We made a huge mistake, in how we fought ACC aka AGW. Though, not the one you expect. - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Pollution, global warming, urbanisation etc.
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#15114840
In the 1970s we were warned by a series of books and reports.
We didn't listen. Well, most of you didn't, but me and some others changed our lives.

BTW --- "we" here means humanity as a whole with a few million exceptions out of the pop. of billions.
and BTW --- I think that CO2 releases can be included in "pollution", although I don't remember the report saying that.

The Club of Rome Report outlined 5 things that were increasing or increasing exponentially. They were: population, pollution, food per capita, industria production per capita, and resources being used (aka resources remaining).
. . . They said that if even one was allowed to grow exponentially, by 2050 +/- 20 years the sh!t wold hit the fan. It didn't matter which one, any of them would lead to disaster.
. . . We of course let them all grow, although population growth has slowed. There rest have grown pretty much exponentially. Therefore, we can expect disaster sooner instead of later.

We are right on (or close to) the curves the report predicted for the "business as usual" projection.

I think you expect me to talk about energy use and ind. production. This is not my main point here.

My point here is ---
We have refused to even talk about population growth. Al least, in a serious way toward DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Way back then I proposed that the whole world do something very drastic.
Of coursed, I was shunned by the few who I told about my plan.

Well, now my plan is not drastic enough. We would need a ridiculously drastic plan.
A ridiculously drastic plan has a zero % chance of being adopted.

The problem is there are too many wealthy people in the world. Here wealthy means the top 10% of earners world wide. This makes almost everyone in the developed nations 'wealthy'.

So what we need is something as drastic as a one child limit per woman (or more drastic). We saw what this did in China. It created a generation of people with no brothers or sisters. This created a 2nd generation that has no cousins, aunts, or uncles. The result is people who have no extended family to fall back on. This is not a good way to organize your society.

I don't need to tell you that some religions would avoid the system at any cost. There are at least 3 I know of that would not submit to this.

Going forward, we really will need the more ridiculously drastic plan.
In the 70s my plan was a 1 child per adult system. People who would have no children would get a large sum of money and a retirement pension so that someone else could have anther 1 child. This was to be world wide. Someone like the UN would make the payments.

A more drastic plan would be 1 child per woman. However, how can we mitigate the damage that this does to families over time?

Also, 1 child per woman means a falling population. If a nation brings in immigrants to replace the lost population growth, then you have 2 choices. a] Let them become wealthy and have 1/2 child each, or b] make them 2nd class citizens, who can't have children and wealth.
. . . I suppose there may be a lot of people in poor nations who would rather live as 2nd class citizens of a developed nation than die where they are. But is this ethical?


A ridiculously drastic plan would be less than 1 child per woman. How in the world can this be done ethically? And how can this shrinking and aging population be supported by the tiny working age group? I have no answers I'm willing to share, because they all would be attacked as unethical, and even evil.

Those who deny ACC will be a problem will not grok any of why this is *necessary*.

Denial solves all problems. At least until they become acute and the denier may be dead by then. So, the denier never knows or faces the mess he/she made.
.
Last edited by Steve_American on 22 Aug 2020 08:02, edited 1 time in total.
#15117298
Sivad wrote:doomer boomer predicts malthusian boom doom.


It's not Malthusian to say the wealthy are the problem.

The option not discussed here is whether we can go for reduced resource use by the wealthy (this may pretty much get rid of the wealthy as a category - at least as it's understood now. However, if we have problems convincing people to adopt a one child policy, we'll have similar (perhaps different) problems convincing people to use fewer resources. I mean, there has been a small amount of limit success through basically asking people to be ethical consumers. We need direction from the top down (through democratic solutions - though I can't deny non-democratic societies may manage this as well, I just happen to be committed to democracy, we everyone should), or else to move to a decentralised model of society which is seriously less resource intensive.
#15117305
Global population is expected to decline over the next 50-100 years.

China is expected to shrink to like 700-800 million people or something, eventually. Other nations are expected to shrink as well.

As for energy issues, we have solar, wind, hydro to help.
#15117308
Steve_American wrote:
In the 1970s we were warned

BTW --- "we" here means humanity as a whole with a few million exceptions out of the pop. of billions.
and BTW --- I think that CO2 releases can be included in "pollution", although I don't remember the report saying that.

The Club of Rome Report outlined 5 things that were increasing or increasing exponentially. They were: population, pollution, food per capita, industria production per capita, and resources being used (aka resources remaining).
. . . They said that if even one was allowed to grow exponentially, by 2050 +/- 20 years the sh!t wold hit the fan. It didn't matter which one, any of them would lead to disaster.
. . . We of course let them all grow, although population growth has slowed. There rest have grown pretty much exponentially. Therefore, we can expect disaster sooner instead of later.

We are right on (or close to) the curves the report predicted for the "business as usual" projection.


My point here is ---
We have refused to even talk about population growth. Al least, in a serious way toward DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Way back then I proposed that the whole world do something very drastic.
Of coursed, I was shunned by the few who I told about my plan.

Well, now my plan is not drastic enough. We would need a ridiculously drastic plan.
A ridiculously drastic plan has a zero % chance of being adopted.

The problem is there are too many wealthy people in the world. Here wealthy means the top 10% of earners world wide. This makes almost everyone in the developed nations 'wealthy'.



Going forward, we really will need the more ridiculously drastic plan.
In the 70s my plan was a 1 child per adult system. People who would have no children would get a large sum of money and a retirement pension so that someone else could have anther 1 child. This was to be world wide. Someone like the UN would make the payments.

A more drastic plan would be 1 child per woman. However, how can we mitigate the damage that this does to families over time?

Also, 1 child per woman means a falling population. If a nation brings in immigrants to replace the lost population growth, then you have 2 choices. a] Let them become wealthy and have 1/2 child each, or b] make them 2nd class citizens, who can't have children and wealth.
. . . I suppose there may be a lot of people in poor nations who would rather live as 2nd class citizens of a developed nation than die where they are. But is this ethical?


A ridiculously drastic plan




1980s. The research done in the Seventies was secret.

You didn't read it, hardly the same thing as it not happening. The not entirely satisfactory conclusion was that giving women control of the their lives with medical care and helping them start micro-businesses would reduce family size.

The people that emit carbon need to stop. That would be us, not some peasant in Zimbabwe.

To do something beyond our borders is going to require a global authority for something of this magnitude.
#15117456
Rancid wrote:Global population is expected to decline over the next 50-100 years.

China is expected to shrink to like 700-800 million people or something, eventually. Other nations are expected to shrink as well.

No, not really.

Image
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Pr ... OP/TOT/900
Image
So, the median projection is that China's population will decrease about 400 million from what it is now, having peaked around 2030; and for world population to peak around 2100, at perhaps 3 billion more than now.

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