- 05 May 2014 11:47
#14401670
Events leading up to the June 1914 crisis cascaded out of control and plunged the old continent into the first of its great catastrophes. Nobody intended it, yet in the end, nobody was able to prevent it.
100 years later, are we in a similar situation? What are the parallels? Without any attempt at being systematic and off the top of my head, I can see the following parallels:
- Disintegration of an empire (Ottoman / Soviet Union) leaving a void (Balkans / Eastern Europe) to be occupied by nationalism (Serb / Ukrainian) that could serve as trigger for a clash of the empires (central powers against triple entente / West against Russia-China) with one empire (Austria-Hungary / the West) prospering but in internal decay.
- The collapse of one empire (Ottoman / Soviet Union) benefited another empire (Austria-Hungary took part of Balkans / Nato-EU took part of Easter Europe), but the very expansion planted the seed that did/could lead to a global conflict.
- 1914 like 2014 followed decades of rapid growth in the sciences/technology (not least in armaments) and in material wealth.
- The competition for resources, land and markets opposing Germany against GB in 1914 coalesced into a confrontation of the central powers against the triple entente. Today, competition for resources and markets oppose the West against Russia and China.
I think there are plenty of other parallels. The question really is whether the same causes will lead to the same results or whether it is possible to learn from the mistakes of the past.
Seeing how little will there is to understand the "legitimate interest of the other side" today, there is reason to be pessimistic.
What do you think?
100 years later, are we in a similar situation? What are the parallels? Without any attempt at being systematic and off the top of my head, I can see the following parallels:
- Disintegration of an empire (Ottoman / Soviet Union) leaving a void (Balkans / Eastern Europe) to be occupied by nationalism (Serb / Ukrainian) that could serve as trigger for a clash of the empires (central powers against triple entente / West against Russia-China) with one empire (Austria-Hungary / the West) prospering but in internal decay.
- The collapse of one empire (Ottoman / Soviet Union) benefited another empire (Austria-Hungary took part of Balkans / Nato-EU took part of Easter Europe), but the very expansion planted the seed that did/could lead to a global conflict.
- 1914 like 2014 followed decades of rapid growth in the sciences/technology (not least in armaments) and in material wealth.
- The competition for resources, land and markets opposing Germany against GB in 1914 coalesced into a confrontation of the central powers against the triple entente. Today, competition for resources and markets oppose the West against Russia and China.
I think there are plenty of other parallels. The question really is whether the same causes will lead to the same results or whether it is possible to learn from the mistakes of the past.
Seeing how little will there is to understand the "legitimate interest of the other side" today, there is reason to be pessimistic.
What do you think?