Dude, almost all cities in the world are planned, the state plans it, introduce the policy and incetivize investors, then supervise the development. Thats how cities are built, pretty much all of them. The development and construction of what the people want is based on market demands.

When a state is planning an expansion for a city lets say, they don't say we want a night club here, and the bar over there, etc. Those are called residential, business, industrial or financial hubs or areas and they are built inside or near an already existing city.
What the state does plan is how the infrastructure, building distribution (i.e how the buildings are organized next to each other), roads, railways if included, subways, utility centers, etc. They say this area is residential, the invested construction company then decides what type of residential complexes to build there based on the market demand. If they said this area should be where the businesses and corporations are, the investors whether private or state owned corporations decide independently where to set their offices, what type of offices or facilities they want to put there or in general what to invest in in that area.
Thats how cities are planned, and all of them are planned.

2. Improving efficiency and distribution of resources won't solve class conflict because class will always try to get more resources than the other regardless of the systems in place. What you need is to sit all the classes and interest groups down and have a dialogue with them. This is call corporatism and it's the organization of a society based on the large interest groups that dominate it such as businessmen, workers, unions, artisans, guilds, entrepreneurs, engineers, etc. who would then work together and construct policies based on their common interests. This is the epitome of class collaboration since everyone has equal say and is represented in the political system..

And you're giving them all more resources, simply the share of each class of the overall income changes.
This is the purpose of income taxes, to redistribute newly created wealth to other classes, and all countries do it. Again, this is why European major countries have better living standards, they improve production and efficiency then introduce a legal system to fairly distribute the newly created wealth and countries with small or no income tax don't.
Though some countries fail in that due to corruption. Namely the US, Since they have legal bribery there (lobbying) and you can already see the results.

1.
There are ways to temporarily satiate the urge for an uprising or revolution. It's like throwing a bone to a dog, you don't give him exactly what he wants but you give him enough of a taste that it stops him from thinking about biting you for a while. And here's the kicker, it always works every time. You get people's expectations so low that they would be fine with anything even remotely better than what they have now and they won't demand for more, they'll just try to hold on to what little they have. There is no political incentive to progress or do things that no one else has ever done. That has to do with how the government is structured.


Unless you have bigger plans than just staying exactly where you are without progress.
If you haven't noticed in the case of Iran, the goal is building an empire, and you need more productivity and progress to do that, and to have that you need to improve living standards.

You have the social incentive wrong. Society does not have a goal, it is merely the organization of human begins of themselves. Society has as much of a goal as any individual person does and like most people, it's complicated and often doesn't know what it wants.

Since we're talking about production and the market, then the consumers' goal is always cheaper and better products. Irregardless of what individual differences there are, cheaper and better products are always wanted.
If we were talking about other topics, then sure social incentive isn't that easy to come by with, but in regards of the market and the economy, generally speaking, it is.


2.
Then why hasn't anyone done any of this? Vertical farms and planned cities have existed for centuries. Why hasn't the market or the government or society acted? For example, 1920s America was a lot like Iran. It was a period of major social upheaval and economic growth yet when Technocracy Inc. proposed the idea of a post-scarcity society and how everyone in the US could have a high standard of living, governments and businessmen tried to stop the idea from spreading. It was even banned by the Canadian government for some time. All the conditions were there so why isn't America a Technocracy? That's because it's more complicated than mere incentives. The state wants to avoid uprising and revolution but it doesn't want to replace itself for something more efficient, it wants to maintain itself even if it's inefficient or outdated. The economy wants to improve production and stability, but it doesn't want a centralized economy that would improve production and stability ten fold because then it wouldn't have any wealth. And society is at the mercy of these two factors.

The US is part technocracy and part oligarchy.
Those are what are known to regular people as "the establishment" and "the deep state".
The deep state refers to the experts and technocrats in general who work and run the government and are not elected officials.
And the establishment is the oligarchy in which those technocrats work for.
See, to have a technocracy, you need the state to be in control first, as such, you need socialistic style state.
If you have a capitalistic state, then you'll get a class of oligarchs deciding the direction and a class of technocrats working for them running the government and going forward in that direction.

1. Right here you literally just admitted that the state needs to change in order for planned cities to become a reality because there is no financial incentive to build them.

Huh ?
How did you get from that line that the state needs to change ?
States introduce new policies and laws and licenses and put in place legal frameworks for specific projects or things all the time without changing the overall political order.
By "political groundwork" I am referring to the policies needed for such projects like establishing a special zones or giving tax incentives or easier licensing or etc in order to go through the project in hand. Just as is done with every other large project.

2. That isn't enough and it also won't attract citizens to the planned cities. All the planned cities we have seen so far that have been built from scratch are all abandoned and have no people living in them. You need to attract people to the cities, not investors otherwise it would just end up at most a playground for the super rich and at worst, an empty waste of money.

Already addressed above.


The amount of planning necessary to take into consideration the emergence and complexity of human social organization would be so little that you couldn't even call it a planned city by that point.

??
Not sure what do you mean by this.


1. Most of Madrid is not planned at all.

2. The portions that are planned look beautiful due to the architecture, not the actual plans.

3. The portions that are planned are also the most painful to walk around in since it's like walking in a highway, it takes forever to get from point A to point B.

1- All of Madrid is planned, this is why its so organized.
2- How some areas looks is irrelevant since thats up to who built them. Only the parks are in most part state owned and not even all of them.
3- True, but you're not to meant to walk around unless your intent is go walking around.
And also the reason why it feels so empty is because it is, the city is dying out as many people are leaving due to the economic conditions, so...

I can't think of any outside of Paris (which was reconstructed in 1850, not after WW2) and some town in New Zealand. Outside of that, I can't think of any at the moment. Paris, after it's reconstruction, is still significantly less planned than many modern planned cities.

All modern cities are planned.
The ones that aren't planned are usually the ones who are not organized and its incredibly hard to go around in them or even implement standard laws in them.

None of the cities you mentioned are emergent.

All of those cities are emergent.
They were all desolate areas with Bedouins living in them until the oil boom came along and turned them into major cities.
You can look up pics of them before and after the oil boom if you'd like to see how they were.

1. A business or capitalist built city would certainly not be planned.

2. Citizens wouldn't be able to live there for free

3. If it is built by investors then investors would need to receive a a portion of the tax revenue.

1- It will still be planned even if private investors built it. Since the government is required to give the licenses and permits to build something, the government decides where to build and the purpose of each area.
2- No one said anything about people living there for free, ofcouse you have to pay to rent or buy an apartment in a new residential area.
3- No they don't, investors do the tax paying, not the tax receiving since thats how investment works.
They do get tax incentives like lower taxes, but they still pay taxes since they'll be making profit.

If it's just that then I'm fine with it. As long as it's done on a local level, I agree with the idea.

Its not like the government will take a piece of desert and build from scratch a single city with the size of a small country and tell everyone to move into it. :eh:
This is how mega cities are built by default.


Detroit didn't die because of the war. It died because it could not catch up with the times.

Yes, and by the times it means the end of the war.
A city built for the war will loose activity and economic output once the war is over.
Detroit is just that. Prospered with the military industrial complex during world war 2 and slightly afterwords during the cold war, then died once its done.

1. Backup systems also fail and are prone to. These backup systems also need to be constantly maintained which raises expenses. My proposal will serve as a backup system in it of itself without the drawback of cost.

2. These multiple systems are too reliant on one another. If one fails, the others are affected.

.


1- You already have to establish backup systems in a production network, the only difference is with centralization you get less maintenance cost for those systems since you wont be to spread out.

2- Each factory has its own internal systems by default, by the general systems we're usually referring to things like electricity, water, loading platforms, etc.
If those failed, whether in a network or in a compound, you'll have much bigger problems on your hand than the factories shutting down. :p

3. If they are distributed instead of centralized, this means that, in the case of a military attack if an airplane dropped a bomb on a factory it would destroy the entire network or "city" since these factories are organized into a self-sufficient network. It's going to take alot more bombs and alot more money to take out the entire network.

Here both have advantages and disadvantages.
And generally it would depend on what type of enemy you're expecting and what type of army a nation has to choose between decentralization and spreading out, or centralization and fortification.
Iran has better chances in centralization since its dealing with much larger enemies and as such fortification gives it an advantage.
The Us has better chances spreading out since its geography disadvantage invaders due to logistics and decentralization makes it even harder to cover all production facilities in the attack.


I'm glad you're getting more active in your posting.

:p
By Truth To Power
#14936517
Zionist Nationalist wrote:This is true only in theory but there are 170+ countries in the world and most of them are third world hellholes that are managed poorly so overpopulation is indeed a problem

That is an absurd non sequitur.
There is enough space for dozens of billions of people but we are reaching the resource cap right now

No. There is no "resource cap." There are only resource misallocations.
and 1-2 more billions will have a major (bad) impact on the entire planet

No. That prediction has been made since Malthus's time, when world population was an order of magnitude smaller, and has yet to come true.
also if the entire world will use resources like the average american we are definitely doomed

No. Americans' resource use may be unsustainable, but that is different from people being doomed. Use of whale oil for lighting was unsustainable 160 years ago, but we are still here and doing fine.
User avatar
By Suntzu
#14936518
Zionist Nationalist wrote:This is true only in theory but there are 170+ countries in the world and most of them are third world hellholes that are managed poorly
so overpopulation is indeed a problem

There is enough space for dozens of billions of people but we are reaching the resource cap right now and 1-2 more billions will have a major (bad) impact on the entire planet

also if the entire world will use resources like the average american we are definitely doomed


I just flew across the United States south to north and then back. One does not realize how much empty space there is until you fly over it. I guess that is why it is call fly over country.

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