Break Up Of Russian Empire During Civil War - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Inter-war period (1919-1938), Russian civil war (1917–1921) and other non World War topics (1914-1945).
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#14221007
There were several states and polities formed after the Bolshevik Revolution. All of them were defeated and integrated into the Soviet Union.

*cough*Poland*cough*
#14221248
I think it's likely that there still would have been some kind of Russian rump state even if there had been significant fragmentation. I also think it a strong possibility that some other faction would have emerged in this larger central state, that would have wanted to retake what had once been the Russian Empire.

The other consideration is that the new statelets would probably have become to varying extents foreign satelites. Poland for example had a policy of promoting separatism as a means of containing Russia during the period. Japan probably could have seen some value in securing the Far East for themselves. Factions in the Turkish government might have had some interest in the Caucasus. Britain might have been interested in Central Asia as a buffer and extention to their existing foothold.
#14222134
It's an interesting what if because a lot of regional actors (or perhaps factions within them) who might have been interested in messing around in what had traditionally been Russia's backyard probably didn't get the opportunity due to the Red victory, and hence they never came to prominence and were mostly forgotten. So Pan-Turkism wasn't hugely popular compared to the more inward focus Ataturk went with... but how much of that was a tactical consideration? I read somewhere in passing for example there was a fair degree of support for the Basmachi 'rebellion'... but once that was finally crushed anything more was a pipe dream.
#14224235
Smilin' Dave wrote:I think it's likely that there still would have been some kind of Russian rump state even if there had been significant fragmentation. I also think it a strong possibility that some other faction would have emerged in this larger central state, that would have wanted to retake what had once been the Russian Empire.

Yes it was fear of this that cooled the new states support for the Whites. Most people didn't rate the Bolsheviks chances of survival. In their early period they were very much the Claudius of regimes. In some ways this underestimation continued into world war II. It wasn't just Hitler and Nazi ideologues that seriously underestimated the Soviet Unions capabilities.
#14224250
Smilin' Dave wrote:It's an interesting what if because a lot of regional actors (or perhaps factions within them) who might have been interested in messing around in what had traditionally been Russia's backyard probably didn't get the opportunity due to the Red victory, and hence they never came to prominence and were mostly forgotten. So Pan-Turkism wasn't hugely popular compared to the more inward focus Ataturk went with... but how much of that was a tactical consideration? I read somewhere in passing for example there was a fair degree of support for the Basmachi 'rebellion'... but once that was finally crushed anything more was a pipe dream.


I don't see Turkey having been greatly able to affect Central Asia, and it does seem like Ataturk would have had to be far more inward facing to strengthen Turkey. I think the migration w/ Greece came in the early to mid twenties, right? Up to that point, war with Greece would've been a bigger concern, I'd think.

I would imagine Britain and Persia would have been the bigger concerns. China was in the mist of it's own revolution, Mongolia wasn't too powerful I don't believe (though I suppose they could've made a bigger landgrab), which sort've leaves those two to invade transoxnia, and the caucuses in the case of Iran. You did bring up Japan in the Far-East, and the Revolution would've been a good time to invade but I'm not sure about their preoccupations at that time.
#14224583
You might be right about Turkey. Would depend on the opportunity available and the relative 'cost' of taking advantage.

The other thing about China is for a long time Soviet influence in what is now Xinjiang province was quick significant. There were even a few conflicts in the area, proxy wars etc. No idea what the balance of power was like in the 1920s.

Without Soviet intervention, Mongolia might have been a bit odd. IIRC it ended up being the Red Army that tipped out Ungern Sternberg from Mongolia, so without a strong state to remove him from power (China wasn't in a good position to do so at the time) the already bizarre tale of "the mad baron" could have gone on even longer.

For Japan it would be mostly a strategic consideration - push Russian influence out of the Pacific, expand the foothold established in Korea which might in turn open up opportunities in China. There wasn't much in terms of natural resources at the time available. Apparently some of the bigger industries set up offices there, but I don't see anything about them starting any big projects. The intervention at the time was quick large and ran until 1922:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_duri ... tervention

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