Pants-of-dog wrote:Then please demonstrate that your claim is true and there is no other possible reason for this failure to comply.
It was Michael Mann who filed the suit, and therefore his burden to prove that the hockey stick graph was not fraudulent and that he was thereby defamed by Ball. Mann refused to present the evidence to prove his case.
Sivad quoting Judith Curry wrote:Steve McIntyre has quite a different intepretation.
Anyway, it's interesting that Timothy Ball and Stephen McIntyre are both Canadians and Mann is an American who sued them in Canadian court. I guess that's why we haven't heard from @Godstud yet.
Sivad wrote:Whatever, I posted all the info anyone would ever need to understand what a crazy fucking fraud Michael E Mann is and you have graciously demonstrated what ludicrous depths of bullshit someone has to sink to in order to deny it.
It's pretty incredible isn't it? They sue claiming defamation of character, refuse to present evidence at trial, and then expect to be taken seriously thereafter. I've really enjoyed the takedown of so many establishment characters in the last 10 years or so. I'm glad it continues.
Sivad quoting North as House Witness wrote:However, the substantial uncertainties currently present in the quantitative assessment of large-scale surface temperature changes prior to about A.D. 1600 lower our confidence in this conclusion compared to the high level of confidence we place in the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century warming. Even less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that “the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium” because the uncertainties inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual years and decades are larger than those for longer time periods, and because not all of the available proxies record temperature information on such short timescales. We also question some of the statistical choices made in the original papers by Dr. Mann and his colleagues.
I'm not a scientist--although I have a bachelor of science, which principally means that they made me study a lot of math and statistics. Having a lot of experience with trading systems, I know quite a lot about the perils of curve fitting, correlation vs. regression, confidence intervals, p-values, etc. I looked at the variance alone in the TAR forecasts and knew something was wrong. Stephen McIntyre is a lot smarter than I am and uses his PhD in the financial markets as well. He seems to have come across this too, but dug much deeper. Christopher Monckton is another who has poked a few holes in these assessments.
Mann's failure in court was foretold.
Court Battle: Michael Mann Losing, Gives Tim Ball ‘Concessions’Michael Mann, creator of the infamous global warming ‘hockey stick,’ loses lawsuit against climate skeptic, ordered to pay defendant’s costsBeing ordered to pay the defendant's costs suggests the court thinks the case was made in bad faith. It will be interesting to see how Mann's case against Mark Steyn is resolved.
A Cockwomble Reaches for the Hockey StickDelingpole: Michael ‘Hide the Decline’ Mann Loses Defamation LawsuitMICHAEL MANN REFUSES TO PRODUCE DATA, LOSES CASEForbes warned in 2012 that Mann was "courting disaster" with this approach.
ClimateGate Star Michael Mann Courts Legal DisasterBut there were some problems with that graph and the research behind it. Some very big problems. One was that the Medieval Warm Period which occurred between about AD 800 and 1100 along with the Little Ice Age (not a true Ice Age) which occurred between about AD 1350-1850 somehow turned up missing. And as for those Yamal tree samples, they came from only 12 specimens of 252 in the data set… while a larger data set of 34 trees from the same vicinity that weren’t used showed no dramatic recent warming, and warmer temperatures in the Middle Ages.
Scientific critics raise another looming question. Mann’s 1,000-year-long graph was cobbled together using various proxy data derived from ice cores, tree rings and written records of growing season dates up until 1961, where it then applied surface ground station temperature data. Why change in 1961? Well, maybe it’s because that’s when other tree ring proxy data calculations by Keith Briffa at the East Anglia University Climate Research Unit (CRU) began going the other way in a steady temperature decline. After presenting these unwelcome results to Mann and others, he was put under pressure to recalculate them. He did, and the decline became even greater.
As recorded in ClimateGate e-mails, this presented what Mann referred to as a “conundrum” in that the late 20th century decline indicated by Briffa would be perceived by IPCC as “diluting the message”, was a “problem”, and posed a “potential distraction/detraction”. Mann went on to say that the warming skeptics would have a “field day” if Briffa’s declining temperature reconstruction was shown, and that he would “hate to be the one” to give them “fodder”.
In an e-mail sent to Mann and others, CRU’s director Philip Jones reported: “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature [journal] trick…to hide the decline [in global temperatures].” “Mike’s” ( Mann’s) “trick” was to add in real temperatures to each series for the last 20 years from 1979 onwards and from 1961 for Briffa’s, show all of the proxy and surface measurement chartings in different colors on a single graph, and then simply cut off Briffa’s in a spaghetti clutter of lines at the 1961 date.
This is why it's never a good idea to try to bullshit computer heads. I knew just from looking at the variance and what that would mean to the confidence interval that something was wrong--and I am a dilettante at best on the subject. Others like Stephen McIntyre, Timothy Ball, Anthony Watts, Christopher Monckton and others went much further.
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