- 27 Apr 2023 16:50
#15272473
Personally, I don't think we can know for sure just what causes climate change or the increase in temperatures absent well-designed experiments (or even quasi-experiments) to test any hypotheses, which are impossible to conduct. As such, we're left with worse options like seeing which theories fit the data best and (just as importantly) how do they perform out of sample (i.e. if their predictions have been correct).
At least as far as global temperatures are concerned, even the old mainstream models seem to have gotten the trends mostly right, at least those built since the 1980s.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-ho ... l-warming/
It seems the current state of climate models used to predict future temperatures is spot on for the most part, based on the kind of research we can do at least. As such, unless somebody provides an alternative theory (with its respective models and projections) that performs better, I think it's reasonable to at least accept current theory is as close to be right as it gets.
At least as far as global temperatures are concerned, even the old mainstream models seem to have gotten the trends mostly right, at least those built since the 1980s.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-ho ... l-warming/
It seems the current state of climate models used to predict future temperatures is spot on for the most part, based on the kind of research we can do at least. As such, unless somebody provides an alternative theory (with its respective models and projections) that performs better, I think it's reasonable to at least accept current theory is as close to be right as it gets.